Political handicapper extraordinaire Larry Sabato of the U. of Virginia must actually hang out on campus to name his outlook for first term House members "the freshman fifteen." One of those is our own:
IOWA's 2nd DISTRICT: Iowa City, Cedar Rapids, Burlington
Representative: Dave Loebsack (D)
Outlook: Leans Democratic
Rep. Dave Loebsack, an ex-Political Science professor (quite a noble profession we must note), defeated ex-Rep. Jim Leach in 2006, taking advantage of the Democratic wave that even swept away Leach who voted against the Iraq use of force resolution. Leach was primarily a victim of party ID in a district that favored each of the past two Democratic presidential nominees by double digit margins. Earlier this year, Loebsack actually wrote a bill that would name a building after Leach, perhaps trying to smooth over some feathers he ruffled by accepting PAC donations, something Leach shunned during his time in office. Loebsack is definitely trying to endear himself to the district, but he doesn't seem to have the same fit with the district that Leach managed in his 30 years as its congressman. The rumor mill has been quiet about possible challengers, but don't expect Loebsack to escape uncontested.
Not the same fit, does that mean the slacks are a little tight? Nine of the fifteen on the list are Dems shown as "toss-ups," so by that standard Dave is in good shape. Dave looks in good shape to me; must be that bike ride across the district last summer. Bruce Braley must also be working out since he's kept off the freshman fifteen.
Insert the standard analysis here: the real anomaly was not the Loebsack win but was Leach holding the Dem-leaning district so long in the first place.
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