District of the Day: Senate District 50, House Districts 99 and 100

District of the Day: Senate District 50, House Districts 99 and 100

Senate District 50

Registration: D 17476, R 8200, N 13251, total 38953, D+ 9276
Incumbent: Pam Jochum, D-Dubuque

Our last district Draws Itself, as Dubuque is 94.6% of ideal district size. That's down from 98.6% of a district 10 years ago, and just over a whole district in 1990 when a small piece had to be carved out. This decade, to bring the population up, Sageville and the north chunk of the highly fragmented Dubuque Township are added. Redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering occasionally does work for the Dubuque city planning department; I count at least seven noncontiguous pieces of three different townships here.

None of this really matters much in a Democratic stronghold like this. Jochum moved smoothly over to the Senate in 2008 (a 70% win over a Some Dude) after 16 years in the House, when Mike Connolly retired. Her other 2008 win was getting the state constitution language modernized with the passage of what everyone called the "idiot amendment."

The line across Dubuque shifts, but there's still a north district and a south district, as there was in the 1990s as well.

House District 99

Registration: D 8894, R 4638, N 6813, total 20355, D+ 4256
Incumbent: Pat Murphy, D-Dubuque

Then-Speaker Pat Murphy was almost a victim of the 2010 zeitgeist. He'd won with a typical 69% in 2008, but Republican insurance agent Paul Kern held Murphy to 52-48 last year. It was Murphy's closest race since squeaking in by 91 votes in a 1989 special. Murphy took himself out as Democratic leader soon after the statewide results took him out as speaker.

2010 may have been a wake-up call, but things should be better for Murphy now. Party leadership means a lot of campaigning for other people instead of doorknocking south Dubuque. It also puts a special target on your back (ask Mike Gronstal). There wasn't a similar Republican tend in the district just to the south...

House District 100

Registration: D 8582, R 3562, N 6438, total 18598, D+ 5020
Incumbent: Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque

... where Chuck Isenhart won a second term with about the same 60something margin he had in 2008. The seat was open that year with Jochum moving over to the Senate. Isenhart won a three way primary with a clear majority. He had a second primary from Some Dude in 2010, winning with 86%.

The line across Dubuque pivots a bit, moving north in the west and south on the riverfront. Isenhart has the Loras campus and most of downtown. everything from the Illinois bridge north; Murphy has University of Dubuque and most everything south of Asbury Road.

A RAGBRAI only takes a week to cross the state; we've spent ten weeks. But much like a RAGBRAI, our journey through Iowa started at the Missouri and ends at the Mississippi. Our very last district line, between House 99 and 100, reaches the Mississippi River at the Julien Dubuque Bridge. Can't think of a more appropriate way to wrap this up.

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District of the Day: Senate District 49, House Districts 97 and 98

District of the Day: Senate District 49, House Districts 97 and 98



Senate District 49

Registration: D 13524, R 10139, N 16918, total 40602, D+ 3385
No Incumbent (?)

There's already an announced candidate for this seat and a second contender mulling it over, even though we don't even know if it will be on next year's ballot. Odd-numbered seats normally run on the gubernatorial cycle, but this is the only odd number seat with no incumbent in residence on Map Day.

Democrat Tod Bowman beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes last year in old Senate 13, to become the only freshman Democrat in the Senate. That seat included the city of Clinton and northern Clinton County. It went north to pull in all of Jackson County, where Bowman lives in Maquoketa. It also had a small piece of Dubuque County, up to the south city limits.

The new district turns around and faces south. Clinton County is whole, and northern Scott County is included (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). Thus a district that was maybe half Clinton County is now about 3/4, and a district that had a Democratic edge of 7,500 registered voters sees that lead cut in half. Naeve actually won the Clinton County part of the district by about 500 votes. Bowman rolled up his winning margin in Jackson County, which is now gone. And there squats the toad, because Bowman is paired with fellow Democrat Tom Hancock of Epworth up in new Senate 29.

Naeve has already announced here. And Clinton Mayor Rodger Holm may or may not also be running on the GOP side.

But since Bowman was just elected last year, in an old district that overlaps this new district, he can hold over till 2014 if he moves south. Bowman can also hold over in District 29... but only if Hancock retires. (Hancock has to run either way, because his old district was even so his four year 2008 term expires.) The Democratic margin is better in District 29, and the two Democrats have till February to work things out. If no other candidate runs, perhaps former local businessman William Drayton may be interested.

House District 97

Registration: D 6174, R 5931, N 9044, total 21161, D+ 243
Incumbent: Steve Olson, R-DeWitt

Olson went to the House in 2002 when the Clinton-Camanche area was redrawn . He got a relatively close 56-44 race in 2008 but then went unopposed in 2010, which shouldn't happen in what was a near even swing seat.

And it still is a swing seat, getting even a little more Democratic. In Clinton County, Olson keeps Camanche, DeWitt and everything west. On the north, Lost Nation stays in the district and Delmar is added. The changes are marginal in Scott as Olson swaps a couple Bettendorf-bordering townships: Pleasant Valley is out, Lincoln is in. He keeps Le Claire, Princeton, and most of the Wapsi River border; Donahue and Long Grove are carved out and sent south to Ross Paustian's district.

House District 98

Registration: D 7350, R 4208, N 7874, total 19441, D+ 3142
Incumbent: Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton

The District Draws Itself, Boyee: In the 2000 Census, the city of Clinton dropped below 1 percent of the state population for the first time, and instead of getting split down the middle got kept together. That meant a pair-up of Republican Clyde Bradley and Democrat Polly Bukta, but Bradley retired.

When Bukta retired in 2010 she backed attorney Mary Wolfe, who was nominated with no primary (in contrast to the four-way open seat Senate primary that Bowman went through). Republicans had the best circumstances they could get: an open seat, a good cycle, and a credible candidate in former school board member David Rose. But Rose fell 424 votes short.

Since we're in The District Draws Itself range (city of Clinton population=88% of ideal district size) there's little change in Wolfe's party margin. Continued population loss in the city means adding Low Moor (so small on the map scale that I had to read the legislation to see if it was in or out) and three small towns and townships on the Clinton-Jackson line: Charlotte, Goose Lake and Andover.

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District of the Day: Senate District 48, House Districts 95 and 96

District of the Day: Senate District 48, House Districts 95 and 96



Senate District 48

Registration: D 11553, R 11552, N 15559, total 38706, D + 1
No Incumbent

House District 95

Registration: D 6453, R 5485, N 7317, total 19287, D + 968
Open seat: incumbent Nate Willems, D-Lisbon running for Senate

New House 95 bears so little resemblance to the House 29 where Nate Willems won two terms that you can't even really call it the same district. The old district was a half Linn, half Johnson seat. This seat is all in Linn, and the only overlap is the Mt.Vernon-Lisbon metro area and Springville just to the north. It adds most of the rest of north and east rural Linn County -- basically, Palo, everything north of Robins, and the whole eastern border. Most of that was Kraig Paulsen's or Nick Wagner's. That makes up 90% or a district; the southeast corner of Buchanan (Rowley and four townships) gets thrown in to balance the Census count.

The Mt. Vernon-Lisbon area has been home base for several legislators in a row: Dave Osterberg, one-term Republican Lynn Schulte, and Ro Foege. Foege announced his retirement just before the 2008 filing deadline, and Willems won handily in 2008 and by a surprisingly narrow 53-47 in 2010. (Still, that's not bad in a GOP wave year; Foege lost essentially the same turf to Schulte in 1994, coming back to win in `96).

Since Willems has to run on mostly new turf anyway, he may as well try for the move up. The other half of the Senate district includes Anamosa, where he grew up. So this district is good for him even though it's the very definition of a swing seat, with a Democratic registration edge as of Map Day of ONE voter. And that was before the Loebsacks started packing. Luckily for Democrats, The Senate seat is  even-numbered so it votes on the higher turnout presidential cycle. As for the House seat, Mt. Vernon has long had in influence in Linn County beyond its size.

House District 96

Registration: D 5100, R 6067, N 8242, total 19419, R+ 967
No incumbent Lee Hein, R-Monticello (?)

UPDATE Later that same evening: An alert reader notes this post:

Rep. Lee Hein (R-Monticello) has announced he intends to run for re-election in House District 96.

After redistricting, district 96 is comprised of all of Delaware County and portions of Jones County.

Hein is the third generation to work on his family farm operation, growing corn and soybeans along with raising hogs and cattle. He has been very active in the Iowa Farm Bureau, the Iowa Farm Business Association, and the Jones County Pork Producers and Cattlemen’s Association...

In fairness, this is kind of a My District Just Not My House thing. No word in the post about where Hein will be sleeping at night while he "work(s) on his family farm operation" which is just east of the district line. Hein was paired up with fluke winner Brian Moore (R-Zwingle) in Jackson County based House 58.

In the 2001 map, Jones County was in one House district and Delaware County was split. This decade it's the other way around, as Delaware stays whole and Jones is split. Most of the land in Jones goes east to House 58, but most of the people, in population centers Anamosa and Monticello, are in this district. As a whole, Jones is a little bigger than Delaware, so this is a more even split, something like 55-45 Delaware rather than 60-40 Jones.  If it comes to an open seat primary, those kinds of friends and neighbors factors make a difference.

Freshman Republican Lee Hein lives just east of the lines in rural Monticello and is paired with fellow Republican Brian Moore. But Hein, who beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach in 2010, is a family farmer and not mobile. The more likely GOP carpetbagger is Steve Lukan of New Vienna...



...who isn't paired but got a strongly Democratic district. He's had most of Delaware County, including population center Manchester, for his whole decade in office.

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District of the Day: Senate District 47, House Districts 93 and 94

District of the Day: Senate District 47, House Districts 93 and 94

Is President Obama planning his schedule around the Deeth Blog? It can't be a mere coincidence that he visits Bettendorf the same day that District Of The Day does.

Senate District 47

Registration: D 12535, R 14415, N 16881, total 43865, R+ 1880
Incumbent: Roby Smith, R-Davenport

In Bettendorf and east Davenport, the Republican primary has been the big deal, as two consecutive incumbents have been knocked off in this district. In 2006, longtime moderate Maggie Tinsman lost to newcomer Dave Hartsuch, who then BARELY won the general over Phyllis Thede. Hartsuch quickly established himself as the Senate's leading hard-right crazy, and lost a landslide to Bruce Braley in the 2008 congressional race. (He was pointedly excluded from John McCain's October `08 visit to the QC.)

In 2010 it was Hartsuch who lost his primary, thus giving him the David Levy No-prize as the only Republican incumbent who sought re-election and failed, as no GOP incumbents lost in the general. (Democrats did, however, pick up one OPEN House seat, Dan Muhlbauer in Carroll.)

The winner was Roby Smith, who had lost a 2006 House race one district to the west. The primary with Hartsuch was more a matter of emphasis than actual policy differences; Hartsuch was about social issues especially Teh Gay while Smith was about Business.

Democrats were optimistic enough that they, too, had a primary. Phyllis Thede's husband David was favored, but lost a bit of an upset to Richard Clewell. In retrospect, Democratic hopes to win this seat probably vanished when Hartsuch lost the primary, as Smith handily won the general with 59%.

The lines change little. Bettendorf (along with the enclaved cities of Riverdale and Panorama Park) remains whole and remains the anchor. In Davenport, the lines remain Brady (Highway 61) for the lost part. Pleasant Valley Township is added to the east of Bettendorf. The district gains about 800 Republicans, which could be useful for the party if Smith gets primaried from the right...

House District 93

Registration: D 6963, R 6440, N 8179, total 21604, D + 523
Incumbent: Phyllis Thede, D-Davenport

David Thede's Senate primary loss last year precluded the chance that Iowa would see its first husband and wife legislative team since the Republican Hesters (Senator Jack and Representative Joan) left office in 1994. As noted, Phyllis had run for the Senate seat in 2006, falling just 436 votes short of Hartsuch. In 2008 she set her sights on the House and finished off another two-candidate family, the Van Fossens. Jim, the dad, had lost to Elesha Gayman in 2006. Phyllis beat beat Jamie Van Fossen, the son, 56-44.

Republicans made a serious comeback effort in 2010 with former Davenport city council member Carla Batchelor, but Thede held on by 233 votes. Given that margin, the line changes are significant, as Thede loses more than half of what had been an 1145 Democratic registration edge. Thede's district shifts east, losing part of downtown Davenport and everything north of 53rd Street, and picking up a bigger piece of west Bettendorf.

House District 94

Registration: D 5572, R 7975, N 8702, total 22261, R+ 2403
Incumbent: Linda Miller, R-Bettendorf

The Republican primary doesn't always settle things in Bettendorf. After Linda Miller knocked off moderate Joe Hutter in the same 2006 primary where Hartsuch teabagged Tinsman, Hutter continued his re-election bid as an independent. Democrats didn't have a horse in that race, which Miller won easily. She went unopposed in 2008 and 2010.

This is still basically the Bettendorf district, though a slightly bigger piece gets carved out; at 33,217 population, Bettendorf is just a little too big for The District Draws Itself. Miller picks up the northwest part of Davenport from Thede, and Pleasant Valley Township east of the city limits. This gives her a slightly stronger GOP registration edge.

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District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

Senate District 46

Registration: D 12145, R 11684, N 16335, total 40178, D + 461
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Davenport and Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine

Our last week of District Of The Day begins with our last two-incumbent seat. A different pair of House districts gets combined, pairing up two Republican senators from two different counties. This new combined seat is exactly half and half: one House seat that's all Muscatine, one that's all Scott. (Specifics under each.) Making matters worse, it's a swing district with a very slight Democratic tilt, and both of the House districts have been won by Democrats in recent years.

Jim Hahn of Muscatine went to the House in 1990. He moved over to the Senate in 2004 when long-timer Dick Drake retired. That district went north into Jeff Kaufmann's Cedar County based House district. Hahn loses all of Cedar County, and the northern tier of Muscatine, and a tiny piece of Johnson that he won't miss much.

What he gets instead is a chunk of western Scott County and Shawn Hamerlinck. The Davenport city council member knocked off Democrat Frank Wood in 2008 by just 384 votes. That district went north into Republican Steve Olson's House district that was about half rural-suburban north and east Scott County and half rural-suburban south and west Clinton County.

Hamerlinck had kept a relatively low profile until a couple weeks back, when he told a delegation of students testifying about education funding to "go home." Most bets are that Hahn, who'll be 76 be Election Day 2012, calls it quits. Will Hamerlinck also "go home" after 2012?

House District 91

Registration: D 6054, R 6166, N 7394, total 19620, R+ 112
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine.

When Hahn went to the Senate in 2004, Republican Barry Brauns tried a comeback after a two-year hiatus. But Nathan Reichert, who had run an unexpectedly close race in a 1995 special election for county auditor, won a big upset to become the first Democrat to take the Muscatine district in recent memory. He stayed atop the target list but beat the incumbent sheriff in 2006 and a city council member in 2008, only to sink beneath the wave in 2010. (Reichert may be interested in a comeback, either here or in the Senate race.)

Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP, winning by 1500 votes. This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer.

House District 92

Registration: D 6091, R 5518, N 8941, total 20558, D + 573
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott

No one really thought Elesha Gayman to have a chance in 2006, when the netroots activist shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen. Gayman set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature.

Gayman had a target on her back from day one in this rural-urban split district in northwest Davenport and western Scott County. Republicans recruited Farm Bureau leader Ross Paustian. But Gayman, who was briefly reported as a loser on Election Night 2008 until the absentees came in, held Paustian to 47% in the Obama wave.

Gayman's retirement - an odd term to use for a 32 year old - days before the 2010 filing deadline was just as surprising as her election. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious effort, but Paustian had never stopped running after 2008 and won with 57%. He's kept a relatively low profile his first session.

The district keeps almost the same lean, a very slight D tilt, on paper. That should help Frank Wood, who joins Bill Heckroth and Rich Olive as former Democratic Senators attempting comebacks on the House side. (Anyone checked in with Staci Appel?) Wood, who announced June 15, narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.

As for the lines, the city portion shifts north (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. He loses Buffalo and gains the city of Donahue, and keeps Eldridge, Long Grove, Walcott and Blue Grass.

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District of the Day: Senate District 45, House Districts 89 and 90

District of the Day: Senate District 45, House Districts 89 and 90

Senate District 45

Registration: D 15353, R 7583, N 16455, total 39421, D + 7770
Incumbent: Joe Seng, D-Davenport

Last decade saw a major map rewrite in Scott County, and two legislators, Republican Dave Millage and Democrat Pat Deluhery, bailed to run unsuccessful statewide. This time, all the districts are basically recognizable. There's no open seats and no pair-ups.

After winning one term in the House as a post-primary replacement candidate, veterinarian Joe Seng (does the double honorific Senator Doctor Seng that he seems to prefer annoy anyone else?) won this seat easily in 2002. After going unopposed in 2006, he beat Some Dude Republican Mark Riley with 62% in 2010.

What was a vertical strip through the middle third of Davenport moves south and west and partway out of the city. The changes make this solidly Democratic district about 700 Democrats stronger.

House District 89

Registration: D 7327, R 4688, N 8576, total 20605, D+ 2639
Incumbent: Jim Lykam, D-Davenport

Lykam won one term in 1988, got knocked off in by Steve Grubbs in `90, then came back on friendlier turf in 2002, friendly enough that he drew a bye in 2010. (In 2006 he beat one Roby Smith, who we'll hear from next Tuesday). That turf, new in west central Davenport, stays just about as friendly this decade. He loses a couple precincts in the north, where the district used to go to the Davenport-Eldridge line, and shifts west to the Davenport city limits.

House District 90

Registration: D 8026, R 2895, N 7879, total 18816, D+ 5131
Incumbent: Cindy Winckler, D-Davenport

Winckler knocked off one-term Republican John Sunderbruch in 2000 and has been mostly solid since. Republicans made a relatively serious effort last cycle with city council member Ray Ambrose. (Trivia: Davenport was the last city in the state with a partisan city council. They voted to go non-partisan in 1995. The code section allowing partisan city councils remains on the books even though no one uses it.) Ambrose held Winckler to a relatively close 55%, with dismal turnout. That may be the max for the GOP on this turf, as Winckler's margins are usually closer to 70-30.

The district shifts south and west, taking in most of southwest Davenport in wards 1 and 3. Winckler also moves east along the riverfront by what looks like one precinct, which gives her almost all of Davenport's Illinois border. It expands outside the city limit to include the city of Buffalo, which gives the district a nice long skinny shape that redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering likes. The changes make the seat even more Democratic.

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District of the Day: Senate District 44, House Districts 87 and 88

District of the Day: Senate District 44, House Districts 87 and 88



Senate District 44

Registration: D 15807, R 10288, N 13113, total 39229, D+ 5519
Incumbent: Tom Courtney, D-Burlington

Here's a good illustration of the ripple effect of redistricting. A triple-up two districts to the west in 2001 led to significantly different lines for Gene Fraise of Fort Madison and an empty district in Burlington. The beneficiary was Tom Courtney, who slid comfortably into the seat without without GOP opposition (he beat an independent Some Dude) in 2002 and no opposition at all two years later. The Republicans finally tried in `08; David Kerr only scored 40% but carried Louisa.

The revised district keeps Des Moines and Louisa counties intact. Courtney also keeps a chunk of western Muscatine County, which grows. Despite that the party margin is almost identical.

But it's polarized; the Courtney Senate seat is made of of one heavily Democratic House seat and another that's dead even.

House District 87

Registration: D 9569, R 4099, N 6322, total 20006, D+ 5470
Incumbent: Dennis Cohoon, D-Burlington

Another District Draws Itself seat; Burlington's population is 84% of ideal House district size. West Burlington historically was carved off, but now they're together and are 94% of a district. Lose three townships to the north, add one on the south, and that's Dennis Cohoon's district. He's been in the House since 1987 and sometimes gets an opponent. Some Dude Dave Selmon actually held Cohoon to 59% in last year's toxic climate.

House District 88

Registration: D 6238, R 6189, N 6791, total 19223, D+ 49
Incumbent: Tom Sands, R-Wapello

The Des Moines Register recently dubbed part of this district "the Hispanic Highway" - Iowa Highway 70 from West Liberty to Nichols, Conesville, and the Columbus Junction area. This is the descendent of the district I ran in two maps ago, though I moved north and it moved south. Espanol was already common at the door 15 years ago, and this census both West Liberty and Conesville reported Hispanic majorities in the census with Columbus Junction just short at 48%.

The current version of the district got a bizarre start in 2002. My former opponent, Barry Brauns, got paired up with fellow Republican Jim Hahn in a very unbalanced pair: Hahn's whole district plus Brauns' one precinct. He "moved" to a post office box in Nichols, then bailed on the race just after the primary. (Brauns "moved back" soon after to try for a comeback, but we'll discuss that Monday.)

The subsequent Republican convention nominated banker Tom Sands, then of Columbus Junction (he's now moved downstream to Wapello). Democrats look at the lines in Des Moines County and hope for the best, and have made some credible efforts, but Sands has lasted a decade now. The toughest challenge was in 2008, when former Columbus City mayor Frank Best held him to just 53%. Despite that, Sands got a bye in 2010.

Sands keeps the same basic configuration, with Louisa as the core of the district. In Des Moines County, he keeps the rural and small towns west of the city, but loses West Burlington to Cohoon. The seat expands north geographically, making up for population loss; no place was hit harder by the 2008 flood than Louisa County. Sands adds most of the northern tier of Muscatine County: West Liberty, Atalissa, Moscow, and rural Wilton, though the city of Wilton itself stays with Jeff Kaufmann. Sands keeps Nichols and Conesville in western Muscatine but drops Fruitland (the fruit in question would be melons) south of Muscatine city.

The result is a dead-even swing seat. Democrats are hoping to recruit Danville mayor Roger Doofenshmirtz, but Doofenschmirtz has not made his party preferences clear. Repeated scandals involving his older brother could also derail his campaign.

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District of the Day: Senate District 43, House Districts 85 and 86

District of the Day: Senate District 43, House Districts 85 and 86

Senate District 43

Registration: D 22160, R 8289, N 17096, total 47787, D+ 13,871; the most Democratic Senate district in the state,and I live in it.
Incumbent: Joe Bolkcom, D-Iowa City

Joe Bolkcom went from the Board of Supervisors to the Senate in 1998 and it's been quiet since. Bolkcom's only opposition, primary or general, was an independent in 2006. Joe stays till 2014. Republicans last ran a state senate candidate in the Iowa City based district in 1986.

The district doesn't quite draw itself, as Iowa City is just a little bigger than a Senate district. In the 1990s a piece of the north side was carved out and sent to Bob Dvorsky in Coralville; last decade the excess chunk was on the west side instead. That basic configuration stays, with one more west side precinct taken out of Bolkcom's turf and sent to Dvorsky's. There's also a panhandle to the south; see below.

Within Bolkcom's district, the line splitting Iowa City's two House seats rotates. Instead of an east side seat and a west side and downtown seat, we have a north and south seat and some real estate implications.

House District 85

Registration: D 11967, R 4535, N 9234, total 25888, D+ 7432
Incumbent: Vicki Lensing, D-Iowa City

The line across Iowa City for the most part follows Highway 6, Burlington Street, and Muscatine Avenue, with one deviation south (precinct 19). The area north of the line is the most Democratic House district in the state.

When longtime legislatve legend Minnette Doderer retired in 2000, Lensing won a competitive primary and a less competitive general election. That's the last time she saw any opposition at all. This becomes an entirely Iowa City district for the first time. In 2000 Lensing had University Heights; last decade she had the rural fragments of East Lucas township.

House District 86

Registration: D 10193, R 3754, N 7862, total 21899, D+ 6439
Incumbent: Mary Mascher, D-Iowa City

The University of Iowa campus gets split; under the old map it was almost all in Mary Mascher's district. Mascher won her first term in 1994 and last saw Republican opposition in 1996. There was a self-starter Some Dude independent in 2008.

Mascher had to move back into her district when the map was announced. The one west side precinct that got shifted west to Dave Jacoby's district happened to contain Mascher's house. The new lines more resemble her 1990's district and include her 1990's residence.

And my 2011 residence. 14 years in Iowa City proper and I've never been able to vote for Mary before. My last two addresses have literally been across the street into Lensing's district.

Packing could be the toughest part of the campaign, as the line changes leave this as the third most Democratic seat in the state. In a nod to redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering, the lines drop south to pick up the city of Hills and an empty piece of rural ground; locals, that means the Izaak Walton League area that's being bought out as floodplain.

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District of the Day: Senate District 42, House Districts 83 and 84

District of the Day: Senate District 42, House Districts 83 and 84

Senate District 42

Registration: D 13684, R 10181, N 13959, total 37860, D+ 3503
Incumbent: Gene Fraise, D-Ft. Madison UPDATE Sept. 23 - Fraise retiring.

UPDATE August 1: Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse (R) announces.

The question here is less about the turf and more about whether Fraise wants to seek another term next year, when he turns 80. He has beaten Republican Doug Abolt twice in a row. It was relatively close at 53% in 2004; Fraise improved that to 57 in the 2008 rematch.

Fraise keeps all of his district from last decade, which had nice clean lines: Henry and Lee counties, no more no less. To bump the population up, the leftovers of Washington and Jefferson counties are added: Crawfordsville, Brighton, Lockridge and Coppock. The messing at the margins shaves about 500 Democrats off his party registration edge.

The lines were very different when Fraise took over from Lowell Junkins in a 1986 special election, when Junkins stepped down to run for governor. In the 1990s. Fraise went northeast from his Ft. Madison base to pick up Burlington and most of Des Moines County. That led to a 1992 pair-up with Republican Mark Hagerla, which Fraise won handily. Next door Henry County and the Keokuk part of Lee, along with most of Washington, were Tom Vilsack's.

House District 83

Registration: D 8795, R 3409, N 6501, total 18729, D+ 5386
Incumbent: Jerry Kearns, D-Keokuk



The big change in the southeast corner of the state (Baja Iowa?) happened a decade ago. Fort Madison and Keokuk had historically anchored separate seats, but in 2001 they got put together. In a textbook example of a friends and neighbors primary, Keokuk's Phil Wise edged Fort Madison's Rick Larkin 51 to 49. (Rick landed on his feet, going to the Board of Supervisors.)

When Wise stepped down in 2008, we got a counter-example. Jerry Kearns was one of two Keokuk Democrats facing a lone Fort Madison candidate, Tracy Vance. But Kearns' labor ties proved more important than the geography, as he won with a clear majority and went on to win the general with 60%. He then beat a late-starting tea-oriented Republican handily in 2010.

Compared to the radical rewrite of 2001, the lines are almost identical. Most of the line is still at about the latitude that demarcates the rest of the Missouri border, wrapping south of Donellson to exclude it, to Fort Madison. At the northeast, Kearns adds two townships, with no significant partisan impact.


House District 84

Registration: D 4889, R 6772, N 7458, total 19131, R+ 1883
Incumbent: Dave Heaton, R-Mt. Pleasant

Unless your name is Vilsack, Henry County is GOP territory. Democrats have made a couple feints at serious runs since Dave Heaton went to the House in 1994, but haven't come close. Ron Fedler was supposed to be a sleeper in 2008 but lost by a couple thousand votes; Heaton more than doubled him in the 2010 rematch.

The original Heaton seat back in the 90s paired the cities of Washington and Mt. Pleasant. It shifted to its current configuration, with Henry intact and northern rural Lee added, in 2001. Heaton keeps most of the same part of northern Lee County, and expands north and west into Washington and Jefferson. The seemingly small changes boost Heaton's partisan edge by about 800 registered Republicans. Only real question is how long Heaton, now 70, wants to stick around.

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District of the Day: Senate District 41, House Districts 81 and 82

District of the Day: Senate District 41, House Districts 81 and 82

Senate District 41

Registration: D 15367, R 11345, N 12211, total 38972, D+ 4022
Incumbent: Mark Chelgren, R-Ottumwa

Enjoy the ride, Chickenman; you won't be back in 2014.

Mark Chelgren, whose claim to fame was his party hardy RAGBRAI persona, was the fluke of the year, emerging from a recount with a ten vote win over Bloomfield Democrat Keith Kreiman. He rolled up the margin in three whole rural counties: Appanoose, Davis, and Wayne. Chelgren has cut an abrasive profile in his first session, but with Democrats in Senate control he's been noticed less that the House Crazy Caucus of Pearson, Massie and Shaw.

The most Democratic seat held by a Republican keeps a big Democratic edge. The district keeps Ottumwa and a slightly different portion of Wapello County; under the old lines within Wapello, Krieman was ahead by nearly 1000 votes. Davis County also stays in the district. But from there the district goes east, grabbing all of Van Buren and adding most of the population of blue-trending Jefferson County. The district line wraps around the east of Fairfield, bringing it into the district. Fairfield was home base for Democratic Senator Becky Schmitz, who won in a district that also included Van Buren in 2006. Schmitz, who lost to Sandy Greiner in 2010, is reportedly interested in a comeback, but it's not clear where she can try that in 2012. If she can wait a cycle, this looks like excellent turf.

House District 81

Registration: D 8765, R 4417, N 5452, total 18646, D+ 4348
Incumbent: Mary Gaskill, D-Ottumwa

The District Draws Itself: At 25,023, the city of Ottumwa is 82% of the size of a House district. Minor changes around the edges, of course. Instead of getting the townships south and west of the city, the district goes east to the county line, picking up Agency, Eldon, and the American Gothic house.

This seat was turbulent a decade ago; Republican Galen Davis took advantage of a local Democratic in-fight for a fluke 1998 win. He got knocked off by Democrat Mark Tremmel, who left after one term to run for county attorney.

In 2002 Gaskill, the former county auditor, won a close primary and settled in. She overwhelmingly won a bizarre primary last year over a former county supervisor (short version: the guy resigned, moved out of state, moved back soon after with no explanation). Republicans looked like there were making a serious effort last year with Jane Holody; even Mike Huckabee took an interest. But Gaskill earned a 57% win.


House District 82

Registration: D 6602, R 6928, N 6759, total 20326, R+ 326
Incumbent Curt Hanson, D-Fairfield (Kurt Swaim, D-Bloomfield, retiring)

A Democratic redistricting pair was resolved when Kurt Swaim of Bloomfield announced his retirement:

This decision is not of recent origin. I told some close friends and family members eighteen months ago that, if re-elected, the current term would, in all probability, be my last one.

I have been asked if the new redistricting had any effect on my decision. It really did not. My decision was largely decided before the maps were released. However, it is a far easier decision to make knowing that Curt Hanson, a colleague from Fairfield that I greatly respect and admire, has committed to run in the new district.

The Davis County based Swaim was first elected in 2002 in old House 94, which was Davis, Appanoose and Wayne counties. In redistricting, he was paired with Curt Hanson of Fairfield in new 82.

Swaim would have faced either a poor fit move to adjacent House 80 or a primary on Hanson's turf. The new district has all of Van Buren and most of Jefferson County, including Fairfield, from Hanson's old seat, and only Davis from Swaim's. The new district leans slightly Republican, with a GOP registration edge of 326. That's almost the same as Hanson's current district.

The Fairfield-based House seat flipped Democratic in 1996, first with Rebecca Reynolds then with John Whitaker in 2002.

When Whitaker resigned to take a federal Department of Agriculture job in the summer of 2009, Fairfield became the center of statewide attention. Anti-marriage equality groups pumped huge amounts of out of state money into Fairfield, and Democrats responded with an all-out effort as well. Hanson prevailed by just 127 votes over Republican Steve Burgmeier. Two independent conservative candidates, representing the Judean People's Front and the People's Front of Judea, were in the race, and they drew more votes than the difference.



The rematch in the fall of 2010 was just the two of them. Despite the lack of Splitters!, the annus horriblis for Democrats and the fact that he was now just one of 100 races instead of the only game in town, the popular retired driver's ed teacher increased his margin over Burgmeier to more than 1000 votes.

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District of the Day: Senate District 40, House Districts 79 and 80

District of the Day: Senate District 40, House Districts 79 and 80

Senate District 40

Registration: D 10950, R 15759, N 13244, total 39971, R+ 4809
Incumbent: Tom Rielly, D-Oskaloosa

Reilly gained this seat - if you can even call it "this" seat - by 900 votes from Amana-based Republican Neal Schuerer, and won a solid re-elect in the Democratic wave of 2008.

Rielly inherits very, very different lines. His home base of Osky, where he was mayor, and the eastern half of Mahaska is all he keeps. The old seat went north and east: Keokuk and Poweshiek counties, most of Iowa (except Marengo) and a sliver of Tama. Now he goes south and west, picking up the rest of Mahaska, all of Monroe and Appanoose, and the corner of Marion that includes Pella, He also gets rural Wapello County north and west of Ottumwa. So close to all those Democrats in Ottumwa, but his lines stop at the city limits.

Which is too bad for Rielly, because he goes from having a registration deficit of just under 1000 -- tough, but swing territory -- to a deep-red GOP advantage of nearly 5,000. And he's on the even-number cycle so he has to run next year. Rielly is likely to be number two on the GOP target list, right behind Mike Gronstal.

House District 79

Registration: D 4357, R 9263, N 6667, total 20297, R+ 4906
Incumbents: Guy Vander Linden, R-Oskaloosa and Jim Van Engelenhoeven, R-Pella
UPDATE July 7: Vander Linden is running, Van Engelenhoeven retiring.

This is the Republican version of the Democratic pair-up in Lee County ten years ago. Two similar sized cities that had always been the anchors of different legislative districts get thrown together. In this corner: Oskaloosa, population 11,463. In that corner, weighing in at 10,352, the world heavyweight champion of tulips and windows, Pella. The two were in districts that didn't even border each other last decade (there was a demilitarized zone of Rich Arnold's district in between).

Vander Linden is the new Guy here. The retired Marine general, whose military duties included piloting the presidential helicopter in the Reagan/HWBush era, beat two-term Democrat Eric Palmer last year in a tall skinny district that paired Oskaloosa to the north with Grinnell and Montezuma. The district line used to wrap around the west end of Osky.

Now it wraps around the east side, hence the problem. Vander Linden's new district mate is Jim Van Engelenhoeven. Van Engelenhoeven went to the House in 1998 when former speaker Harold Van Maanen retired (lots of Vans and Vanders in this neighborood). He got paired up wth Rich Arnold in 2001 but moved a few miles west from Leighton to Pella. In addition to Pella, the district he moved into went west and north. He had most of Marion County, including Knoxville, plus Monroe in Jasper County. Van Engelenhoeven has had oddly redundant races the last two cycles: a primary challenge fro Pella adoption activist Marc Held followed by a fall race against Democrat Pat Van Zante. Both times he won the primary about 3 to 1 and the general about 2 to 1.

The new shared district has only Pella and surrounding Lake Prairie township in Marion County. In Mahaska the line includes Osky and the enclave of University Park, plus the geographic west half of the county: New Sharon, Beacon, Leighton.

The general election is not in doubt with a deep red Republican edge. Whoever stays gets a better district; Vander Linden's turf was dead even while Van Engelenhoeven's old seat was good but not this good. If it does come down to a primary, things like this usually get settled by friends and neighbors: which city can outvote the other? That's what happened in 2002 when Keokuk's Phil Wise narrowly beat Ft. Madison's Rick Larkin.

There is always the option of the Senate race, against a very vulnerable Tom Rielly. Vander Linden is a bit younger and the rising star, and thus the more likely bet. Or maybe they face off in a Senate primary instead of a House race?

There's also a vacant seat next door, but it's a less appealing option...

House District 80

Registration: D 6593, R 6496, N 6577, total 19674, D+ 97
No Incumbent

First off, it's a swing seat, as opposed to the solid Republican House 79 and Senate 40 districts. And Democrats already have an A-list candidate from the first family of Monroe County politics.

Joe Judge, a 33 year old teacher and former county party chair, is the son of former Lt. Gov. Patty Judge and former Sen. John Judge (who succeeded Patty in the Senate when she became Secretary of Agriculture). Given the open seat, the dead-even balance, the prominence of the candidate and the sure to be hot GOTV effort to try to save Senator Rielly, this seat has to be neat the top for Democrats hoping to take back the House.

The House district includes all of Appanoose and Monroe Counties, western Wapello and eastern Mahaska; it comes up to the city limits of Ottumwa and Oskalooosa but includes neither. It lies next to three districts that had paired-up representatives as of Map Day: Republicans Jarad Klein and Betty De Boef in 78, and Van Engelenhoeven and Vander Linden. So if someone moves in, Judge may find himself faced with an incumbent, but none of the possible moves seem like quite the right fit. (The third pair has been resolved: Bloomfield Democrat Kurt Swaim is not running in 82 and Curt Hanson, D-Fairfield, is.) In the old map, Appanoose was in Swaim's district, while Monroe went west into the turf of retiring Republican Rich Arnold.


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District of the Day: Senate District 39, House Districts 77 and 78

District of the Day: Senate District 39, House Districts 77 and 78

Senate District 39

Registration: D 12899, R 11970, N 14104, total 39008, D + 929
Incumbent: Sandy Greiner, R-Keota

Greiner was the only Senator to vote against The Map. She said it was about the lines around Hills, which are a bit goofy but that's because of the city limits. (There's a long story behind that.) But methinks it was really about getting handed a district that's half in Johnson County.

Greiner has served two separate tenures in each side of the Capitol. First elected to the House in 1992, she moved to the Senate in 2000. But she got the short straw in a redistricting triple-up and went back, begrudgingly, to the House in `02. In 2008 she stepped down, hoping to serve on the Republican National Committee, but lost that race at the state convention. Scarcely missing a beat, she got heavily involved in 2010: an early backer of the "draft" Branstad campaign, a big mover and shaker in "independent" expenditure group the American Future Fund, and as a candidate. Greiner knocked off first-term Democrat Becky Schmitz in a district that included the southwest corner of Johnson, but went south to the Missouri border: Washington, Jefferson, Van Buren, and eastern Wapello.

Now the district shifts north. She keeps almost all of Washington, and in a bit of good news gets back her original base in Keokuk County. But the expanded turf in Johnson County more than negates that. Her 2002-2008 House seat had a GOP registration edge of more than 1700, and the 2010 Senate district increased that to more than 2100.  Even her bit of Johnson County was all rural and included the county's most Republican townships.

Now Democrats have the advantage, and her new Johnson County turf has a distinctly just-built suburban flavor. Maybe the best news for Greiner is she has an odd district number and gets three years to try to win over those new Johnson County constituents. Or at least to vote in the Senate.

House District 77

Registration: D 7401, R 4856, N 7276, total 19552, D+ 2545
No incumbent

An open, strong Democratic district in Johnson County is a rarity rivaling a transit of Venus. As it turns out, we have both next year, and the twice in 112 years transit even occurs on primary election day.

And like a transit of Venus, an open Johnson County seat is more notable for its rarity than for its drama. Democrats have a top tier candidate in Sally Stutsman, who's won five county-wide elections for supervisor. Her lone career loss was for the House in 2000, but that was in a solid GOP seat based in Louisa and Muscatine, and she did far better than the Some Dude who lost four years earlier.

North Liberty anchors the new seat which covers the whole west and south border of Johnson. It starts with Swisher and Shueyville, picks up Tiffin and Oxford, and ends up in Lone Tree, wrapping around and not including the city of Hills. That's Stutsman's historic base, but the family farm is outside the city proper.

Stutsman was re-elected in 2010 and would leave the board mid-term if elected. So the big excitement may not be the House race itself but its ripple effect through local courthouse politics.

House District 78

Registration: D 5498, R 7114, N 6828, total 19456, R + 1616
Incumbents: Jarad Klein, R-Keota and Betty DeBoef, R-What Cheer

Washington County has seen three House winners in three elections, and now anchors a district with two representatives.

When Greiner left the House seat in 2008, her chosen successor was young Republican Jarad Klein. But the 2008 wave crested high enough to elect Democrat Larry Marek by 157 votes. Marek had a good biographical fit for the district, but was a little less of a fit for the House Democrats, and he aligned with the Six Pack of conservaDems. He was largely left to fend for himself at re-election time, even as the party was going all out for his senator, Becky Schmitz, on the same turf. The rematch coincided with the 2010 counter-wave and Klein won handily.

The new lines help Klein in one sense: the seat sheds all of the People's Republic of Johnson County where Marek earned his 2008 winning margin. Granted, south and west rural Johnson ain't downtown Iowa City, but Hills is so Democratic even I won it. Klein also drops eastern Jefferson County and a little bit of Washington (Crawfordsville and Brighton). In exchange he gets all of strong Republican Keokuk County... and with it a fellow Republican House member, Betty DeBoef.

Klein has multiple advantages in this pair. There's geography: about two thirds of this was his in the old map and he has strong ties to Keokuk County as well. He's also younger and has stronger party ties, especially to Greiner.

DeBoef, meanwhile, is on the leadership outs, and is one of the few senior members who doesn't chair a committee. Of late she's been aligning with the Crazy Caucus of Pearson, Massie, Alons and Shaw. She carpetbagged into Keokuk County in the first place; her original base when she won her first term in 2000 was in Rose Hill, across the line in Mahaska. In 2001 she got paired up with Danny Carroll in a Mahaska-Poweshiek seat, and when she moved to Keokuk County she had to fend off a couple primary opponents.

Assuming Klein runs here, he's got about the same partisan balance he had before; DeBoef's old seat was a bit closer but Democrats never made much effort against her. A self-starting Some College Dude college student won 34% in 2010.

Since I keep flinging that term around, some explanation. Its origins are at the blog Swing State Project, which was annexced recently and became Daily Kos Elections.

Some candidates start out with certain built-in advantages: They already hold office, they have personal wealth, or they have a prominent public profile. Some Dude has none of these. If you Google Some Dude's name, you'll find very little information-probably just the news article or blog post where they were first mentioned as a possible candidate. A good hint you're dealing with a Some Dude is that they're described as an "activist" or "Tea Party member" in press accounts. Note: Some Dudes sometimes win!

The one thing we know for sure: DeBoef says she won't oppose Klein in a primary. There's an open district just to the west, House 80, that includes her original home in Rose Hill. But it's swingy and Democrats already have a strong candidate (more tomorrow). There's also other nearby Republicans in pairs. Frankly, retirement may be her best option.


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District of the Day: Senate District 38, House Districts 75 and 76

District of the Day: Senate District 38, House Districts 75 and 76

Senate District 38

Registration: D 12356, R 12322, N 16759, total 41472, D+ 34
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone

Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.

Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.

House District 75

Registration: D 5671, R 5854, N 8611, total 20149, R+ 183
Incumbent: Dawn Pettingill, R-Mt. Auburn

Pettingill took this seat, with a lot of party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, flaking off on many key issues. In a move that was played for maximum drama, Pettengill defected to the GOP on the last day of the 2007 session. (Then-speaker Chris Rants had telegraphed a "big announcement," and for a few hours the rumor mill thought it was his own resignation.)

So Democrats wanted this one bad in 2008, but Pettingill won with 55%, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. Then Democrats lost the 2010 race at the candidate recruitment stage, failing to find a challenger.

Other than her party, almost nothing has changed for Pettingill, who keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House district and the county stays whole. The minimal changes mean this stays a swing seat.

House District 76

Registration: D 6685, R 6468, N 8148, total 21323, D + 217
No Incumbent

While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts and ending up with no incumbent.

The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for
multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.

Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. We'll look at that on Friday. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.

The Palmer-Carroll battles had counter-intuitive results: Democrat Palmer lived in red Oskaloosa, but won his margins of victory in Grinnell. Carroll lived in Grinnell but performed better in Mahaska. The question for Democrats: can they introduce Palmer to a friendly realtor in Grinnell? As for DeBoef, check back tomorrow.


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District of the Day: Senate District 37, House Districts 73 and 74

District of the Day: Senate District 37, House Districts 73 and 74

Senate District 37

Registration: D 14731, R 9499, N 13327, total 37,613, D + 5232
Incumbent: Bob Dvorsky, D-Coralville

One of the biggest surprises of the whole map for me was that Bob Dvorsky did not get pulled all the way into Johnson County. The People's Republic was the second fastest growing part of the state in the last decade, behind only Dallas County. We are now big enough for a second whole Senate district. Most of that growth has been in Dvorsky's old district, in places like Tiffin, North Liberty, Solon, and the I-380 corridor.

We did get our fourth whole House seat (check back Thursday for that) but instead of getting that paired with his Coralville base, Dvorsky was sent east for the first time, picking up all of Cedar County and the city of Wilton in Muscatine County, all of which had been in Muscatine Republican Jim Hahn's territory. Bob's original House district, which he won in 1986, went west to Iowa County. When he went to the Senate in a hurry-up February 1994 mid-session special (infamous for an election day blizzard) he got a half-Johnson, half Linn district. The Linn part shrank in 2001, moving out of Cedar Rapids and becoming about a 75% Johnson seat, but the basic configuration remained.

Within Johnson, Dvorsky sheds ground to the west this decade: Tiffin, North Liberty, Oxford, Swisher, Shueyville. He keeps Coralville, Solon, and Penn Township (the rural subdivisions north of Iowa City) and the northeast corner of the county. He also adds one precinct on the west side of Iowa City (for my locals: Iowa City 9).

Though this remains maybe a 60% Johnson County district, the addition of swingy Cedar County and heavily Republican Wilton costs Dvorsky nearly 2,500 registered Democrats. But with a still solid margin he can afford it. Republicans last bothered opposing Dvorsky in 2002; he beat a Libertarian in 2010 and holds over till 2014.

House District 73

Registration: D 6518, R 5718, N 7589, total 19841, D+ 800
Incumbent: Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton

Kaufmannn took over for Dan Boddicker in 2004 and has risen quickly in House GOP leadership. The old seat was almost dead-even with a Democratic registration edge of 29 as of this April. But he's been lucky with opponents. A well-funded 2006 race netted just 37%; a 2008 self-starter quit the race but neglected to take her name off the ballot, and a late-starting Dem polled just 27% in 2010 (worse than Name On The Ballot did in 2008).

But Kaufmann has more to worry about next year than the collapse of the Newt Gingrich campaign. While he keeps all of Cedar County and the GOP stronghold of Wilton, he loses the northern tier of Muscatine County: West Liberty, Atalissa and Moscow. Instead he inherits a much larger portion of the People's Republic. Last decade he had two townships, trailer court dominated Scott and negligibly small Lincoln. He keeps Scott and adds four townships to the north (Newport, Big Grove, Graham and Cedar) plus the city of Solon.

Kaufmann was one of the handful of no votes on The Map. He said it was because Cedar County was put in an urban-based Senate district. But it's worth noting that the partisan balance shifts in his own seat, which now has a Democratic registration edge of 800. West Branch city council member David Johnson has announced on the Democratic side, and other names are in the rumor mill.

House District 74

Registration: D 8213, R 3781, N 5738, total 17772, D+ 4432
Incumbent: Dave Jacoby, D-Coralville

Big growth means big changes in Dave Jacoby's lines, but District Draws Itself math means Coralville stays in one piece and dominates whatever House district it's in. Jacoby went from the city council to the House in the summer of 2003 when then minority leader Dick Myers retired. That special election, which Jacoby won with 71%, was the last time Republicans ran a candidate. In fact, Jacoby's 2010 opponent actually left the GOP to run as a Libertarian, a sign of just how weak the GOP brand is in Johnson County. He didn't do much worse at 20%.

Earlier in the year, Jacoby had handled a bizarre labor-backed primary challenge (the opponent dropped out after the withdrawal deadline, then at the last minute hinted at dropping back in), winning 88% to 12%.

North Liberty grew so much that it has to be split from Coralville for the first time. Jacoby also gives up Tiffin and picks up one precinct on the west side of Iowa City. (That happened to be Mary Mascher's precinct; she quickly announced her move back into her district, now numbered 86.) Jacoby's new district has 1000 fewer Democrats than the old, but that's more a function of shedding the excess population rather than changes in the strong Democratic edge.


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District of the Day: Senate District 36, House Districts 71 and 72

District of the Day: Senate District 36, House Districts 71 and 72

Senate District 36

Registration: D 12112, R 12376, N 14570, total 39075, R+ 264
Incumbent: Steve Sodders, D-State Center

Sodders keeps all of his home base, Marshall County, which makes up two-thirds of this seat. The old district had all of Hardin County and the tiny piece of Ackley in Franklin County. The district moves east to take in all of Tama County and a small piece of southern Black Hawk.

Sodders took a Republican-leaning seat from the GOP in 2008 when Larry McKibben retired, winning by more than 3,000 votes. 2008 was a Democratic wave, of course, and Sodders was fortunate not to be on the ballot in 2010. The new lines will help him in 2012, as he sheds 1500 Republicans and this becomes a true swing seat.

House District 71

Registration: D 5988, R 5687, N 6553, total 18234, D+ 301
Incumbent: Mark Smith, D-Marshalltown

The District Draws Itself: With a census population of 27,552, Marshalltown is 90.4% of ideal district size. Even the rural part stays almost the same, adding one township and keeping the communities of Albion and Liscomb.

Democrat Mark Smith is the beneficiary of this geopolitical and numeric serendipity, and of course the partisan balance barely changes. This remains a swing seat, as it's been for years (one upside of The District Draws Itself is comparisons across decades are possible). There was a 58 vote race here in 1992, and Smith won the seat in 2000 by knocking off three term Republican Beverly Nelson-Forbes by just 275. He settled in to the point where he was unopposed in 2004 and 2006, and beat Republican Jane Jech by more than 1700 in 2008. But in a rematch with Jech against the 2010 GOP wave, Smith survived by just a 303 vote margin.

House District 72

Registration: D 6124, R 6689, N 8017, total 20841, R+ 565
Open seat; incumbent: Lance Horbach, R-Tama, not seeking re-election

Tama County has been the core of a district for a few maps, but always seems to get partnered toward a different compass point. Horbach won his first term by nine (!) votes over Democrat Bill Brand in 1998. (If I remember right, election night had Horbach ahead by two.) That district ran east into Benton County. Four years later, Horbach's turf shifted northwest as the district gained all of Grundy (and lost the southeast corner of Tama County around Chelsea). This decade Tama County is whole again, but gets sent west to pick up all of Marshall County south and west of Marshalltown. (This probably means a Tama-Poweshiek district in 2021 since every other direction has been done.) It also adds what looks like the leftovers of Black Hawk County: two rural townships and La Porte City. "The long skinny shape of Big Creek Township gives this district a little panhandle, which I like," said redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering.

What this district won't have is Horbach, who announced before The Map was even released that he's not running in 2012. Whoever does run will get a district that's significantly less Republican. The old Tama-Grundy seat had a GOP registration edge of almost 2500, and Horbach had gradually settled into the comfort of uncontested races. This new district has a Republican registration margin of just 565.


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District of the Day: Senate District 35, House Districts 69 and 70

District of the Day: Senate District 35, House Districts 69 and 70

Senate District 35

Registration: D 15818, R 8533, N 14271, total 38672, D+ 7285
Incumbent: Wally Horn, D-Cedar Rapids

Horn is Iowa's senior legislator (Jack Kibbie served earlier, but was out for two decades and has served less total time.) The Cedar Rapids Democrat was first elected to the House in 1972 and after a decade there moved over to the Senate in 1982. Wally hasn't even seen an opponent since 1990, and the last excitement of any sort was in 1991 when he and fellow Democrat Rich Running were paired (Running made a Senate to House switch). Horn will hold over till 2014, when he'll be 80.

Horn's turf has always, generally speaking, been on the south and west of Cedar Rapids. (The actual quadrants, marked by the river and 1st Avenue, would be NW and SW) This decade it gets geographically bigger, moving out into the county. The Democratic registration margin drops by almost 1000 but stays in the Safe D range.

Within the Senate district, western Cedar Rapids is still split into a northern and a southern House seat.

House District 69

Registration: D 7500, R 3623, N 7014, total 18167, D + 3877
Incumbent: Kirsten Running-Marquardt, D-Cedar Rapids

The last two transitions in this seat have been in special elections. Dick Taylor won in early 2000 when Kay Halloran stepped down (this was well before she was Cedar Rapids Mayor). He moved in 2001 when he was part of a triple-up in redistricting, then resigned in late 2009.

The Democratic convention in 2009 was more competitive than the special election. The winner, Kirsten Running-Marquardt, spent a decade in the trenches of campaign and labor staffing before following her father's footsteps to the legislature. She had a rematch with her special election opponent in the 2010 general, winning with over 63%.

Kirsten's old seat was virtually all in Cedar Rapids (except one trailer court on an unincorporated fragment). The new district expands outward south and west to the Johnson and Benton County lines, taking in the city of Fairfax, Fairfax and College Townships, and the Linn County piece of Walford.

The lines move west through midtown. Kirsten loses Precinct 5, which is the core of downtown and the Coe campus. She also loses precincts 3 and 4 in the Czech Village area. Tyler Olson picks up all these. KR-M keeps precinct 6, which includes Mays Island and all the downtown bridges. The changes cut about 900 voters off of Running-Marquardt's Democratic registration edge, but this remains solid Democratic turf.

House District 70

Registration: D 8318, R 4910, N 7257, total 20505, D+ 3408
Incumbent: Todd Taylor, D-Cedar Rapids

We used to get our Taylors mixed up on the west side of Cedar Rapids, when Dick and Todd had adjacent districts. Todd was the only Taylor for the 2010 session, then was joined by Republican Jeremy of Sioux City this year. (The Olson Caucus remains the legislature's largest with Democrats Rick and Tyler and Republican Steve; rumor is they refuse to let Jo Oldson join.

Taylor picked this seat in a 1995 special when Rich Running stepped down. Mostly smooth sailing since; some unopposed races, never a really serious GOP effort. Taylor's 58% in 2010 was on the low end.

Taylor keeps the flood-ravaged Time Check area; the line between his district and Running-Marquardt's moves south and gets smoother, mostly following 16th Avenue SW, as Taylor picks up precinct 11. Outside the city limits, he adds Clinton Township. There's almost no change in the district's solid Democratic edge.


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District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

Senate District 34

Registration: D 12637, R 13206, N 15441, total 41336, R+ 569
Incumbent: Swati Dandekar, D-Marion

Dandekar has won national attention as the first woman of South Asian descent in American elected office (take that, Nikki Haley). Her heritage was the subject of whisper campaigns in her first House race in 2002, but once emailed smoking guns surfaced, Republicans had little choice but to scuttle their own candidate. Dandekar, who seemed to be ahead before the nastiness went above ground, became the first Democrat to win the Marion House seat in decades. She's had close races but held on, moving up to the Senate when Republican Mary Lundby stepped down in poor health in 2008. (Lundby had intended to run for the Board of Supervisors in a new district system that kicked in that year, but left that race and passed away just days after her Senate term officially expired.)

Dandekar is up in 2012. Any Democrat in a swingy seat with two GOP House members has to worry a bit, but Dandekar has cut a moderate profile and drawn some bipartisan support, much as Lundby did.

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. In fact, since it grew to 34,768, more than the ideal House district size, Marion is split between House districts for the first time ever.

More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

House District 67

Registration: D 5803, R 6916, N 7570, total 20312, R+ 1113
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

And the speaker gets to represent all four of those cities. Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. (Most of that goes into open House 95, where Democratic incumbent  Nate Willems is running for Senate instead.) Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010. This new seat gives him an 1100 edge in Republican registration, which combined with his stature as speaker should leave him time to help other folks.

UPDATE July 22: Democrat Mark Seidl, last seen challenging Renee Schulte in 2010, is redrawn into this district and will challenge Paulsen.

House District 68

Registration: D 6834, R 6290, N 7871, total 21024, D +544
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south to the Johnson County line, picking up Bertram, Ely and their surrounding townships. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

Wagner lost to Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin of 685. He came back to win a top tier open seat race over Gretchen Lawyer in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. But to use a sports analogy it was kind of a sacrifice fly; the Dems gave up Dandekar's House seat to take the Senate seat. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010 as Wagner walked over in an uncontested election.


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District of the Day: Senate District 33, House Districts 65 and 66

District of the Day: Senate District 33, House Districts 65 and 66

Several names repeat themselves in different races on the east side of Cedar Rapids.

Senate District 33

Registration: D 16493, R 11122, N 13692, total 41373, D+ 5371
Incumbent: Rob Hogg, D-Cedar Rapids

Hogg picked up a newly configured House seat in 2002, overcoming a serious GOP effort by former city official Don Palmer by about 600 votes. Hogg moved over to the Senate in 2006, defeating one Schulte, Renee, 59%-41% for a Democratic gain in what had been Chuck Larson's seat. He was re-elected unopposed in 2010 and holds over till 2014.

The old Senate seat had a good Democratic edge (3751 in April 2011) but as seen in 2002 was winnable for Republican Larson. The new lines improve things significantly for Hogg. He loses the Bowman Woods area in northeast Cedar Rapids and the core of downtown, and adds the Czech Village area.

House District 65

Registration: D 8953, R 4788, N 6354, total 20131, D+ 4165
Incumbent: Tyler Olson, D-Cedar Rapids

When Hogg went to the Senate in 2006, Don Palmer tried again, but Olson won easily with 65%. A 2008 Republican opponent quit, and Olson beat an independent in 2010.

The district remains centered in southeast Cedar Rapids. On the north, Olson gives two precincts, 37 and 39, to Schulte. He gains the core of downtown and, jumping the river, Czech Village, both from Kirsten Running-Marquardt. The shifts make his solid Democratic district about 800 Democrats more solid. The convoluted city limits mean this district keeps a long skinny tail along the Cedar River almost to Bertram that redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering likes.

House District 66

Registration: D 7540, R 6334, N 7338, total 21242, D + 1206
Incumbent: Renee Schulte, R-Cedar Rapids

Two years after her Senate loss to Hogg, Schulte came back for a landslide 13 vote House win over one-term Dem Art Staed. Democrats put her on top of the target list for 2010, but wound up playing defense instead of offense, and highly touted attorney Mark Seidl lost by an underwhelming 1100 votes.

Schulte's lines on the north remain the north city limits of Cedar Rapids, though that line itself has moved north and gives the district a strange pair of horns wrapping around Hiawatha. But on the south, where the old line was approximately 29th Street, she picks up two precincts and 900 extra Democrats.

The old district was closely divided, with a Democratic edge of 369, and Staed had won in 2006 by just 365. But as Schulte picks up two precincts to the south, she picks up 900 more Democrats. She was unhappy enough that she was one of the handful of no votes on The Map. Look for Schulte to again be high on the Democratic target list.


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District of the Day: Senate District 32, House Districts 63 and 64

District of the Day: Senate District 32, House Districts 63 and 64

Senate District 32

Registration: D 11414, R 11045, N 17121, total 39602, D+ 369
Incumbent: Brian Schoenjahn, D-Arlington

Schoenjahn was first elected in 2004 with 53% in an open seat race when two term Republican Kitty Rehberg stepped down. He scored an easy 2008 re-elect with 63%.

About two thirds of the old district was two whole counties that met only at a corner: Clayton and Buchanan. The remaining third of the population was made up of what looked like leftover pieces: Black Hawk east of Waterloo, Delaware north of Manchester, and southern and eastern Fayette outside of Oelwein and West Union. That included Schoenjahn's Arlington home.

The new district shifts west, entirely out of Clayton and Delaware. Schoenjahn instead picks up all of Bremer County. Most of Buchanan remains, except four townships and the city of Rowley. Hekeeps parts of Fayette and Black Hawk but the lines change significantly. The Fayette County lines move south and west to add Oelwein, removing Waudena, Fayette and Elgin. In Black Hawk, the district loses the southeast corner around La Porte City. The new line follows the Cedar Falls, Waterloo and Raymond city limits, with everything north and east going to Schoenjahn.

Schoenjahn's old district 12 had a more comfortable Democratic registration edge of 1,269 and the changes drop that margin to 369. Some of the new turf on the west belonged to Bill Dix, who's now paired up in Senate 25 with Rob Bacon. The Dix family farm is reportedly in this seat; does Dix move in and let Bacon hold over in Senate 25? (This would also put Dix back in the 1st CD if the congressional bug bites again.)

House District 63

Registration: D 5225, R 6395, N 9128, total 20761, R+ 1170
No Incumbent

Last decade, Bremer County was split between two House districts, Republican Pat Grassley's Butler-based 17th and Democrat Andrew Wenthe's Oelwein-centered 18th. But it was united in Senate District 9, which changed hands twice. Republican Bob Brunkhorst moved over from the House in 2002 (barely winning the primary) In 2006, Democrat Bill Heckroth won a hard-fought open seat race with
53%.

Heckroth was targeted in a big, big way by the Republicans in 2010. Bill Dix, who had left the House 17 seat in 2006 to run unsuccessfully in the 1st District congressional primary, was on the comeback trail and was the top fundraiser in the state (outside of legislative leadership). That and the wave were too much for Heckroth, who lost 58-42.

But now it's Heckroth on the comeback trail. He's announced very early for a seat where an undivided Bremer County makes up 80% of the population. Almost all the north Black Hawk section was in the old seat, too. The only brand-new turf is the city of Dunkerton (the Senate lines wrapped around it) and a couple townships east of Waterloo. The district still has a GOP registration edge, but the numbers are better than the Senate seat (R + 3820) was.

One district west, Grandson Grassley lives close to the lines, and is paired up with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney. He had a lot of this turf, including Waverly, last decade. Grassley says he won't move, though that doesn't stop Tyler Mills at Des Moines Free Press from speculating about Grassley moving here.

House District 64

Registration: D 6189, R 4650, N 7993, total 18841, D +1539
Incumbent: Dan Rasmussen, R-Independence

First elected in 2002, Rasmussen saw close races. He held on for a 499 vote win against the 2006 wave, then sat out a term after a 759 vote loss to Democrat Gene Ficken in 2008. In the high-profile, high-dollar -- broadcast TV ads in both Waterloo and Cedar Rapids -- 2010 rematch, Rasmussen prevailed by just 208 votes.

With that margin in mind, it's significant that Democrats gain about 200 registered voters
under the new lines. This makes Rasmussen a must-target for Democrats in 2012. Just to the north, Democrat Andrew Wenthe is in a pair-up with a fellow Democrat, Roger Thomas, in a district with a Republican edge. One option is Wenthe moving here, which overlaps quite a bit with his old seat.

Rasmussen keeps almost all of Buchanan County except four small rural townships and Rowley in the southeast. The old turf included southeastern Black Hawk, including LaPorte City and Gilbertville. All of Black Hawk is now gone. The new district goes north into southern Fayette County, taking in Oelwein, Arlington, Maynard, Westgate and Randalia. It stops south of Fayette and Wadena.


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District of the Day: Senate District 31, House Districts 61 and 62

District of the Day: Senate District 31, House Districts 61 and 62

Senate District 31

Registration: D 16166, R 6529, N 13458, total 36176, D+ 9637
Incumbent: Bill Dotzler, D-Waterloo

An excellent Democratic district gets even better with minor line changes. Dotzler moved over to the Senate in 2002 after three terms in the House and has had easy races, winning with 63% in 2010. He keeps all of Waterloo northeast of the river and a similar chunk of the southeast, along with Elk Run Heights, Evansdale and Raymond. The changes are at the edges and are a bigger deal on the map than on the demographics. Dotzler gives up a couple rural fragments and picks up a couple different townships, Gilbertville and Washburn.

House District 61

Registration: D 7062, R 4058, N 6969, total 18,099, D+ 3004
Incumbent: Anesa Kajtazovic, D-Waterloo

Old House 21 had four winners in four cycles. Former TV anchor Tami Wiencek upset longtime legislator Don Shoultz in 2006 for one of the few Republican gains anywhere in the nation that year. Wiencek cut an earnest and moderate profile in her term, but when the chips were down she voted the party line which didn't help in this district. Democrats fought local celebrity with local celebrity, and recruited a seemingly top-tier candidate in former Hawkeye football star Kerry Burt to take the seat back in 2008.

But Burt self-destructed with personal and ethical issues in his first term. Privately Democrats hoped and begged for Burt to step down, but he went ahead and filed for re-election. Enter Anesa Kajtazovic and her feel-good biography: Bosnian refugee gets through college in three years. Burt didn't drop out until he was actually indicted in the school tuition case, after the deadline to take his name off the ballot. So technically Kajtazovic, the only Democrat with the nerve to step up and actually challenge him, beat Burt in the primary with 91% of the vote, which has to be some kind of record against an incumbent.

Republicans who had hoped for an easy gain against a scandalized incumbent were helpless against Kajtazovic, who beat former Waterloo mayor John Rooff with 59% to immediately earn two lines in the record books: first Bosnian-Iowan in the Legislature and at age 24 the youngest female legislator in state history. She's been winning headlines for hard work and enthusiasm, and Kajtazovic is a good bet to be the first incumbent re-elected out of this district since Shoultz in 2004.

Kajtazovic keeps roughly the same chunk of southeast Waterloo. The district grows to the south and east, gaining four rural townships, Gilbertville and Washburn. She sheds Eagle Township south of town. The changes help the district's Democratic margin by about 350 registered voters.

House District 62

Registration: D 9104, R 2471, N 6489, total 18,077, D+ 6633
Incumbent: Deborah Berry, D-Waterloo

Berry, who was then in her first city council term, finished first in the 2002 primary when this seat opened up. But she only won 33%, short of the 35% required. The district then saw two (!) special nominating conventions and some hard feelings, before Berry finally emerged as the nominee after the second convention. (To be direct: three African-American candidates, including Berry, split the primary vote. A poorly attended first convention nominated the lone non-black candidate, who was later persuaded to step down.)

Republicans saw an opening amidst the hard feelings and nominated former county supervisor Norm Granger (yet another ex-Hawkeye footballer). Waterloo has had some history with black Republicans, electing Granger and longtime supervisor Leon Mosley. But the partisan lean of the district helped Berry to a two to one win, with smooth sailing since. A 2006 opponent dropped out, then Berry won an easy three to one 2008 primary win against a power plant opponent (Berry has been, shall we say, utility-friendly in her career). No opposition at all in 2010.

The new district keeps its core: all of Waterloo northeast of the Cedar River. Berry picks up about a precinct in town, loses Poyner township, and keeps Elk Run Heights, Evansdale and Raymond. This is the second most Democratic district in the state, ranking between the two Iowa City seats.


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