Rozenboom May Challenge Rielly

Rozenboom May Challenge Rielly in Senate 40

The Oskaloosa News reports: "Mahaska County Supervisor Ken Rozenboom is considering a run for the Iowa Senate" against Democrat Tom Rielly in Senate District 40.

The GOP supervisor was just elected to his first term last year but says "I’m new to holding political office, I’m not new to politics. I’ve followed politics very closely all my life, and I’m in a time in my life I can consider some of these options."

Rozenboom cited Senate control as a key issue.

“I think we need to make every effort to do our part to change that balance of power. I’m frustrated that Mike Gronstal and other Senate Democrats basically blocked a lot of legislation, they blocked debate. In our system of government, we should be able to at least debate the issue, and some of these were simply locked out of debate. I think we have an opportunity to change that here locally.”

Rielly is probably number two on the GOP's target list, behind only Gronstal, and based on the numbers has the toughest seat for Democrats to defend. He knocked off an incumbent in 2008 on tough turf but he goes from having a registration deficit of just under 1000 to a deep-red GOP advantage of nearly 5,000, and a lot of new territory. The district includes all of Mahaska, Monroe and Appanoose counties, and the corner of Marion that includes Pella. It also has rural Wapello County north and west of Ottumwa, but none of that Democratic city.

Rozenboom may not be the only Republican looking at this seat. The rumor mill has long said that Rep. Betty De Boef is also interested. De Boef is paired up in a Washington-Keokuk county seat with Rep. Jarad Klein and has said she won't run against Klein in a primary. De Boef would have to move into the Senate district, but she lived in Mahaska when first elected in 2000.

Legislative Updates from Tiffin

Who Cares About Presidential Politics? I Need District Of The Day Updates!

In addition to the four presidential candidates, several GOP legislators were on hand at the multi-county fundraiser in Tiffin. As Iowa's worst case of OCD - Obsessive Compulsive Districts - I discussed The Map with a few:

Rep. Jarad Klein of Keota says of his pair-up with Betty De Boef: "I think Betty's made it pretty clear she isn't interested in running for the House seat." That would leave Klein as the only incumbent in the House District 78 race.

As for De Boef, Klein says, "Whatever else she does is up to her." The Rumor Mill says De Boef may be interested in taking on Democratic Senator Tom Rielly in Senate District 40. That would require a move on her part, but it would be a move back toward her original turf (she moved east from Mahaska to Keokuk County after getting paired in `01.) And it would be a move into very GOP friendly turf. Rielly is number two on the GOP Senate target list, right below Mike Gronstal.

Muscatine's Jim Hahn says he will be running for re-election in 2012 in Senate District 46, but hasn't discussed plans with his new district mate, Shawn Hamerlinck, since shortly after the map came out. Hahn did note that Hamerlinck's home is close to the line. (Is a move in the making? Will Hamerlinck "go home" to a new home?)

Senator Tim Kapucian of Keystone isn't paired up in Senate District 38, but noted that two-thirds of his turf is new. He believes his strong agricultural background will serve him well with his new voters.

Also on hand was Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, newly minted candidate in Senate District 42. Kruse may be the last to know whether or not longtime Democratic incumbent Gene Fraise, who turns 80 next year, is running again. But he says he hasn't heard rumors of any other Democratic names.

District of the Day: Senate District 39, House Districts 77 and 78

District of the Day: Senate District 39, House Districts 77 and 78

Senate District 39

Registration: D 12899, R 11970, N 14104, total 39008, D + 929
Incumbent: Sandy Greiner, R-Keota

Greiner was the only Senator to vote against The Map. She said it was about the lines around Hills, which are a bit goofy but that's because of the city limits. (There's a long story behind that.) But methinks it was really about getting handed a district that's half in Johnson County.

Greiner has served two separate tenures in each side of the Capitol. First elected to the House in 1992, she moved to the Senate in 2000. But she got the short straw in a redistricting triple-up and went back, begrudgingly, to the House in `02. In 2008 she stepped down, hoping to serve on the Republican National Committee, but lost that race at the state convention. Scarcely missing a beat, she got heavily involved in 2010: an early backer of the "draft" Branstad campaign, a big mover and shaker in "independent" expenditure group the American Future Fund, and as a candidate. Greiner knocked off first-term Democrat Becky Schmitz in a district that included the southwest corner of Johnson, but went south to the Missouri border: Washington, Jefferson, Van Buren, and eastern Wapello.

Now the district shifts north. She keeps almost all of Washington, and in a bit of good news gets back her original base in Keokuk County. But the expanded turf in Johnson County more than negates that. Her 2002-2008 House seat had a GOP registration edge of more than 1700, and the 2010 Senate district increased that to more than 2100.  Even her bit of Johnson County was all rural and included the county's most Republican townships.

Now Democrats have the advantage, and her new Johnson County turf has a distinctly just-built suburban flavor. Maybe the best news for Greiner is she has an odd district number and gets three years to try to win over those new Johnson County constituents. Or at least to vote in the Senate.

House District 77

Registration: D 7401, R 4856, N 7276, total 19552, D+ 2545
No incumbent

An open, strong Democratic district in Johnson County is a rarity rivaling a transit of Venus. As it turns out, we have both next year, and the twice in 112 years transit even occurs on primary election day.

And like a transit of Venus, an open Johnson County seat is more notable for its rarity than for its drama. Democrats have a top tier candidate in Sally Stutsman, who's won five county-wide elections for supervisor. Her lone career loss was for the House in 2000, but that was in a solid GOP seat based in Louisa and Muscatine, and she did far better than the Some Dude who lost four years earlier.

North Liberty anchors the new seat which covers the whole west and south border of Johnson. It starts with Swisher and Shueyville, picks up Tiffin and Oxford, and ends up in Lone Tree, wrapping around and not including the city of Hills. That's Stutsman's historic base, but the family farm is outside the city proper.

Stutsman was re-elected in 2010 and would leave the board mid-term if elected. So the big excitement may not be the House race itself but its ripple effect through local courthouse politics.

House District 78

Registration: D 5498, R 7114, N 6828, total 19456, R + 1616
Incumbents: Jarad Klein, R-Keota and Betty DeBoef, R-What Cheer

Washington County has seen three House winners in three elections, and now anchors a district with two representatives.

When Greiner left the House seat in 2008, her chosen successor was young Republican Jarad Klein. But the 2008 wave crested high enough to elect Democrat Larry Marek by 157 votes. Marek had a good biographical fit for the district, but was a little less of a fit for the House Democrats, and he aligned with the Six Pack of conservaDems. He was largely left to fend for himself at re-election time, even as the party was going all out for his senator, Becky Schmitz, on the same turf. The rematch coincided with the 2010 counter-wave and Klein won handily.

The new lines help Klein in one sense: the seat sheds all of the People's Republic of Johnson County where Marek earned his 2008 winning margin. Granted, south and west rural Johnson ain't downtown Iowa City, but Hills is so Democratic even I won it. Klein also drops eastern Jefferson County and a little bit of Washington (Crawfordsville and Brighton). In exchange he gets all of strong Republican Keokuk County... and with it a fellow Republican House member, Betty DeBoef.

Klein has multiple advantages in this pair. There's geography: about two thirds of this was his in the old map and he has strong ties to Keokuk County as well. He's also younger and has stronger party ties, especially to Greiner.

DeBoef, meanwhile, is on the leadership outs, and is one of the few senior members who doesn't chair a committee. Of late she's been aligning with the Crazy Caucus of Pearson, Massie, Alons and Shaw. She carpetbagged into Keokuk County in the first place; her original base when she won her first term in 2000 was in Rose Hill, across the line in Mahaska. In 2001 she got paired up with Danny Carroll in a Mahaska-Poweshiek seat, and when she moved to Keokuk County she had to fend off a couple primary opponents.

Assuming Klein runs here, he's got about the same partisan balance he had before; DeBoef's old seat was a bit closer but Democrats never made much effort against her. A self-starting Some College Dude college student won 34% in 2010.

Since I keep flinging that term around, some explanation. Its origins are at the blog Swing State Project, which was annexced recently and became Daily Kos Elections.

Some candidates start out with certain built-in advantages: They already hold office, they have personal wealth, or they have a prominent public profile. Some Dude has none of these. If you Google Some Dude's name, you'll find very little information-probably just the news article or blog post where they were first mentioned as a possible candidate. A good hint you're dealing with a Some Dude is that they're described as an "activist" or "Tea Party member" in press accounts. Note: Some Dudes sometimes win!

The one thing we know for sure: DeBoef says she won't oppose Klein in a primary. There's an open district just to the west, House 80, that includes her original home in Rose Hill. But it's swingy and Democrats already have a strong candidate (more tomorrow). There's also other nearby Republicans in pairs. Frankly, retirement may be her best option.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

District of the Day: Senate District 38, House Districts 75 and 76

District of the Day: Senate District 38, House Districts 75 and 76

Senate District 38

Registration: D 12356, R 12322, N 16759, total 41472, D+ 34
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone

Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.

Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.

House District 75

Registration: D 5671, R 5854, N 8611, total 20149, R+ 183
Incumbent: Dawn Pettingill, R-Mt. Auburn

Pettingill took this seat, with a lot of party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, flaking off on many key issues. In a move that was played for maximum drama, Pettengill defected to the GOP on the last day of the 2007 session. (Then-speaker Chris Rants had telegraphed a "big announcement," and for a few hours the rumor mill thought it was his own resignation.)

So Democrats wanted this one bad in 2008, but Pettingill won with 55%, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. Then Democrats lost the 2010 race at the candidate recruitment stage, failing to find a challenger.

Other than her party, almost nothing has changed for Pettingill, who keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House district and the county stays whole. The minimal changes mean this stays a swing seat.

House District 76

Registration: D 6685, R 6468, N 8148, total 21323, D + 217
No Incumbent

While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts and ending up with no incumbent.

The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for
multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.

Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. We'll look at that on Friday. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.

The Palmer-Carroll battles had counter-intuitive results: Democrat Palmer lived in red Oskaloosa, but won his margins of victory in Grinnell. Carroll lived in Grinnell but performed better in Mahaska. The question for Democrats: can they introduce Palmer to a friendly realtor in Grinnell? As for DeBoef, check back tomorrow.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map