Another Day, More Districts

Another Day, More Districts

Amidst the school election, a couple candidate announcements filtered up to the statewide media level yesterday:

Republican Mark Dix of Brooklyn (Flag City USA and Bruce Braley's home town) announced in no incumbent House District 76. That's all of Poweshiek COunty and most of Iowa County. Dems have recruited Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly and like their chances in a very closely divided district (registration edge D+217 on Map Day).

Cara Kennedy-Ode officially joins a a sure to be crowded primary field in heavily Democratic House District 36. Incumbent Janet Petersen is going for a empty and friendly Senate seat.

The Democratic nomination will be decisive here; only question is whether that's decided in the primary or, if no one gets 35 percent, at a party convention. Something to think about if you're considering Ed Fallon's advice to go to the GOP caucuses, since the central committee members and party delegates who decide such things are chosen on caucus night.

Bly Announces in House 76

Bly Announces in House 76

Democrats have another House recruit, this time in a must-win empty swing seat. Grinnell city council member Rachel Bly has announced in House 76.

Bly won her first council term in 2009. She has a ward seat, so she's only been elected out of the southwest quarter of the city (campus is the northeast). But that's still some name ID in the district's biggest city.

A complete Poweshiek County akes up 60% of the turf. Grinnell was the scene of epic legislative battles last decade. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.

The old Carroll-Palmer-Vander Linden district was in a Poweshiek-Mahaska format. Both Palmer and Vander Linden are from Mahaska, and this announcement likely means Osky-based Palmer won't be moving. Vander Linden is staying put to the south and running; his pair-up problem was resolved when Pella's Jim Van Engelenhoeven retired. Carroll was Grinnell-based, but got his votes in Mahaska.

About 40% of the seat is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, and most of the Amanas. Johnson County Dems take note: this one's literally an across the road neighbor. You can doorknock Williamsburg and shop at the outlet mall after. Swingy turf, but way friendlier for a Democrat than Oskaloosa.

The Iowa County part was represented by Keokuk County based Betty De Boef, who's paired up with Jarad Klein and hasn't announced plans other than NOT primarying Klein.

Overall the seat had a Map Day Democratic registration edge of 217, so right on the edge. Your move next, GOP.

District of the Day: Senate District 38, House Districts 75 and 76

District of the Day: Senate District 38, House Districts 75 and 76

Senate District 38

Registration: D 12356, R 12322, N 16759, total 41472, D+ 34
Incumbent: Tim Kapucian, R-Keystone

Clean, easy to comprehend lines in Senate 38: Benton, Iowa, Poweshiek. Three whole counties. That's a big move south for Benton-based Senate freshman Tim Kapucian. The old district had just a bit of Iowa (Marengo to be exact) then went west and north to take in most of Tama and all of Grundy.

Benton is still the biggest county in the district, and Kapucian won his home county by 1000 in a 53% to 47% 2008 win when Republican John Putney retired. And dropping Tama helps, as Democrat Randy Braden carried that county. But Kapucian rolled up the score in Grundy, and the new lines give him a dead-even district. Under the old lines, the GOP had a 2,500 registration edge. And this seat votes on the presidential cycle, which means maximized student turnout in Grinnell.

House District 75

Registration: D 5671, R 5854, N 8611, total 20149, R+ 183
Incumbent: Dawn Pettingill, R-Mt. Auburn

Pettingill took this seat, with a lot of party help, in 2004, overwhelming longtime Republican Dell Hanson by more than 1200 votes. But she was a thorn in the side of the Democratic caucus from the get-go, flaking off on many key issues. In a move that was played for maximum drama, Pettengill defected to the GOP on the last day of the 2007 session. (Then-speaker Chris Rants had telegraphed a "big announcement," and for a few hours the rumor mill thought it was his own resignation.)

So Democrats wanted this one bad in 2008, but Pettingill won with 55%, down just two points from her percentage as a Democrat in 2006. Then Democrats lost the 2010 race at the candidate recruitment stage, failing to find a challenger.

Other than her party, almost nothing has changed for Pettingill, who keeps her entire old district. In Iowa County she adds one township, which includes the unincorporated metropolis of Conroy. This is kind of a District Draws Itself thing; Benton County's population is 85% of an ideal House district and the county stays whole. The minimal changes mean this stays a swing seat.

House District 76

Registration: D 6685, R 6468, N 8148, total 21323, D + 217
No Incumbent

While the changes in Pettengill's district are trivial, this seat is completely reconfigured, combining cores of two different old districts and ending up with no incumbent.

The old districts went vertical. Eastern Poweshiek County and most of Iowa County (plus the leftovers of southeast Tama County) were in old House 76, represented by Keokuk County based Betty DeBoef. Old 75 had most of the population of Poweshiek: Grinnell and Montezuma. That was a hot swing seat for
multiple cycles. Democrat Eric Palmer and Republican Danny Carroll fought three straight contests; Carroll won the first in 2004, Palmer knocked him off in 2006 and thwarted the 2008 comeback. But in 2010 the wave swept out Palmer and replaced him with Guy Vander Linden.

Palmer and Vander Linden are both Oskaloosa-based, but Mahaska County isn't part of this turf. We'll look at that on Friday. What we have today is a horizontal district where about 60% is a complete Poweshiek County, and about 40% is the bigger part of Iowa County: Williamsburg, North English, Victor, most of the Amanas.

The Palmer-Carroll battles had counter-intuitive results: Democrat Palmer lived in red Oskaloosa, but won his margins of victory in Grinnell. Carroll lived in Grinnell but performed better in Mahaska. The question for Democrats: can they introduce Palmer to a friendly realtor in Grinnell? As for DeBoef, check back tomorrow.


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