Great Scott! A Primary?

Great Scott! A Primary?

The QCTimes notes what I had a couple weeks back: Senator Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine, IS staying put and running in Senate 46. Most folks, including me, had this pegged as a Hahn retirement from about Map Day forward.

The article says this means "setting up a likely Republican primary against his colleague, Sen. Shawn Hamerlinck," and is centered around this assumption. But it also notes "Hamerlinck left himself some wiggle room Friday, when he said he hadn’t guaranteed he’ll run in the district, but added, 'It’s my intention that I will.'"



Hamerlinck already goes home to a different home than he did when elected. He was on the Davenport city council when he knocked off Frank Wood in 2008. And some of his old turf is in Senate 49, the only empty odd-number seat in the state. (Odd seats normally vote on the gubernatorial cycle. But if he moved in, Hamerlinck would have to run for a two year term since the 2008 term expires.)

One complication with that move: Andrew Naeve, who lost to Democrat Tod Bowman by just 71 votes last year, has already announced (and he didn't file for re-election to his school board seat). So Hamerlinck could get a primary either way.

And this wave just keeps rippling upstream: Bowman, whose Maquoketa home is drawn out of Clinton-based Senate 49, is paired up with Dubuque County's Tom Hancock. But note this item: "State Rep. Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque, and state Sen. Tod Bowman, D-Maquoketa, will hold a public hearing Monday in Dubuque to get additional input in advance of the recommendations to transform Iowa’s education system."

In Dubuque. Well north of Bowman's old lines. That's telling me Bowman stays and runs in the Jackson-rural Dubuque Senate 29, which wraps around the Dubuque city limits. That points to a Hancock retirement...

I started this post out with two Republicans and ended up with two Democrats. So let's assume there IS a Hahn-Hamerlinck primary. It'd be the second confirmed two incumbent primary in the state, joining the sure to be epic Pat Grassley-Annette Sweeney House battle. And it's be on even terms: exactly half the district is Muscatine County, exactly half is Scott. That kind of contest usually comes down to friends and neighbors and which half has higher turnout. Things like an interesting primary for a courthouse job could make the difference.

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Also noted, and much less interesting, in Scott County: Rep. Linda Miller announces for re-election in Bettendorf's House 94. She knocked off incumbent Joe Hutter twice in 2006: first in the primary, then again when he ran independent in the general. Miller hasn't had an opponent since.

And in Cedar Rapids, Renee Schulte takes time off the Romney campaign -- yes, Iowans, there IS a Romney campaign -- to announce for her own re-election in HD66. The Dem she knocked off in `08, Art Staed, has already announced; Bleeding Heartland has a good look.

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Here's some long reads that don't fit anywhere else:

Craig Robinson smacks down the pizza guy: "Herman Cain has a book due out in October. One has to wonder if his presidential bid is more about selling books than becoming the GOP nominee." Hey, when does Newt publish again?

As would-be GOP saviour the Platypus is turning out to be just Texas tea, the background on why the Bushes and Rick Perry are on the outs.

Let Obama Be Obama vs. Let Obama be Harry Truman.

And my favorite dream of the week: "If America truly is serious about dealing with its deficit problems, there's a fairly simple solution. But you're probably not going to like it: Enact a single-payer health care plan." Who said I wasn't going to like it?

Legislative Updates from Tiffin

Who Cares About Presidential Politics? I Need District Of The Day Updates!

In addition to the four presidential candidates, several GOP legislators were on hand at the multi-county fundraiser in Tiffin. As Iowa's worst case of OCD - Obsessive Compulsive Districts - I discussed The Map with a few:

Rep. Jarad Klein of Keota says of his pair-up with Betty De Boef: "I think Betty's made it pretty clear she isn't interested in running for the House seat." That would leave Klein as the only incumbent in the House District 78 race.

As for De Boef, Klein says, "Whatever else she does is up to her." The Rumor Mill says De Boef may be interested in taking on Democratic Senator Tom Rielly in Senate District 40. That would require a move on her part, but it would be a move back toward her original turf (she moved east from Mahaska to Keokuk County after getting paired in `01.) And it would be a move into very GOP friendly turf. Rielly is number two on the GOP Senate target list, right below Mike Gronstal.

Muscatine's Jim Hahn says he will be running for re-election in 2012 in Senate District 46, but hasn't discussed plans with his new district mate, Shawn Hamerlinck, since shortly after the map came out. Hahn did note that Hamerlinck's home is close to the line. (Is a move in the making? Will Hamerlinck "go home" to a new home?)

Senator Tim Kapucian of Keystone isn't paired up in Senate District 38, but noted that two-thirds of his turf is new. He believes his strong agricultural background will serve him well with his new voters.

Also on hand was Lee County Supervisor Larry Kruse, newly minted candidate in Senate District 42. Kruse may be the last to know whether or not longtime Democratic incumbent Gene Fraise, who turns 80 next year, is running again. But he says he hasn't heard rumors of any other Democratic names.

District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

District of the Day: Senate District 46, House Districts 91 and 92

Senate District 46

Registration: D 12145, R 11684, N 16335, total 40178, D + 461
Incumbents: Shawn Hamerlinck, R-Davenport and Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine

Our last week of District Of The Day begins with our last two-incumbent seat. A different pair of House districts gets combined, pairing up two Republican senators from two different counties. This new combined seat is exactly half and half: one House seat that's all Muscatine, one that's all Scott. (Specifics under each.) Making matters worse, it's a swing district with a very slight Democratic tilt, and both of the House districts have been won by Democrats in recent years.

Jim Hahn of Muscatine went to the House in 1990. He moved over to the Senate in 2004 when long-timer Dick Drake retired. That district went north into Jeff Kaufmann's Cedar County based House district. Hahn loses all of Cedar County, and the northern tier of Muscatine, and a tiny piece of Johnson that he won't miss much.

What he gets instead is a chunk of western Scott County and Shawn Hamerlinck. The Davenport city council member knocked off Democrat Frank Wood in 2008 by just 384 votes. That district went north into Republican Steve Olson's House district that was about half rural-suburban north and east Scott County and half rural-suburban south and west Clinton County.

Hamerlinck had kept a relatively low profile until a couple weeks back, when he told a delegation of students testifying about education funding to "go home." Most bets are that Hahn, who'll be 76 be Election Day 2012, calls it quits. Will Hamerlinck also "go home" after 2012?

House District 91

Registration: D 6054, R 6166, N 7394, total 19620, R+ 112
Incumbent: Mark Lofgren, R-Muscatine.

When Hahn went to the Senate in 2004, Republican Barry Brauns tried a comeback after a two-year hiatus. But Nathan Reichert, who had run an unexpectedly close race in a 1995 special election for county auditor, won a big upset to become the first Democrat to take the Muscatine district in recent memory. He stayed atop the target list but beat the incumbent sheriff in 2006 and a city council member in 2008, only to sink beneath the wave in 2010. (Reichert may be interested in a comeback, either here or in the Senate race.)

Mark Lofgren, a first time candidate in 2010, finally took this seat back for the GOP, winning by 1500 votes. This is another District Draws Itself, as the city of Muscatine is 75% of ideal district size. Lofren also keeps suburban Bloomington Township (a GOP stronghold) and the same three townships in eastern Muscatine County including Stockton. He sheds one rural township to the west and adds the Fruitland area. This adds a little population and makes a swing seat even closer.

House District 92

Registration: D 6091, R 5518, N 8941, total 20558, D + 573
Incumbent: Ross Paustian, R-Walcott

No one really thought Elesha Gayman to have a chance in 2006, when the netroots activist shocked Jim (The Elder) Van Fossen. Gayman set a record, since broken by Anesa Kajtazovic, as the youngest woman elected to the legislature.

Gayman had a target on her back from day one in this rural-urban split district in northwest Davenport and western Scott County. Republicans recruited Farm Bureau leader Ross Paustian. But Gayman, who was briefly reported as a loser on Election Night 2008 until the absentees came in, held Paustian to 47% in the Obama wave.

Gayman's retirement - an odd term to use for a 32 year old - days before the 2010 filing deadline was just as surprising as her election. Democrat Sheri Carnahan made a serious effort, but Paustian had never stopped running after 2008 and won with 57%. He's kept a relatively low profile his first session.

The district keeps almost the same lean, a very slight D tilt, on paper. That should help Frank Wood, who joins Bill Heckroth and Rich Olive as former Democratic Senators attempting comebacks on the House side. (Anyone checked in with Staci Appel?) Wood, who announced June 15, narrowly (480 votes) knocked off Republican incumbent Bryan Sievers in 2004 despite the GOP trend, before falling to Hamerlinck in 2008 despite the Democratic trend. Wood ran county-wide in 2010, losing a supervisor race but running slightly ahead of the other two Democrats in a vote-for-three swept by the GOP.

As for the lines, the city portion shifts north (losing all its riverfront) and east to roughly Highway 61. Out in the county Paustian keeps very similar lines, and most of the county west of Davenport. He loses Buffalo and gains the city of Donahue, and keeps Eldridge, Long Grove, Walcott and Blue Grass.

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