Great Scott! A Primary?

Great Scott! A Primary?

The QCTimes notes what I had a couple weeks back: Senator Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine, IS staying put and running in Senate 46. Most folks, including me, had this pegged as a Hahn retirement from about Map Day forward.

The article says this means "setting up a likely Republican primary against his colleague, Sen. Shawn Hamerlinck," and is centered around this assumption. But it also notes "Hamerlinck left himself some wiggle room Friday, when he said he hadn’t guaranteed he’ll run in the district, but added, 'It’s my intention that I will.'"



Hamerlinck already goes home to a different home than he did when elected. He was on the Davenport city council when he knocked off Frank Wood in 2008. And some of his old turf is in Senate 49, the only empty odd-number seat in the state. (Odd seats normally vote on the gubernatorial cycle. But if he moved in, Hamerlinck would have to run for a two year term since the 2008 term expires.)

One complication with that move: Andrew Naeve, who lost to Democrat Tod Bowman by just 71 votes last year, has already announced (and he didn't file for re-election to his school board seat). So Hamerlinck could get a primary either way.

And this wave just keeps rippling upstream: Bowman, whose Maquoketa home is drawn out of Clinton-based Senate 49, is paired up with Dubuque County's Tom Hancock. But note this item: "State Rep. Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque, and state Sen. Tod Bowman, D-Maquoketa, will hold a public hearing Monday in Dubuque to get additional input in advance of the recommendations to transform Iowa’s education system."

In Dubuque. Well north of Bowman's old lines. That's telling me Bowman stays and runs in the Jackson-rural Dubuque Senate 29, which wraps around the Dubuque city limits. That points to a Hancock retirement...

I started this post out with two Republicans and ended up with two Democrats. So let's assume there IS a Hahn-Hamerlinck primary. It'd be the second confirmed two incumbent primary in the state, joining the sure to be epic Pat Grassley-Annette Sweeney House battle. And it's be on even terms: exactly half the district is Muscatine County, exactly half is Scott. That kind of contest usually comes down to friends and neighbors and which half has higher turnout. Things like an interesting primary for a courthouse job could make the difference.

---

Also noted, and much less interesting, in Scott County: Rep. Linda Miller announces for re-election in Bettendorf's House 94. She knocked off incumbent Joe Hutter twice in 2006: first in the primary, then again when he ran independent in the general. Miller hasn't had an opponent since.

And in Cedar Rapids, Renee Schulte takes time off the Romney campaign -- yes, Iowans, there IS a Romney campaign -- to announce for her own re-election in HD66. The Dem she knocked off in `08, Art Staed, has already announced; Bleeding Heartland has a good look.

---

Here's some long reads that don't fit anywhere else:

Craig Robinson smacks down the pizza guy: "Herman Cain has a book due out in October. One has to wonder if his presidential bid is more about selling books than becoming the GOP nominee." Hey, when does Newt publish again?

As would-be GOP saviour the Platypus is turning out to be just Texas tea, the background on why the Bushes and Rick Perry are on the outs.

Let Obama Be Obama vs. Let Obama be Harry Truman.

And my favorite dream of the week: "If America truly is serious about dealing with its deficit problems, there's a fairly simple solution. But you're probably not going to like it: Enact a single-payer health care plan." Who said I wasn't going to like it?

District of the Day: Senate District 28, House Districts 55 and 56

District of the Day: Senate District 28, House Districts 55 and 56


Senate District 28

Registration: D 11590, R 13174, N 15205, total 39999, R+ 1584
No Incumbent

House District 55

Registration: D 5909, R 6694, N 7269, total 19895, R+ 785
Incumbents: Andrew Wenthe, D-Hawkeye and Roger Thomas, D-Elkader

Wenthe's old district was anchored by Oelwein and included most of Fayette, the eastern half of Bremer and part of northern Black Hawk. It had a Republican lean about the same as this seat.

Thomas had all of Clayton County, the smaller part of Fayette, and a bit of northern Delaware (up to but not including Manchester). That district had an even party split, so this turf is less hospitable.

The new district changes radically. It includes the part of north Fayette where Wenthe lives and just three townships of Clayton plus the city of Elkader, which happens to be where Thomas lives. Oelwein is out; the district is now dominated by Decorah and most of Winneshiek, which neither one of them had before (see below).

Wenthe and Thomas seem to be working out their pair, at least according to Wenthe:

"Politically, it wasn't the most perfect map for either Roger or me," Wenthe said. "But that's sort of how the system works and we both voted for it because it was deemed to be a well-constructed map."

Wenthe said he or Thomas could move into the open Senate District 28, which covers parts or all of Winneshiek, Fayette, Allamakee and Clayton counties. Or one could move south to challenge Rep. Dan Rasmussen, R-Independence, in House District 64.

Based on which district has more of the old turf, the Senate seat seems to be a better fit for Thomas. The Senate district has all of his Clayton base plus all of Allamakee, most of Winneshiek and north Fayette, going south to Fayette and Wadena. House 64 goes south to Oelwein and Independence so that move would be more apropos for Wenthe.

House District 56

Registration: D 5681, R 6480, N 7936, total 20104, R+ 799
Incumbent: Bob Hager, R-Dorchester

This was a heartbreaker for Democrats in 2010. Just two years earlier, Democrats saw enough of an opportunity when longtime Republican Rep. Chuck Gipp retired that they had a four way primary. Decorah Democrat John Beard, who'd done well in an unsuccessful 2004 Senate race, won that with a majority and gained the seat for the Dems with an 1800 vote November win, in a seat which on paper had an 1100 voter registration edge for the GOP.

And as of filing deadline in 2010, Beard was unopposed. But Republican Bob Hager got in late, and the climate of 2010 was too much for Beard. (If you want to think of it as a silver lining, if Beard had won a second term, House 55 would have been an all-Democratic triple-up with Wenthe and Thomas.)

The friends and neighbors dynamic explains this race nearly as much as partisanship. The old district was close to half and half, Allamakee and Winneshiek. Beard won Winneshiek but Hager won Allamakee by just a little more, for a 257 vote win in the district.

Hager, who's announced for a second term, sheds Winneshiek in the new plan and picks up pretty much all of Clayton County from Thomas (except Roger's hometown Elkader). The new lines give him 300 fewer Republicans, but he does get the pink elephant at the Miss Marquette casino which should make for a great photo op.