Great Scott! A Primary?

Great Scott! A Primary?

The QCTimes notes what I had a couple weeks back: Senator Jim Hahn, R-Muscatine, IS staying put and running in Senate 46. Most folks, including me, had this pegged as a Hahn retirement from about Map Day forward.

The article says this means "setting up a likely Republican primary against his colleague, Sen. Shawn Hamerlinck," and is centered around this assumption. But it also notes "Hamerlinck left himself some wiggle room Friday, when he said he hadn’t guaranteed he’ll run in the district, but added, 'It’s my intention that I will.'"



Hamerlinck already goes home to a different home than he did when elected. He was on the Davenport city council when he knocked off Frank Wood in 2008. And some of his old turf is in Senate 49, the only empty odd-number seat in the state. (Odd seats normally vote on the gubernatorial cycle. But if he moved in, Hamerlinck would have to run for a two year term since the 2008 term expires.)

One complication with that move: Andrew Naeve, who lost to Democrat Tod Bowman by just 71 votes last year, has already announced (and he didn't file for re-election to his school board seat). So Hamerlinck could get a primary either way.

And this wave just keeps rippling upstream: Bowman, whose Maquoketa home is drawn out of Clinton-based Senate 49, is paired up with Dubuque County's Tom Hancock. But note this item: "State Rep. Chuck Isenhart, D-Dubuque, and state Sen. Tod Bowman, D-Maquoketa, will hold a public hearing Monday in Dubuque to get additional input in advance of the recommendations to transform Iowa’s education system."

In Dubuque. Well north of Bowman's old lines. That's telling me Bowman stays and runs in the Jackson-rural Dubuque Senate 29, which wraps around the Dubuque city limits. That points to a Hancock retirement...

I started this post out with two Republicans and ended up with two Democrats. So let's assume there IS a Hahn-Hamerlinck primary. It'd be the second confirmed two incumbent primary in the state, joining the sure to be epic Pat Grassley-Annette Sweeney House battle. And it's be on even terms: exactly half the district is Muscatine County, exactly half is Scott. That kind of contest usually comes down to friends and neighbors and which half has higher turnout. Things like an interesting primary for a courthouse job could make the difference.

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Also noted, and much less interesting, in Scott County: Rep. Linda Miller announces for re-election in Bettendorf's House 94. She knocked off incumbent Joe Hutter twice in 2006: first in the primary, then again when he ran independent in the general. Miller hasn't had an opponent since.

And in Cedar Rapids, Renee Schulte takes time off the Romney campaign -- yes, Iowans, there IS a Romney campaign -- to announce for her own re-election in HD66. The Dem she knocked off in `08, Art Staed, has already announced; Bleeding Heartland has a good look.

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Here's some long reads that don't fit anywhere else:

Craig Robinson smacks down the pizza guy: "Herman Cain has a book due out in October. One has to wonder if his presidential bid is more about selling books than becoming the GOP nominee." Hey, when does Newt publish again?

As would-be GOP saviour the Platypus is turning out to be just Texas tea, the background on why the Bushes and Rick Perry are on the outs.

Let Obama Be Obama vs. Let Obama be Harry Truman.

And my favorite dream of the week: "If America truly is serious about dealing with its deficit problems, there's a fairly simple solution. But you're probably not going to like it: Enact a single-payer health care plan." Who said I wasn't going to like it?

District of the Day: Senate District 49, House Districts 97 and 98

District of the Day: Senate District 49, House Districts 97 and 98



Senate District 49

Registration: D 13524, R 10139, N 16918, total 40602, D+ 3385
No Incumbent (?)

There's already an announced candidate for this seat and a second contender mulling it over, even though we don't even know if it will be on next year's ballot. Odd-numbered seats normally run on the gubernatorial cycle, but this is the only odd number seat with no incumbent in residence on Map Day.

Democrat Tod Bowman beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes last year in old Senate 13, to become the only freshman Democrat in the Senate. That seat included the city of Clinton and northern Clinton County. It went north to pull in all of Jackson County, where Bowman lives in Maquoketa. It also had a small piece of Dubuque County, up to the south city limits.

The new district turns around and faces south. Clinton County is whole, and northern Scott County is included (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). Thus a district that was maybe half Clinton County is now about 3/4, and a district that had a Democratic edge of 7,500 registered voters sees that lead cut in half. Naeve actually won the Clinton County part of the district by about 500 votes. Bowman rolled up his winning margin in Jackson County, which is now gone. And there squats the toad, because Bowman is paired with fellow Democrat Tom Hancock of Epworth up in new Senate 29.

Naeve has already announced here. And Clinton Mayor Rodger Holm may or may not also be running on the GOP side.

But since Bowman was just elected last year, in an old district that overlaps this new district, he can hold over till 2014 if he moves south. Bowman can also hold over in District 29... but only if Hancock retires. (Hancock has to run either way, because his old district was even so his four year 2008 term expires.) The Democratic margin is better in District 29, and the two Democrats have till February to work things out. If no other candidate runs, perhaps former local businessman William Drayton may be interested.

House District 97

Registration: D 6174, R 5931, N 9044, total 21161, D+ 243
Incumbent: Steve Olson, R-DeWitt

Olson went to the House in 2002 when the Clinton-Camanche area was redrawn . He got a relatively close 56-44 race in 2008 but then went unopposed in 2010, which shouldn't happen in what was a near even swing seat.

And it still is a swing seat, getting even a little more Democratic. In Clinton County, Olson keeps Camanche, DeWitt and everything west. On the north, Lost Nation stays in the district and Delmar is added. The changes are marginal in Scott as Olson swaps a couple Bettendorf-bordering townships: Pleasant Valley is out, Lincoln is in. He keeps Le Claire, Princeton, and most of the Wapsi River border; Donahue and Long Grove are carved out and sent south to Ross Paustian's district.

House District 98

Registration: D 7350, R 4208, N 7874, total 19441, D+ 3142
Incumbent: Mary Wolfe, D-Clinton

The District Draws Itself, Boyee: In the 2000 Census, the city of Clinton dropped below 1 percent of the state population for the first time, and instead of getting split down the middle got kept together. That meant a pair-up of Republican Clyde Bradley and Democrat Polly Bukta, but Bradley retired.

When Bukta retired in 2010 she backed attorney Mary Wolfe, who was nominated with no primary (in contrast to the four-way open seat Senate primary that Bowman went through). Republicans had the best circumstances they could get: an open seat, a good cycle, and a credible candidate in former school board member David Rose. But Rose fell 424 votes short.

Since we're in The District Draws Itself range (city of Clinton population=88% of ideal district size) there's little change in Wolfe's party margin. Continued population loss in the city means adding Low Moor (so small on the map scale that I had to read the legislation to see if it was in or out) and three small towns and townships on the Clinton-Jackson line: Charlotte, Goose Lake and Andover.

New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

Clinton Mayor Rodger Holm May Run For Senate District 49

Schrödinger's Seat in Clinton
Also: Pat Grassley announces in House 50

According to Clinton Herald reports, mayor Rodger Holm may or may not be running for a state senate seat that may or may not be on the ballot next year.

Daily Kos Elections (formerly Swing State Project), the same people who gave us the useful term Some Dude, calls this circumstance "Schrödinger's Seat":

A district which has borders that, due to reapportionment and/or redistricting, are not yet known, but which candidates nonetheless are considering running for. Once the district lines are known, such candidates might find themselves in a very sweet spot - or they might find themselves without a district to run in.

In this case we know what the lines of new Senate District 49 are: all of Clinton County and northern Scott County (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). What we don't know is if there will be an election next year.

Tod Bowman (D-Maquoketa) beat Republican Andrew Naeve by just 70 votes last year in old Senate 13 which went north from Clinton into Jackson and Dubuque counties. In the new map, Bowman, who lives in Jackson County, is paired up with Epworth Democrat Tom Hancock.

Since Bowman was elected to a four year term in a district that overlaps with new Senate 49, he can move south into this district and hold over until 2014. But if Hancock retires, Bowman can hold over, in a more Democratic district and without moving, and Senate 49 will be on the ballot.

Clear as mud? So are Holm's plans. On Monday (6/13) Holm, a registered Republican, announced he was not seeking re-election as mayor. But by Friday (6/17) he was wavering on the decision to step down as mayor:

“My decision is still the same,” Holm said, reiterating that he would likely not run for re-election, “but I’ve had so many people contact me about reconsidering. That makes me rethink things a little bit.”

State re-districting has created a new senate seat, a position that intrigues Holm. He had previously announced that if he decided to pursue the senate seat, he would not seek re-election as campaigning would be too great a distraction from his mayoral duties. However, Holm said that he hadn’t completely ruled out seeking a second term as mayor.

Two more twists: his predecessor as mayor LaMetta Wynn (who ran for and lost the same senate seat in 2006) wants to move back into City Hall. And Naeve has
already announced his candidacy.

And the decisions that matter here won't even be made in Clinton; they'll be made in Maquoketa and Epworth.

In other redistricting-related news, the next move in the GOP game of chicken in House District 50 as Pat Grassley announces for re-election there. As everyone still reading this blog knows, Grandson is paired up with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney, and neither has a good move to make. Ball's in your court, Sweeney; do we see a fratricidal primary here?

And speaking of Some Dude, which I was a few paragraphs ago, we have an excellent example in the Register: "A 24-year-old criminal justice student from Des Moines’ south side who announced today that he plans to challenge an incumbent Democrat suspended his campaign after he discovered that he no longer lives in the district."

District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58

District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58

Today's turf illustrates one of the problems with the District Of The Day format of examining the map one-fiftieth at a time. It's hard to discuss these districts without getting caught up in discussing their neighbors. We've got paired districts next to empty districts, seats where we don't even know if we'll have races, and a member of House Republican leadership in a strongly Democratic seat.

Senate District 29

Registration: D 16109, R 9681, N 15915, total 41722, D+ 6428
Incumbents: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa and Tom Hancock, D-Epworth.

The only two Democrat Senate pair. Basically, freshman Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district.

Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.

Hancock, 63, went to the Senate in 2004, knocking off half-term Republican Julie Hosch by just 122 votes. (In 2002 it was an empty even-number presidential cycle seat.) The 2008 re-elect was much easier. His old district 16 was most of rural Dubuque plus Jones and most of Delaware. This seat sheds all of Delaware and most of the population of Jones, and adds Bowman's base of Jackson County.

Last month Bowman, 46, said "he doesn’t plan on moving, although he added it’s not impossible." He could move south into Clinton-based Senate 49 and hold over till 2014. Or he could, in theory, also stay here and hold over if Hancock retires. No matter who goes where, Hancock, a traditional anti-choice Dubuque Democrat, would have to run again if he wants to stay in office. He was elected in an even number seat in 2008 and that term expires. If Hancock stays here it would be a two-year term and he would then have to run again in 2014.

Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats contain three Republican members. These districts are both must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.

House District 57

Registration: D 7648, R 5322, N 7796, total 20780, D+ 2326
Incumbent: Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna

Under the old lines, Lukan had a break-even district. He took over the seat in 2002. One-term Democrat Andra Atteberry had been kind of a fluke-winner in 2000, defeating foul-mouth freshman Republican Mike Jager, and she got burned by the 2001 map. Lukan beat her with 65%, one of the bigger wins on record against a non-scandalized incumbent, and has settled in to log a decade of tenure and rise into leadership at age 32, with comfortable wins and a free ride in 2010.

Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who gets screwed bad with this map. He loses Republican Manchester and southern Delaware County. The new seat pulls all the way into Dubuque County. He gets almost all of the county outside the city limits, except Cascade and a few rural township remnants right next to Dubuque. Soon after The Map came out, Lukan told the Register: "It's not going to be easy, but the numbers don't scare me. I think I understand how the district performs, and I think I can win."

That said, he might be able to get away with a move next door into open House 96 in Delaware and Jones. The Iowa Republican also considers Lukan as a possible retirement (a funny term for a guy in his early 30s) noting Lukan is getting married this summer in Des Moines. Administration job? In any case, as an insurance agent, he's more mobile than the two members paired in House 58...

House District 58

Registration: D 8461, R 4359, N 8119, total 20942, D+ 4102
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingle and Lee Hein, R-Monticello

UPDATE June 29: Hein announced June 25 he'll be running in House 96. Hat tip: anonymous reader.

...two farmers who can't easily move. Two freshman Republicans who knocked off Democratic incumbents on Democratic turf. Two one-term wonders?

Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win. He's been much quieter his first session than other first-term upset winners like Kim Pearson and Glen Massie.

The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250). Can Moore repeat that win as a known quantity in a presidential year?

Hein's win was less fluky than Moore's. Republicans and Farm Bureau had targeted this seat and Hein, a Monticello school board member, was considered a main-chance contender, not an afterthought like Moore. Hein beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach, who knocked off Republican Gene Manternach in 2004. Zirkelbach missed two full legislative sessions on two different tours of military duty, and given the circumstances was unopposed in 2006 and won easily in 2008. But in the climate of 2010, Hein scored an 800 vote win in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge.

The old Zirkelbach-Hein district included all of Jones County and the southwest quadrant of rural Dubuque (Cascade, Epworth, Peosta and Farley). The Anamosa-Monticello core of Hein's old seat is the anchor of new 96. Moore, meanwhile, lives at the very edge of Jackson County and the district. My best guess is one of these guys makes a Senate run (if Hancock stays and 29 is on the ballot -- remember, if Hancock quits, Bowman holds over till 2014) and one of them stays in this seat. Or maybe they just primary it out. Either way, my bet is neither of them is back in the 2013 session.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

Naeve announces in Senate 49

Republican Naeve announces in Senate 49

Clinton Republican Andrew Naeve, who fell just 71 votes short of winning a strongly Democratic Senate seat last year, has announced in new Senate District 49, which covers much of the same ground and has no incumbent.

But it's not entirely clear yet whether there will even be a contest.

Naeve, an East Central School Community School Board member, lost narrowly to Tod Bowman, the only Democrat to win an open seat in 2010. In the new map, Bowman is paired with fellow Democrat Tom Hancock of Epworth in Senate District 29.

Old District 13 included the city of Clinton and a northern tier of the county including Delmar, Charlotte, Goose Lake and Andover It went north to take in all of Jackson County and a corner of Dubuque County.

Jackson County is completely outside the new Senate 49, which takes in all of Clinton County and the northeast corner of Scott (including LeClaire, Princeton. McCausland and Park View). Democrats have a registration edge of 3,385 which ain't bad... but in old District 13 they had a lead of more than 7,500 and barely won.

Naeve actually won the Clinton County part of the district by about 500 votes. Bowman rolled up his winning margin in Jackson County.

If Bowman were to move within his old Senate district, say, into Clinton County, he would be considered a holdover senator and his four-year term would continue till 2014. However, recent speculation points another direction: Bowman could also stay put in Maquoketa and hold over in District 29 if Hancock, age 63, retires. (Hancock was elected in 2008 so he would have to run no matter what.) District 29 is better for a Democrat by about 3,000 voters.

If there is an election in Senate 49, it would be for a two-year term; as an odd number seat District 49 will be on the ballot in gubernatorial years. As of Map Day it was the only odd number seat with no incumbent.

Here's the press release:

CLINTON – Andrew Naeve, a sixth generation family farmer from Clinton, has announced his intent to run for the newly created Senate District 49, a seat which includes all of Clinton County and portions of northern Scott County. Naeve, a Republican, came just 71 votes shy of being elected to the Senate in 2010 in a heavily Democratic district.

A lifelong Iowan raised on a family farm, Naeve, 26, graduated from Cornell University in Ithaca, NY, with a degree in Farm Business Management and Finance. Upon graduation, Naeve returned to Iowa to join his father and grandfather on the family’s corn, soybean and cattle farm in rural Clinton County.

As a recent college graduate who returned home to Iowa to pursue his career, Naeve is running because he wants to see his generation and future generations be afforded the chance to stay in Iowa or come to Iowa to obtain a good job and raise their families in safe communities and good schools.

“I came back home to Iowa because I believe in Iowa and the opportunities and values that thrive here,” said Naeve. “I am running because I want to focus on finding new ways to create private sector jobs so we can grow our state again. I want my generation and future generations of Iowans to be able to pursue their dreams in Iowa, find a rewarding career and raise their family,” he continued.

Besides focusing on job creation and educational excellence, Naeve says he wants to cut the overall cost of government, better prioritize the state’s spending and work to reduce Iowa’s high property tax rates. As a family farmer, Naeve understands the burdens placed on small businesses by excessive government and says he looks forward to continuing to meet with the citizens of Clinton and Scott Counties and continue the conversation about the future of Iowa.

Andrew is married to Kristin Naeve. In addition to his work on his family farm, Naeve is Vice President of the East Central School Community School Board and a member of Faith Lutheran Church in Andover.