District of the Day: Senate District 37, House Districts 73 and 74

District of the Day: Senate District 37, House Districts 73 and 74

Senate District 37

Registration: D 14731, R 9499, N 13327, total 37,613, D + 5232
Incumbent: Bob Dvorsky, D-Coralville

One of the biggest surprises of the whole map for me was that Bob Dvorsky did not get pulled all the way into Johnson County. The People's Republic was the second fastest growing part of the state in the last decade, behind only Dallas County. We are now big enough for a second whole Senate district. Most of that growth has been in Dvorsky's old district, in places like Tiffin, North Liberty, Solon, and the I-380 corridor.

We did get our fourth whole House seat (check back Thursday for that) but instead of getting that paired with his Coralville base, Dvorsky was sent east for the first time, picking up all of Cedar County and the city of Wilton in Muscatine County, all of which had been in Muscatine Republican Jim Hahn's territory. Bob's original House district, which he won in 1986, went west to Iowa County. When he went to the Senate in a hurry-up February 1994 mid-session special (infamous for an election day blizzard) he got a half-Johnson, half Linn district. The Linn part shrank in 2001, moving out of Cedar Rapids and becoming about a 75% Johnson seat, but the basic configuration remained.

Within Johnson, Dvorsky sheds ground to the west this decade: Tiffin, North Liberty, Oxford, Swisher, Shueyville. He keeps Coralville, Solon, and Penn Township (the rural subdivisions north of Iowa City) and the northeast corner of the county. He also adds one precinct on the west side of Iowa City (for my locals: Iowa City 9).

Though this remains maybe a 60% Johnson County district, the addition of swingy Cedar County and heavily Republican Wilton costs Dvorsky nearly 2,500 registered Democrats. But with a still solid margin he can afford it. Republicans last bothered opposing Dvorsky in 2002; he beat a Libertarian in 2010 and holds over till 2014.

House District 73

Registration: D 6518, R 5718, N 7589, total 19841, D+ 800
Incumbent: Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton

Kaufmannn took over for Dan Boddicker in 2004 and has risen quickly in House GOP leadership. The old seat was almost dead-even with a Democratic registration edge of 29 as of this April. But he's been lucky with opponents. A well-funded 2006 race netted just 37%; a 2008 self-starter quit the race but neglected to take her name off the ballot, and a late-starting Dem polled just 27% in 2010 (worse than Name On The Ballot did in 2008).

But Kaufmann has more to worry about next year than the collapse of the Newt Gingrich campaign. While he keeps all of Cedar County and the GOP stronghold of Wilton, he loses the northern tier of Muscatine County: West Liberty, Atalissa and Moscow. Instead he inherits a much larger portion of the People's Republic. Last decade he had two townships, trailer court dominated Scott and negligibly small Lincoln. He keeps Scott and adds four townships to the north (Newport, Big Grove, Graham and Cedar) plus the city of Solon.

Kaufmann was one of the handful of no votes on The Map. He said it was because Cedar County was put in an urban-based Senate district. But it's worth noting that the partisan balance shifts in his own seat, which now has a Democratic registration edge of 800. West Branch city council member David Johnson has announced on the Democratic side, and other names are in the rumor mill.

House District 74

Registration: D 8213, R 3781, N 5738, total 17772, D+ 4432
Incumbent: Dave Jacoby, D-Coralville

Big growth means big changes in Dave Jacoby's lines, but District Draws Itself math means Coralville stays in one piece and dominates whatever House district it's in. Jacoby went from the city council to the House in the summer of 2003 when then minority leader Dick Myers retired. That special election, which Jacoby won with 71%, was the last time Republicans ran a candidate. In fact, Jacoby's 2010 opponent actually left the GOP to run as a Libertarian, a sign of just how weak the GOP brand is in Johnson County. He didn't do much worse at 20%.

Earlier in the year, Jacoby had handled a bizarre labor-backed primary challenge (the opponent dropped out after the withdrawal deadline, then at the last minute hinted at dropping back in), winning 88% to 12%.

North Liberty grew so much that it has to be split from Coralville for the first time. Jacoby also gives up Tiffin and picks up one precinct on the west side of Iowa City. (That happened to be Mary Mascher's precinct; she quickly announced her move back into her district, now numbered 86.) Jacoby's new district has 1000 fewer Democrats than the old, but that's more a function of shedding the excess population rather than changes in the strong Democratic edge.


New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map

Democrat Johnson announces in House 73

Democrat Johnson announces in House 73

Other names are in the rumor mill, but the first Democratic candidate has officially announced in House District 73.

The West Branch Times reports that West Branch city council member David Johnson is seeking the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Jeff Kaufmann, R-Wilton.

Johnson said he plans to run on “a conglomeration of issues ranging from the lack of funding for our institutions of higher education as well as K-12 and preschool, the need for tax increment finance reform, reform in the regulation of our utilities, corporate income tax reform as well as eliminating corporate welfare at all levels.”

The Cedar County based House District 73 (numbered 79 in the old map) changes significantly. It loses most of northern Muscatine County, except for the city of Wilton. It also takes in a much larger part of eastern Johnson County, including the city of Solon.

The changes give the new district a Democratic voter registration edge of 800. Kaufmann's old district was almost exactly evenly split between the parties. Johnson toldthe West Branch paper:

“Jeff will be a formidable candidate, even with the redistricting,” Johnson said. “But I believe that by starting my ground campaign this summer, I will be able to have sufficient one-on-one contact with my constituents to give the voters a sense of who I am, and what I intend to do. Constituents need to have a real connection and accessibility to their representatives. I intend to give them that. There is no doubt that a lot of voters see Jeff as having a pleasant personality, so the task for me will be to run against his record.”

If he's elected it could be confusing: there's already a David Johnson in the Legislature, Senator David Johnson of Ocheyedan (who was featured in our first District Of The Day).

Update: Blog for Iowa's Paul Deaton (who lives in the district) notes: "Two others are mulling a run in HD73. Informal Meetup of HD 73 Dems Thursday April 28 7PM Agave Restaurant West Branch all Democrats welcome."

District of the Day: Senate District 1, House District 1 and 2

District of the Day: Senate District 1, House District 1 and 2



Senate District 1

Registration: D 9761, R 18,483, N 14,968, total 43,229, R + 8722
Incumbents: Jack Kibbie, D-Emmetsburg and David Johnson, R-Ocheyedan

UPDATE April 25: First day, first district, first update. Alert reader Beth Schopis notes that Kibbie told a local forum on April 13: "I'm not going to run in 2012. Remember, you heard it here first." Thanks for the many years of service, Jack. This means no race in Senate 1 next year as Johnson will hold over.

We start with a big one: two senators of opposite parties paired. District 1 is five whole counties in the state's northwest corner: Dickinson and Clay, Lyon, Palo Alto and Osceola, in order of population. (Census trivia: Dickinson and Clay recorded EXACTLY the same population: 16,667.)

Senate President Kibbie keeps only Palo Alto from his 2000s district; he had Dickinson and Clay in the 90s. He loses Emmet and Kossuth, which go east into open District 4, and Pocahontas, Humboldt, and a sliver of Webster, which go south to Ft. Dodge's Daryl Beall.

Johnson keeps Dickinson, his home county Osceola and most of Clay (including the city of Spencer). He loses O'Brien and a sliver of Sioux to Randy Feenstra, and instead gets blood-red Lyon County, which he had in his 1990s House district.

Kibbie, at 81 the oldest legislator, has served consecutively in the Senate since 1988, and also served eight years in the House and Senate in the 1960s. He was re-elected with 71% in 2008 in old district 4 against a "Grassroots For Life Party" candidate ("Tea Party" didn't enter the nomenclature till 2009). Johnson, 60, moved over from the House in 2002 and was comfortable in old Senate District 3; 59% in 2006 and unopposed in 2010.

KICD radio offered a story with a lot of regional roundup the day the Legislature approved the map:

Kibbie (noted) "it's impossible I think for any Democrat to win that district. It is a big plus for the Republicans." He noted his pleasure with the current map and the previous one but says "I'm not satisfied whatsoever with the way the map is. It is always hard to elect a Democrat in Northwest Iowa but this makes it worse."

Senator Johnson tells KICD News "personally I don't have a problem with the plan to reconfigure the district I currently represent." He did express disappointment with O'Brien County not being included in the proposal.

The even-odd factor comes into play here. (Even-number Senate districts normally go on the ballot in presidential years; odd numbers are on the governor cycle.) Kibbie is at the end of a four year term. If he stays and runs, it would force Johnson to run two years early for a two year term. But with Kibbie himself saying it's "impossible" to win this district, that's a big ask to make of a guy who'll be 84 by Election Day 2012. Kibbie says he'll announce his plans post-session, word is he's expected to retire. That would let Johnson hold over till 2014.

House District 1

Registration: D 3936, R 11,506, N 6802, total 22,251, R+ 7570
Incumbent: Jeff Smith, R-Okoboji

Smith, 43, won an easy primary and had no opposition in the 2010 general to take over old district 6 from fellow Republican Mike May. KICD:

Smith would be included in House District 1 which would be comprised of the upper two thirds of Dickinson County, as well as Osceola County which is currently represented by Republican Royd Chambers and Lyon County which is represented by Republican Dwayne Alons.

Smith's old district 6 was basically Spirit Lake, Okoboji and Spencer. In the new map he keeps almost all of the Iowa Great Lakes population core of Dickinson and heads west to Osceola and Lyon. His old very Republican district becomes a very, VERY Republican district.

House District 2

Registration: D 5825, R 6977, N 8166, total 20,978, R+ 1152
No incumbent

This empty seat is all of Clay and Palo Alto, with the southern third of Dickinson thrown in. Much of this was Smith's. Palo Alto was in Democrat John Wittneben's old district 7.

This could be an escape route for Royd Chambers, who is paired with fellow Republican Dan Huseman in new District 3. But his no vote on the map makes me think he quits or dukes it out in a primary instead. It's an opportunity for a Spencer or Emmetsburg Republican such as 2010 candidate Lannie Miller, who lost to Wittneben on turf that leaned Democratic. And Democrats like Kibbie have won in this general area in living memory. (Indeed, if Kibbie were younger this might be a place for one of those Senate to House moves we sometimes see in map years.) Longtime rep Marcy Frevert voluntarily retired last year and saw Wittneben hang on to the seat.

Links: New Map | New Map (Insets) | Old Map