UPDATE: Hillary, McCain
Following this week's pair of eat-your-peas, no hot topics or interaction allowed Des Moines Register debates, the state's biggest paper has made its endorsements: Hillary Clinton and John McCain.
The Register Stamp of Approval has historically been a good omen for candidates since the paper started endorsing in the 1988 caucus cycle.
The candidate who may have gained the most from a Register endorsement was John Edwards. Edwards had been lagging in relative obscurity as the Gephardt vs. Dean war raged. But Iowa awoke the morning of January 11, 2004 to read:
John Edwards -- his time is now
By Register Editorial Board
January 11, 2004
When we first met John Edwards, we were inclined to write him off as the possible Democratic presidential nominee. The North Carolina senator is short on experience in public office. Nearly all his rivals are far more seasoned.
The abundance of well-qualified candidates makes choosing among them difficult.
Until Edwards is given a closer look. The more we watched him, the more we read his speeches and studied his positions, the more we saw him comport himself in debate, the more we learned about his life story, the more our editorial board came to conclude he's a cut above the others.
John Edwards is one of those rare, naturally gifted politicians who doesn't need a long record of public service to inspire confidence in his abilities. His life has been one of accomplishing the unexpected, amid flashes of brilliance.
In retrospect, the Register endorsement was seen as a key moment in Edwards' rapid climb to a close second place finish and eventually the vice presidential nomination.
Of course, the pundits inside the Des Moines beltway don't always have an impact. The only endorsed candidate who completely fizzled was the Register's 2000 Democratic choice -- Bill Bradley.
The paper said it backed the underdog because "Bradley's vision is compelling. Moreover, there is a fundamental decency about him that would bode well for healing the festering, partisan wounds that have produced virtual stalemates in our national government."
A Bradley spokesman said the campaign believed the endorsement would have implications beyond Iowa.
The endorsement landed January 23, literally the day before the caucuses. The next night, Al Gore beat Bradley two to one in Iowa. Dollar Bill made it close in New Hampshire, but faded fast and was out of the race after the next big wave of primaries in early March.
The Register's Republican choice, George W. Bush, fared better. But his most serious challenger, John McCain, didn't contest Iowa,
Bill Clinton never got a shot at a Register endorsement. The paper doesn't endorse unopposed incumbents, and in 1992 they canceled their endorsements and debates entirely since home state candidate Tom Harkin has scared everyone else off. Thus the only Register endorsement of the 1990's went to Bob Dole. The February 5, 1996 editorial called Dole "one of the major political figures of the century."
"He's been the national chairman and the party's candidate for vice president," the newspaper said. "He has led Republicans when they were in the minority as well as in the majority. He served Republican presidents loyally. Who is better to carry the G.O.P. banner?"
And indeed, Dole did carry the party banner that fall. But Iowa was only a three point win for Dole, and if not for a surprising shoring for Alan Keyes in Linn County, Bat Buchanan could well have won.
Dole also won both the Register endorsement and the caucuses in 1988. But George Bush The Elder mad a strong comeback from his third place, behind Pat Robertson Iowa finish. Dole left the 1988 race after an oh-for-16 March 8 Super Tuesday.
On the Democratic side in `88, the Register went with Paul Simon, who came very, very close to a win. (Some die-hard Simon loyalists still insist that delayed results cost him the credit he deserved.) Simon struggled after Iowa. He managed a home-state win in Illinois on March 15. But after pulling less than 5 percent in Wisconsin on April 5, the man in the bow tie dropped out. In the end, the 1988 nomination fight came down to two men whose fate wasn't affected by Iowa: Michael Dukakis and Jesse Jackson.
Register's 2008 Endorsement Editorials:
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