The Michigan Pseudo-Primary is now history, and everyone is trying to have it both ways. As Iowans recall, way back on August 31, when Michigan and Florida broke the Democratic National Committee’s rules and scheduled their primaries in the middle of the time set aside for the official early states, the top six candidates all signed a pledge not to campaign in the rule-breaking “leapfrog” states.
I (name), Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as "campaigning" is defined by rules and regulations of the DNC.
For the most part, the candidates stayed away from Michigan. There were no rallies, no pre-planned spontaneous stops in diners with the TV scrum in tow, and thankfully no January field canvassing in the Upper Peninsula.
Most of the candidates took it a step further by taking their names off the Michigan ballot, which set up Tuesday’s weird shadow race. Hillary Clinton already had it both ways by leaving her name on the ballot, along with the late lamented Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Des Moines). There was also Dennis Kucinich (who actually tried to get off the ballot, screwed up the paperwork, then reversed position and said he was "standing up for Michigan"), who’s now reduced (if that’s possible) to suing for debate access and demanding New Hampshire recounts to see if his total climbs from 1.66% to 1.68%. Oh, and there was Mike Gravel, who will pretty much do anything to force me to include his name in the goal of completeness.
But Obama and Clinton were drawn like moths to some kind of shadow battle in Michigan. Politicians can’t help it; it’s in the DNA.
The Clinton camp is claiming a victory of sorts, rolling up a majority against Uncommitted, and gleefully adding the Michigan delegates – who still, officially, wink wink, aren’t going to be seated at the national convention – to her tally. At the same time, they’re criticizing Obama for encouraging a vote for Uncommitted, saying that amounted to… campaigning.
...The Obama campaign had no problems when its supporters and allies in Michigan ran radio ads and other campaign activities urging people to vote for "uncommitted" as a way to register their support for Senator Obama -- and to give him a chance to compete for those delegates at the national convention... Now, with polls in recent days showing that effort and their candidate running far behind in both states, the Obama campaign has shifted tactics to say that those who cast a vote in either state don't matter. We couldn't disagree more.
Team Obama, meanwhile, says they weren’t campaigning or encouraging an Uncommitted vote: “The Obama Campaign is not participating in the Primary and has not instructed supporters in Michigan whether or how to vote,” said a statement from Obama spokesman Bill Burton. “The results of the (Michigan) primary have no bearing on the Democratic nomination contest.”
Fundraising in the leapfrog states is allowed within DNC rules, and Clinton has already scheduled a Jan. 27 Miami “fundraiser.” “There are signs – despite Senator Clinton’s public pledge to the contrary – that she may be planning to campaign in the state – inquiring about large venues and increased organizing activity – ahead of the Florida primary,” Burton said in the Obama campaign statement.
Did anyone expect otherwise? Does anyone believe that, the moment the polls close in the last early state, South Carolina, on Jan. 26, that none of the Democratic candidates will make a beeline for Florida for a furious weekend’s worth of campaigning?
No one has ever seriously expected that the DNC will actually unseat Michigan and Florida. We all know how the dance is going to play out. The nominee will say, “Seat the delegates,” and Howard Dean will say “Yeaaaaah!” No one wants to hurt Democrats in those key swing states. But, lest the DNC and the candidates forget, Iowa is a swing state, too, a swing state proud of our caucus tradition, proud of fairness, proud of playing by the rules. And the nation is so evenly divided that our puny seven electoral votes could make the difference. What we’re seeing now is the true test of commitment to the process, the rules, and the early states.
Obama, with his landmark Iowa win under his belt, is more or less defending the process despite the uncommitted feint. Clinton, on the other hand, proved that she has five days -- maybe only five days --worth of retail politics in her in New Hampshire, running the campaign she should have run in Iowa, shortening the speech, taking questions, being genuine for a long weekend. But it’s clear from her campaign’s counting the Michigan delegates, and from the blatant scheduling of the Florida stop the day after South Carolina, that she’s barely even willing to pay lip service to Iowa’s role. Witness the blame the caucus process rhetoric that Clinton started even before Jan. 3, continued after her third place finish, and has already started prior to Nevada’s similar process.
Speaking of having it both ways, the Clinton campaign has complained that caucuses are “disenfranchising,” yet led the attack on student caucusing in Iowa. And Clinton-loyal unions are trying to shut down Nevada’s “at large” caucus sites, set up for hotel shift workers, in the wake of the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union Local 226 endorsement of Obama.
Michigan’s delegates will be seated in Denver. The state has already had its real punishment: not getting to see the candidates. It may be Florida, positioned after the first four states but still before Tsunami Tuesday, that truly gets to have it both ways.
But it may be Iowa that gets the last laugh. If Tsunami Tuesday doesn’t settle the nomination, and it goes to state-by-state guerilla warfare, Iowa will get to speak up again. Those county conventions are March 15, and Iowa may be in the position of mattering not just for the Jan. 4 headlines but also for the actual, relative handful of delegates. By then, convention goers will be able to look back and see who played loose with the rules and who played fair.
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