The Night's Biggest Number: Democratic Turnout

The Night's Biggest Number: Democratic Turnout

In a night full of numbers, the most important statistic is two to one – Democratic turnout over Republican turnout. In all honesty, I though the Democrats saturated the electorate in 2004 and got out every single person who could potentially caucus. I was wrong by about half, as Democratic turnout nearly doubled to almost 240,000. The Republicans, however, only increased by about a third from eight years ago.

Those margins will be reflected in voter registration statistics soon, and the fresh lists of new caucus goers give the Democrats an organizational advantage going into the fall. Most of all, it’s a strong sign that Democrats are enthusiastic about their candidate and their chances.

Here’s some other numbers that tell part of tonight’s story:

57% - Percentage of Democrats under 30 who caucused for Obama. Hillary Clinton won 45% of those over 65.

47 cents – Obama’s midnight, post-results price on the Iowa Electronic Markets, indicating that investors give him a 47 percent chance at the nomination. That’s up from 28 cents yesterday. Clinton dropped from 59 cents to 51. John McCain is leading the Republican field at 30 cents.

9% - Victory margin for Mike Huckabee, much more than expected. The flurry of negative anonymous emails and goofy revelations seemed only to strengthen the resolve of Huckabee’s supporters, and the late, newspaper endorsement driven resurgence of John McCain helped widen the gap.

3.5% - Rudy Giuliani’s sixth place showing. We all knew he wasn’t trying hard, but 3.5% makes Fred Thompson look like the Hardest Working Man In Show Business. Rudy was closer to no-show Duncan Hunter than to fifth place Ron Paul.

50:50 – Odds that Fred Thompson will quit because he doesn’t feel like doing the New Hampshire debate.

1 – Chris Dodd delegate in the whole state, in Pottawatamie County.

Minus two – Goodbye, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. Catching a brief glimpse of the Biden announcement, it seemed Jill Biden was more saddened by the end than the candidate. He’s up for re-election in Delaware this fall. Daily Kos was praising Dodd earlier in the day and suggesting he’d make a good replacement for Senate leader Harry Reid. Silence from Team Richardson tonight.

0 - Hillary Clinton delegates in Iowa City Precincts 3, 5, 11, 19, 20 and 21.  Clinton was non-viable in the two University of Iowa dorm precincts (3 and 5), student-dominated 11, 19, and 20, and student-influenced 21.  The "students shouldn't caucus" flap may not have helped.  Turnout was down from in Precinct 5 from 320 in 2004 to 134 this year, but University Democrats chair Atul Nakhasi was pleased with the mid- break attendance.  In Precinct 3, 208 showed up, "a little less but not much" than 2004, said Nick Johnson, the law professor who's long chaired his precinct.

1 – effective ad as John Edwards carried Jasper County. He spoke often of the Maytag plant closing in Newton, and his final ad consisted almost entirely of a laid off Maytag worker speaking, with Edwards saying nothing more than the legal disclaimer. Edwards had another strong cluster of support in southern Iowa, while Clinton won the western border and a chunk of north central Iowa, and Obama took eastern and most of Central Iowa.

20 years - The most interesting pronouncement I heard on caucus night. "20 years ago was when this all began," said an Obama supporter who was a veteran of the 1988 Jesse Jackson campaign. The rap on the Iowa caucuses has always been that Iowa is “not diverse enough,” code for “95% white.” But maybe, just as overwhelmingly Protestant West Virginia gave Catholic John Kennedy a boost in 1960, Iowa Democrats have listened to those back of the hall murmers -- “I just don’t know if people are ready” – and answered them tonight.