McCain: Eight Years Too Late?

McCain: Eight Years Too Late?

John McCain gets his South Carolina win eight years too late, thanks mainly to the Fred playing spoiler for Mike Huckabee. In fact, with Thompson's motivations so unclear, and the widespread speculation that he'll endorse McCain, is it possible that Fred stayed in just to play spoiler?

McCain may go down as a semi-tragic figure like Bob Dole, beaten by the Bushes on the first serious try (I'm not really counting Dole `80) then nominated after their time. I was a downballot candidate in a Republican leaning district in `96, and over and over I heard the same thing, the election compressed into three words: "Dole's too old."

The smartest thing McCain could do, right now, would be a one-term pledge. It would take the fight out of the Republicans who aren't enthusiastic about him, and even some of the Democrats, because everyone would see another chance in four years. It would also enhance the image of Maverick McCain, beholden to no one.

As for the rest of the GOP: Rudy in sixth yet again. Ron Paul is second in Nevada with about 12%, but that's only because of the Mitt's overwhelming, Mormon-base driven win. For all the sound and fury, the REVOLution is stalled pretty close to the 10% zone, consistently, everywhere. (Except SC, where it was only 4.) Hard to see where Huckabee goes from here -- is there friendlier evangelical turf anywhere than South Carolina?!? Fred may have burned him just the way Wes Clark burned John Edwards in `04, hanging on one week too long.

And Duncan Hunter finally hung it up, without ever answering the question "why?"

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The GOP needs a perfect storm to win, and one of the weather conditions is Hillary as the Democratic nominee. Did she take a step closer in Nevada? Reeeealy hard to say. We're in the midst of a spin war dust storm, as Obama claims a delegate win based on an non-Vegas sweep while Team Hillary says a win is a win.. Kos of course takes a chance to process bash, but the charges of dirty pool in Vegas make me think squeaky clean Iowa is a nice place to start.

I don't expect the brokered convention fantasy. Tsunami Tuesday will settle it, with a late nationwide swing one way or another.

As for Edwards? That 5% really hurts, as as much as Team Edwards hates the spoiler argument, it's time to think about that. The role of Iowa this cycle was to choose Obama over Edwards in the Not Hillary primary, and to eliminate the entire second tier, if not the indefatigable third tier.