Three Republican candidates are tightly bunched in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, where people place real money on the line to predict the nomination outcome.
As of 9 a.m. Caucus Day, Mitt Romney led the Republican market with a 26.4 cent price (or a 26.4% chance of winning the nomination.) A resurgent John McCain recently moved into second place at 25.1 cents as of 9 a.m. He traded for as little as 8 cents as recently as Dec. 7.
Rudy Giuliani, who led the field most of the way,has dropped to 23 cents. The market predicts likelihood of winning the nomination, not Iowa caucus percentage.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic market at 57.5 cents. Barack Obama is at 30.8 cents and John Edwards is third at 10.6 cents.
Prices on both sides are likely to shift rapidly overnight as the caucus results are reported. The nominations are a winner take all market; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.
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