The 50-strong awkward squad threatening Blair's third term

The 50-strong awkward squad threatening Blair's third term

Interesting take from the Times of London:

Seems some on the Labour Left are quietly hoping for a reduced majority in the next Parliament.

Traditionally, in a parliamentary system, MPs stick very closely to the party line. Blair has a majority of 159 so he can afford a certain lack of party discipline; 50 defections won't cost him a loss.

Contrast that with the last Tory government of 1992-97. John Major came out of the election with a majority of only 21, and with by-election (I like that term for "special" election) losses had actually dropped to a minority by the 1997 election.

Should Labour slip to a significantly smaller majority, the mavericks on the left - disturbed by the rightward drift under Blair and ESPECIALLY the war - could be the balance of power. Blair could face a confidence crisis which could meaning "standing down" to save Labour government.

My thought is that's a more likely outcome of anti-war sentiment than a Lib Dem breakthrough. Blair's eventual downfall will come not at the ballot box, but like Thatcher, in a backbench revolt.

UK Election