Iowa City Primary

Iowa City Primary: Hayek Romps, Vanderhoef Squeaks

Matt Hayek won almost every precinct in tonight's Iowa City primary, except a couple dismal turnout student areas.

Almost as remarkable as Hayek's huge win was the collapse of Dee Vanderhoef's support. She pulled in a dismal 22% and only held on to the fourth and last spot by about 60 votes. Rumors were flying just after filing deadline that one of the candidates was considering dropping out. Speculation focused on last place finisher Brandon Ross -- but could it have been Dee? Not much evidence of campaigning except a few yard signs...

Vanderhoef's vote dropped dramatically on the east side, and her only relatively bright spot was precinct 8 on the west side.

Mike Wright had a strong second place showing at 39% with bright spots in some of the core progressive precincts like 18 and 21 (where he was active in neighborhood associations). He also had a good showing in my precinct 10, usually not a progressive hot spot. Wright won't gain much from the Ross loss, though, as he probably already got most of Brandon's second votes.

If Brandon Ross had gotten started a little sooner, he might have actually knocked Dee off. Maybe conservatives wanted that? Wright and Ross splitting votes in the general would have helped Terry Smith... Smith was third and strongest in the usual working class Tory precincts -- 12, 14, 15, where the jail was popular and public power was not. He also did well in 6 and 25 which have a lot of seniors, and 16 which includes high-end housing like Windsor Ridge. What's most interesting is how much stronger he ran than Vanderhoef. It's almost as if conservatives did some triage.

Look at this election as a bell curve. 20% on the left of the left with Brandon Ross, 39% with mainchance progressive Wright. 22% on the right with registered Republican incumbent Vanderhoef, 34% for Reddy Kilowatt. And Matt in the middle getting votes from everyone. The only way the math adds up is if people were voting Hayek-Wright and Hayek-Smith, with slivers on either end voting Ross-Wright and Smith-Hayek.

With the second lowest turnout ever for a city primary, tonight's predictive value is weak. Still, we see Hayek's strength and Vanderhoef's weakness setting up a Smith vs. Wright showdown. And this battle will happen in a much different electorate. With 21 Bars on the ballot, you won't see numbers in the student precincts like today's 5 votes in precinct 5, 13 votes in precinct 3, or 7 votes in precinct 11.