Now that Iowa Democrats are preparing to officially join the Republicans and set Jan. 3 as caucus night, the only question mark left in the convoluted and contested calendar is the continuing game of brinksmanship between New Hampshire and Michigan.
It's still widely assumed that New Hampshire will vote on Jan.8, leaving a five-day gap after Iowa. That's less than the eight days the two states have agreed upon since 1984. But it may still give Iowa the same importance as it's had in recent years. "Given the 'speeding up' of news cycles in the last four years, five days could be 2004's 8 days in terms of impact," University of Iowa political science professor David Redlawsk told Iowa Independent. "And 8 days was enough for John Kerry to ride the wave."
But New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner still hasn't set the Granite State date, and Michigan made noise last week about setting a Democratic caucus on whatever day the New Hampshire primary is scheduled. The threat seems less an effort to increase Michigan's influence, and more an attempt to push New Hampshire (and, by extension, Iowa) off the table.
So what happens if, in a worst case scenario, New Hampshire and Michigan move to December and Iowa isn't first? "It doesn't matter if New Hampshire and/or Michigan move into December," said Redlawsk. "There would be a couple weeks after them to focus back on Iowa. And given the investments in this state, I don't see candidates suddenly pulling out of here no matter what New Hampshire and/or Michigan do."
Meanwhile, the top Democrats in two other early states are telling Gardner to get a move on. "It is time for the nominating process to be settled," wrote Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Rep. James Clyburn, the top elected Democrat in South Carolina, in a Friday letter. Reid and Gardner also took a shot at the leapfrog states:
If Florida, Michigan or any other state wanted to be a part of the “pre-window,” its opportunity to say so was last year, when the decisions were being made.
Florida and Michigan are important states in the general election, with issues that are unique and imperative to be addressed, but by unilaterally setting their dates in the “pre-window,” they are flouting the rules set up by the entire Democratic National Committee.
The uncertainty still evident in the nominating process makes clear that we need to have more discussion about how to ensure that more Democrats have a say in picking our eventual nominee.
However, the unilateral approach being taken by states to bypass the rules and stall finalizing the calendar is the type of intransigence that only hardens feelings from other states.
Back home in Iowa, campaigns are settling in for Jan. 3. In Johnson County, turnout may be dramatically affected. The original Jan. 14 date fell near the end of the University of Iowa's break, but Jan. 3 is right in the middle.
"Having the caucus date on break in the first place made it a great challenge to reach out to students in order to get them to caucus," said Atul Nakhasi, head of the University of Iowa Democrats.. "With the move to even deeper within the break, the challenge will be a bit greater even more so now."
"We hope to have an immense caucus educational/awareness push in the month of December that hopefully will give students motivation and momentum they can carry over break until Jan. 3rd," said Nakhasi. "And I know campaigns are orchestrating their own efforts geared towards getting students out on Jan. 3rd as well."
The Obama campaign has a program of "Hometown Caucus Captains" for students who'll be in their Iowa home towns on caucus night. "This program is so students will know their caucus location in their home town," said Emily Jakobsen of Students for Obama. "This has been going on even before the caucus moved up."
Nakhasi said the University Democrats are also encouraging in-state students to caucus back home if it is most convenient and simple for them to do so. "Out-of-state students are highly encouraged to contact the various campaigns in Iowa City to arrange for their transportation and housing over break back in Iowa to participate in the process as well," he added.
At Bleeding Heartland, desmoinesdem speculates that football may play a role in the outcome: "Hillary could benefit if more men than women stay home to watch the college football championship game." But two months out, nothing is easy to predict (other than that Iowa's teams won't be in the big football game, despite Iowa's big overtime win against Michigan State -- take that, leapfroggers!).
"At this time in 2004, it would have been two tickets out," said Redlawsk, "and Dean and Gephardt would have them."
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