On July 2, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee stood in an aisle between booths at a Coralville Perkins restaurant. As the server worked around him, the Republican presidential candidate took questions from a couple dozen members of the local Chamber of Commerce. After the event, Huckabee had time to elaborate on his tax proposals, and his favorite rock bands, at an impromptu outdoor press conference with two reporters.
That evening, Democrat Joe Biden of Delaware, a veteran of 34 years in the Senate, stood near a makeshift stage on the Ped Mall in downtown Iowa City. A small crowd encircled the senator at first but grew slowly as passers-by realized that one of the contenders for Leader Of The Free World was taking questions on any subject from all comers. A C-SPAN camera recorded the proceedings.
Defenders of the Iowa Caucuses argue that retail politics, of which the Biden Q&A and the Huckabee lunch were classic examples, make the process special. But with the emergence of "rock star" candidates in both parties, events six months before the caucuses feel more like rallies in October of general election years.
The day after Huckabee and Biden visited Johnson County, a dozen television crews stood on a 15-foot-high platform, shooting signals to nearby satellite trucks. Roughly 30 yards away, Sen. Hillary Clinton was addressing a crowd of thousands on the University of Iowa campus as former President Bill Clinton sat nearby in his new role as "activist without office."
While her speech was solid, the public interaction was limited. A private event after the speech gave some Democratic Party leaders an opportunity to speak with the Clintons, but the typical caucus-goer was able only to push forward to a three-deep reception line for a chance at a brief handshake.
It's not that the Clinton campaign is necessarily averse to public interaction. It's simply that there are not enough hours in the day for Clinton, or rival Democrat Barack Obama, to talk with everyone who wants to talk to them. Both Clinton and Obama drew thousands to the University of Iowa campus. The sheer size of such events makes dialogue difficult.
The John Edwards campaign, at recent stops I've observed, seems to be addressing the interaction issue by shortening the stump speech and lengthening the question-and-answer session. Still, with hundreds in attendance, only six to eight questions usually get answered.
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who has moved up in recent polls to a niche above the asterisks but below the front-runners, drew roughly 200 to a recent event in Iowa City despite short notice and a midday weekday time. Richardson was able to take questions from most people who tried to ask, but only by getting so far behind schedule that toe-tapping librarians were ready to push him out the door to clear the room for the next event.
On the Republican side, John McCain drew over 200 people to a late afternoon North Liberty event in May. Otherwise, the top Republicans have mostly bypassed highly Democratic Johnson County. Though the county's registration is 44% Democratic to 19% Republican (with the rest registered with no party), the county has about 15,000 registered Republicans, among the top ten totals in the state.
Could the one-on-one interaction be an advantage for the asterisk candidates? Despite his low poll standings, Biden recently picked up three legislative endorsements, and he retains a core of loyalists from his abbreviated 1988 run. On the other hand, news of the Biden endorsements was dwarfed by the week's mega-rallies and campaign finance numbers. Has the front-loading and fund-raising grown to a point where the retail reputation of the caucuses is no longer a reflection of the reality?
"At some point it'll plateau," said Dave Nagle, a former congressman who was chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party during the 1984 caucus cycle. He's not committed, but he's talked informally to several candidates. While waiting for Biden to arrive on the Ped Mall, Nagle looked ahead to the next day's Hillary Clinton rally and wondered how the Clinton campaign could top that. "They're bringing former President Clinton out. That's great -- but what are you going to do in September?"
Even caucus night itself has become so big that the wheels and deals of the past are difficult. In 2004, 11,000 Johnson County Democrats caucused, a number equal to the largest Democratic primary in county history. But in a primary, voters show up within a 14-hour voting window, take a few minutes to cast their ballots, and leave. Many don't even do that much on Election Day, having already voted absentee.
But on caucus night, everyone shows up at the same time, and absentee voting is not an option. This compounds parking and space needs. Even physically moving, let alone negotiating, can be difficult.
Rod Sullivan was chair of the Johnson County Democrats for part of the 2004 caucus cycle. He stepped down to run successfully for the Board of Supervisors. Sullivan has been helping the party book caucus sites for 2008.
"Most of our caucuses are in rooms like elementary school gyms that can realistically handle a crowd of about 150," he said. "In 2004, 28 of our 57 precincts had over 200 people show up. Some had well over 400 and a couple had over 500. That's a difficult crowd to manage. It's a good problem to have -- we want people to participate -- but I don't have an easy answer for how to do it."
While the parties try to solve that problem, the early campaigning continues. Republican activity is expected to be intense the next few weeks as candidates gear up for the de facto qualifying heat, the Aug. 11 straw poll in Ames. Second-tier Republicans like Huckabee, Sam Brownback and Tommy Thompson are more or less camping out in the state in July, and a weak showing in Ames could be the end of the road for some. In 1999, two candidates (Elizabeth Dole and Dan Quayle) dropped out after Ames, while Pat Buchanan left the party entirely to take over the remnants of Ross Perot's Reform Party.
On the Democratic side, there's less urgency, but there's still the possibility of a campaign-ending error. "You can lose at this time, but you can't win," said Nagle. "Nothing can cement it now, but a mistake could ruin it."
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