District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

District of the Day: Senate District 34, House Districts 67 and 68

Senate District 34

Registration: D 12637, R 13206, N 15441, total 41336, R+ 569
Incumbent: Swati Dandekar, D-Marion

Dandekar has won national attention as the first woman of South Asian descent in American elected office (take that, Nikki Haley). Her heritage was the subject of whisper campaigns in her first House race in 2002, but once emailed smoking guns surfaced, Republicans had little choice but to scuttle their own candidate. Dandekar, who seemed to be ahead before the nastiness went above ground, became the first Democrat to win the Marion House seat in decades. She's had close races but held on, moving up to the Senate when Republican Mary Lundby stepped down in poor health in 2008. (Lundby had intended to run for the Board of Supervisors in a new district system that kicked in that year, but left that race and passed away just days after her Senate term officially expired.)

Dandekar is up in 2012. Any Democrat in a swingy seat with two GOP House members has to worry a bit, but Dandekar has cut a moderate profile and drawn some bipartisan support, much as Lundby did.

The geography changes a lot, but more than half the seat is still Marion. In fact, since it grew to 34,768, more than the ideal House district size, Marion is split between House districts for the first time ever.

More than any other in the state, this district looks like it was drawn by redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering. But it follows city limits and other regular boundaries; it's the city limits themselves that are a mess, a legacy of last decade's annexation war between Robins, Hiawatha, Cedar Rapids and Marion.

House District 67

Registration: D 5803, R 6916, N 7570, total 20312, R+ 1113
Incumbent: Kraig Paulsen, R-Hiawatha

And the speaker gets to represent all four of those cities. Paulsen used to have a rural-urban mix and took in most of the land area of Linn County. Now he gets an all-metro district, losing eight small towns and three of the four corners of the county. (Most of that goes into open House 95, where Democratic incumbent  Nate Willems is running for Senate instead.) Paulsen keeps Hiawatha and Robins, both of which grew in population and area last decade. He loses the part of Cedar Rapids between the south side of Hiawatha and 42nd Street (precinct 46 and 47). Instead he gets the Bowman Woods area northeast of Council Street and Collins Road (precincts 29, 30, 31). He also gets the 4th ward of Marion, which is basically everything north and west of Indian Creek and is the more Republican part of town.

The old district was a swing seat, with a slim Democratic edge, and Paulsen had relatively close races his first three terms. Then in 2008, his opponent dropped out after voting had already started; the name on the ballot with a D after it still got 42%. Soon after the 2008 election, he took over as Minority Leader from Christopher Rants, and that helped establish him to the point that he avoided opposition in 2010. This new seat gives him an 1100 edge in Republican registration, which combined with his stature as speaker should leave him time to help other folks.

UPDATE July 22: Democrat Mark Seidl, last seen challenging Renee Schulte in 2010, is redrawn into this district and will challenge Paulsen.

House District 68

Registration: D 6834, R 6290, N 7871, total 21024, D +544
Incumbent: Nick Wagner, R-Marion

Wagner keeps the remaining three-fourths of Marion. But he loses the rural stuff he had to the north in Marion and Maine townships. Instead he goes south to the Johnson County line, picking up Bertram, Ely and their surrounding townships. This turns a Republican leaning swing seat into a Democratic leaning swing seat.

Wagner lost to Dandekar in the 2006 House race, but by a credible margin of 685. He came back to win a top tier open seat race over Gretchen Lawyer in 2008, one of the few GOP gains in that Democratic wave year. But to use a sports analogy it was kind of a sacrifice fly; the Dems gave up Dandekar's House seat to take the Senate seat. Surprisingly, Democrats made no effort at all in 2010 as Wagner walked over in an uncontested election.


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District of the Day: Senate District 33, House Districts 65 and 66

District of the Day: Senate District 33, House Districts 65 and 66

Several names repeat themselves in different races on the east side of Cedar Rapids.

Senate District 33

Registration: D 16493, R 11122, N 13692, total 41373, D+ 5371
Incumbent: Rob Hogg, D-Cedar Rapids

Hogg picked up a newly configured House seat in 2002, overcoming a serious GOP effort by former city official Don Palmer by about 600 votes. Hogg moved over to the Senate in 2006, defeating one Schulte, Renee, 59%-41% for a Democratic gain in what had been Chuck Larson's seat. He was re-elected unopposed in 2010 and holds over till 2014.

The old Senate seat had a good Democratic edge (3751 in April 2011) but as seen in 2002 was winnable for Republican Larson. The new lines improve things significantly for Hogg. He loses the Bowman Woods area in northeast Cedar Rapids and the core of downtown, and adds the Czech Village area.

House District 65

Registration: D 8953, R 4788, N 6354, total 20131, D+ 4165
Incumbent: Tyler Olson, D-Cedar Rapids

When Hogg went to the Senate in 2006, Don Palmer tried again, but Olson won easily with 65%. A 2008 Republican opponent quit, and Olson beat an independent in 2010.

The district remains centered in southeast Cedar Rapids. On the north, Olson gives two precincts, 37 and 39, to Schulte. He gains the core of downtown and, jumping the river, Czech Village, both from Kirsten Running-Marquardt. The shifts make his solid Democratic district about 800 Democrats more solid. The convoluted city limits mean this district keeps a long skinny tail along the Cedar River almost to Bertram that redistricting consultant Jerry Mandering likes.

House District 66

Registration: D 7540, R 6334, N 7338, total 21242, D + 1206
Incumbent: Renee Schulte, R-Cedar Rapids

Two years after her Senate loss to Hogg, Schulte came back for a landslide 13 vote House win over one-term Dem Art Staed. Democrats put her on top of the target list for 2010, but wound up playing defense instead of offense, and highly touted attorney Mark Seidl lost by an underwhelming 1100 votes.

Schulte's lines on the north remain the north city limits of Cedar Rapids, though that line itself has moved north and gives the district a strange pair of horns wrapping around Hiawatha. But on the south, where the old line was approximately 29th Street, she picks up two precincts and 900 extra Democrats.

The old district was closely divided, with a Democratic edge of 369, and Staed had won in 2006 by just 365. But as Schulte picks up two precincts to the south, she picks up 900 more Democrats. She was unhappy enough that she was one of the handful of no votes on The Map. Look for Schulte to again be high on the Democratic target list.


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District of the Day: Senate District 32, House Districts 63 and 64

District of the Day: Senate District 32, House Districts 63 and 64

Senate District 32

Registration: D 11414, R 11045, N 17121, total 39602, D+ 369
Incumbent: Brian Schoenjahn, D-Arlington

Schoenjahn was first elected in 2004 with 53% in an open seat race when two term Republican Kitty Rehberg stepped down. He scored an easy 2008 re-elect with 63%.

About two thirds of the old district was two whole counties that met only at a corner: Clayton and Buchanan. The remaining third of the population was made up of what looked like leftover pieces: Black Hawk east of Waterloo, Delaware north of Manchester, and southern and eastern Fayette outside of Oelwein and West Union. That included Schoenjahn's Arlington home.

The new district shifts west, entirely out of Clayton and Delaware. Schoenjahn instead picks up all of Bremer County. Most of Buchanan remains, except four townships and the city of Rowley. Hekeeps parts of Fayette and Black Hawk but the lines change significantly. The Fayette County lines move south and west to add Oelwein, removing Waudena, Fayette and Elgin. In Black Hawk, the district loses the southeast corner around La Porte City. The new line follows the Cedar Falls, Waterloo and Raymond city limits, with everything north and east going to Schoenjahn.

Schoenjahn's old district 12 had a more comfortable Democratic registration edge of 1,269 and the changes drop that margin to 369. Some of the new turf on the west belonged to Bill Dix, who's now paired up in Senate 25 with Rob Bacon. The Dix family farm is reportedly in this seat; does Dix move in and let Bacon hold over in Senate 25? (This would also put Dix back in the 1st CD if the congressional bug bites again.)

House District 63

Registration: D 5225, R 6395, N 9128, total 20761, R+ 1170
No Incumbent

Last decade, Bremer County was split between two House districts, Republican Pat Grassley's Butler-based 17th and Democrat Andrew Wenthe's Oelwein-centered 18th. But it was united in Senate District 9, which changed hands twice. Republican Bob Brunkhorst moved over from the House in 2002 (barely winning the primary) In 2006, Democrat Bill Heckroth won a hard-fought open seat race with
53%.

Heckroth was targeted in a big, big way by the Republicans in 2010. Bill Dix, who had left the House 17 seat in 2006 to run unsuccessfully in the 1st District congressional primary, was on the comeback trail and was the top fundraiser in the state (outside of legislative leadership). That and the wave were too much for Heckroth, who lost 58-42.

But now it's Heckroth on the comeback trail. He's announced very early for a seat where an undivided Bremer County makes up 80% of the population. Almost all the north Black Hawk section was in the old seat, too. The only brand-new turf is the city of Dunkerton (the Senate lines wrapped around it) and a couple townships east of Waterloo. The district still has a GOP registration edge, but the numbers are better than the Senate seat (R + 3820) was.

One district west, Grandson Grassley lives close to the lines, and is paired up with fellow Republican Annette Sweeney. He had a lot of this turf, including Waverly, last decade. Grassley says he won't move, though that doesn't stop Tyler Mills at Des Moines Free Press from speculating about Grassley moving here.

House District 64

Registration: D 6189, R 4650, N 7993, total 18841, D +1539
Incumbent: Dan Rasmussen, R-Independence

First elected in 2002, Rasmussen saw close races. He held on for a 499 vote win against the 2006 wave, then sat out a term after a 759 vote loss to Democrat Gene Ficken in 2008. In the high-profile, high-dollar -- broadcast TV ads in both Waterloo and Cedar Rapids -- 2010 rematch, Rasmussen prevailed by just 208 votes.

With that margin in mind, it's significant that Democrats gain about 200 registered voters
under the new lines. This makes Rasmussen a must-target for Democrats in 2012. Just to the north, Democrat Andrew Wenthe is in a pair-up with a fellow Democrat, Roger Thomas, in a district with a Republican edge. One option is Wenthe moving here, which overlaps quite a bit with his old seat.

Rasmussen keeps almost all of Buchanan County except four small rural townships and Rowley in the southeast. The old turf included southeastern Black Hawk, including LaPorte City and Gilbertville. All of Black Hawk is now gone. The new district goes north into southern Fayette County, taking in Oelwein, Arlington, Maynard, Westgate and Randalia. It stops south of Fayette and Wadena.


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District of the Day: Senate District 31, House Districts 61 and 62

District of the Day: Senate District 31, House Districts 61 and 62

Senate District 31

Registration: D 16166, R 6529, N 13458, total 36176, D+ 9637
Incumbent: Bill Dotzler, D-Waterloo

An excellent Democratic district gets even better with minor line changes. Dotzler moved over to the Senate in 2002 after three terms in the House and has had easy races, winning with 63% in 2010. He keeps all of Waterloo northeast of the river and a similar chunk of the southeast, along with Elk Run Heights, Evansdale and Raymond. The changes are at the edges and are a bigger deal on the map than on the demographics. Dotzler gives up a couple rural fragments and picks up a couple different townships, Gilbertville and Washburn.

House District 61

Registration: D 7062, R 4058, N 6969, total 18,099, D+ 3004
Incumbent: Anesa Kajtazovic, D-Waterloo

Old House 21 had four winners in four cycles. Former TV anchor Tami Wiencek upset longtime legislator Don Shoultz in 2006 for one of the few Republican gains anywhere in the nation that year. Wiencek cut an earnest and moderate profile in her term, but when the chips were down she voted the party line which didn't help in this district. Democrats fought local celebrity with local celebrity, and recruited a seemingly top-tier candidate in former Hawkeye football star Kerry Burt to take the seat back in 2008.

But Burt self-destructed with personal and ethical issues in his first term. Privately Democrats hoped and begged for Burt to step down, but he went ahead and filed for re-election. Enter Anesa Kajtazovic and her feel-good biography: Bosnian refugee gets through college in three years. Burt didn't drop out until he was actually indicted in the school tuition case, after the deadline to take his name off the ballot. So technically Kajtazovic, the only Democrat with the nerve to step up and actually challenge him, beat Burt in the primary with 91% of the vote, which has to be some kind of record against an incumbent.

Republicans who had hoped for an easy gain against a scandalized incumbent were helpless against Kajtazovic, who beat former Waterloo mayor John Rooff with 59% to immediately earn two lines in the record books: first Bosnian-Iowan in the Legislature and at age 24 the youngest female legislator in state history. She's been winning headlines for hard work and enthusiasm, and Kajtazovic is a good bet to be the first incumbent re-elected out of this district since Shoultz in 2004.

Kajtazovic keeps roughly the same chunk of southeast Waterloo. The district grows to the south and east, gaining four rural townships, Gilbertville and Washburn. She sheds Eagle Township south of town. The changes help the district's Democratic margin by about 350 registered voters.

House District 62

Registration: D 9104, R 2471, N 6489, total 18,077, D+ 6633
Incumbent: Deborah Berry, D-Waterloo

Berry, who was then in her first city council term, finished first in the 2002 primary when this seat opened up. But she only won 33%, short of the 35% required. The district then saw two (!) special nominating conventions and some hard feelings, before Berry finally emerged as the nominee after the second convention. (To be direct: three African-American candidates, including Berry, split the primary vote. A poorly attended first convention nominated the lone non-black candidate, who was later persuaded to step down.)

Republicans saw an opening amidst the hard feelings and nominated former county supervisor Norm Granger (yet another ex-Hawkeye footballer). Waterloo has had some history with black Republicans, electing Granger and longtime supervisor Leon Mosley. But the partisan lean of the district helped Berry to a two to one win, with smooth sailing since. A 2006 opponent dropped out, then Berry won an easy three to one 2008 primary win against a power plant opponent (Berry has been, shall we say, utility-friendly in her career). No opposition at all in 2010.

The new district keeps its core: all of Waterloo northeast of the Cedar River. Berry picks up about a precinct in town, loses Poyner township, and keeps Elk Run Heights, Evansdale and Raymond. This is the second most Democratic district in the state, ranking between the two Iowa City seats.


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District of the Day: Senate District 30, House Districts 59 and 60

District of the Day: Senate District 30, House Districts 59 and 60

Cedar Falls may be UNI-ted behind the Panthers, but it's closely divided politically. A lot of tight races here the last few years, and with the lines not changing much we should see more squeakers.

Senate District 30

Registration: D 11778, R 12128, N 14707, total 38695, R+ 350
Incumbent: Jeff Danielson, D-Cedar Falls

After narrowly losing a 2002 House race, firefighter Jeff Danielson gained this seat comfortably when Republican Don Redfern retired in 2004. It was much more dramatic four years later. Danielson held on by a recount-close 22 vote margin over Walt Rogers. This remains a swing district that Democrats will need to hold.

While he may get a tough 2012 race, at least Danielson will know the turf. His entire old district is contained within the new one. He has the whole city of Cedar Falls, which makes up about two thirds of the seat. He drops two townships north of Cedar Falls and the line shifts just a little in Waterloo.

House District 59

Registration: D 5752, R 5264, N 7071, total 18150, D + 488
Incumbent: Bob Kressig, D-Cedar Falls

Kressig, 57, took this seat from one term Republican Ervin Dennis in 2004 by less than 200 votes. He held on for a 106 vote 2006 win over GOP heavy hitter Matt Riesetter, won comfortably for the first time in 2008, and scored a 52% to 48% over bar owner Darin Beck in 2010.

The line through Cedar Falls stays identical. Kressig has the northern two-thirds or so of the city geographically and 3/4 of the city's population, including the campus. He gives up two townships west of town as the district pulls all the way into the city limits. That gives him a couple hundred more Democrats, which given Kressig's past margins is a big deal.

House District 60

Registration: D 6026, R 6864, N 7636, total 20545, R+ 838
Incumbent: Walt Rogers, R-Cedar Falls

UPDATE July 18: Waterloo City Council member Bob Greenwood announces on the Democratic side.

After Rogers missed it by THAT much against Danielson in 2008, he set his sights on the House and Six Pack conservaDem Doris Kelley. She had picked up this seat in the 2006 Democratic wave and beat a late starter easily in 2008. No recount this time for Rogers, as he beat Kelley by almost 1000 votes.

Little changes in The Map for Rogers. He keeps the same piece of south Cedar Falls, the city of Hudson, and a similar chunk of southwest Waterloo. (One precinct, it looks like, goes to Deborah Berry.) He adds the two townships that Kressig sheds, as the district's Republican registration edge improves by about 400 voters. Does he stay with that, or does he go after Danielson again?

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An Overdue Look at the GOP Field

An Overdue Look at the GOP Field

Craig Robinson at THE Iowa Republican (is that like THE Ohio State University?) looks at the Public Policy Polling survey of Iowa Republican caucus preferences, candidate by candidate. This is prompting a few Random Deeth Thoughts, in order of poll finish.

1) A Romney Iowa win, unlikely and unpalatable as it may seem, can still happen but it's more luck than skill. Mitt Romney seems to have a ceiling of support around 30% in Iowa, and make that a bit less as he loses some of his `08 support. If the field stays splintered and Ames doesn't force too many people out, Romney can do what Bob Dole did in 1996: score in the upper 20s and finish first.

1a) There's not room in the field for Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman.

2) I know that early on I joked "Morrie Taylor + Alan Keyes = Herman Cain" but now it looks more like he's filling the Steve Forbes niche, plus whatever residual part of the Trump support was for Generic Businessman as opposed to Bigger and Better Birther. We can check Cain out on Monday as he makes the BVP FAMiLY Leader tour.

3) Tina Fey said it best the Saturday before the 2008 election, standing next to John McCain: "I'm either runnin' in four years or I'm gonna be the white Oprah so, you know, I'm good either way." Palin is runnin' for White Oprah, not for president.

4) Newt Gingrich is the Fred Thompson of this field: the idea of the candidacy seemed better than the reality.

5) There's not room in the field for Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann. Fortunately for Bachmann, Palin is not in this field.

5 1/2 ) There's not room in the field for two Minnesotans.

6) The old joke goes something like this:

A large multinational dog food company decided to come out with the latest and greatest dog food. They had their research scientists design the most nutritious combination of ingredients, containing all the essential vitamins and amino acids required by dogs. They had the marketing department put together a most colorful advertisement and a catchy jingo was thought up for their TV commercial. And they spent gobs of money on TV advertising and splashy full page magazine ads. The engineers designed equipment to make this dog food in the most efficient manner, and the packaging department designed a beautiful box for it. The sales force was trained, and every supermarket chain had shelf space devoted to the dog food.

It did not sell.

So the company CEO gathered his top executives together to have a meeting to discover why. He asked each department "Why isn't our dog food selling?" The research department said there couldn't possibly be anything wrong with their formulation. Marketing was completely stumped. The sales force was mystified. No one had a clue as to what was wrong. Finally, after a long pause, a new employee sitting in the back of the room finally got the courage to say "But the dogs don't like it!"

That's Tim Pawlenty.

7) Ron Paul has a ceiling and a floor of support so close together it's a crawl space. Will make 80 percent of the online noise and take 10 percent of the vote just like last time. That 10 percent will be indigestible by any other candidate, so Paul will continue through the last primary then endorse one of the third party candidates, with no consequences within the House GOP caucus. Just like last time. And just like next time only with Rand. (There's not room in the field for Ron Paul and Gary Johnson.)

8) Rick Santorum is the Sam Brownback of the field, Roy Moore is the John Cox of the field: most likely to vanish after Ames. Who did I forget? If I did it proves the point. Oh, yeah. There isn't room in the field for Buddy Roemer, period.

9) He'll be kept out of debates and probably Ames, but if enough Democrats follow Ed Fallon's suggestion to ratf*** the process to "save the caucuses," Fred Karger will finish ahead of somebody "legitimate." (Democrats: the best way to save the caucuses for 2016 and beyond is to re-elect the president who got his critical early win in Iowa.)

10) This, unless Palin is actually doing something, is the field. Republican Jesus, in the form of Jeb, Christie, Obi-Wan Kenobi You're Our Only Hope, or Zombie Reagan, will not arrive on a white horse to save the day.

District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58

District of the Day: Senate District 29, House Districts 57 and 58

Today's turf illustrates one of the problems with the District Of The Day format of examining the map one-fiftieth at a time. It's hard to discuss these districts without getting caught up in discussing their neighbors. We've got paired districts next to empty districts, seats where we don't even know if we'll have races, and a member of House Republican leadership in a strongly Democratic seat.

Senate District 29

Registration: D 16109, R 9681, N 15915, total 41722, D+ 6428
Incumbents: Tod Bowman, R-Maquoketa and Tom Hancock, D-Epworth.

The only two Democrat Senate pair. Basically, freshman Tod Bowman got drawn into Tom Hancock's district.

Geographically, old Senate 13 was dominated by Jackson County, but the population center was Clinton. Bowman was the ONLY Democratic open seat winner of the cycle, holding the seat for the party after Roger Stewart retired. But it was a tough hold; after getting labor's support in winning his four-way primary with a clear majority, Bowman only prevailed by 70 votes in November. He won his margin in his own Jackson County, and lost the Clinton County part of the district to Republican Andrew Naeve.

Hancock, 63, went to the Senate in 2004, knocking off half-term Republican Julie Hosch by just 122 votes. (In 2002 it was an empty even-number presidential cycle seat.) The 2008 re-elect was much easier. His old district 16 was most of rural Dubuque plus Jones and most of Delaware. This seat sheds all of Delaware and most of the population of Jones, and adds Bowman's base of Jackson County.

Last month Bowman, 46, said "he doesn’t plan on moving, although he added it’s not impossible." He could move south into Clinton-based Senate 49 and hold over till 2014. Or he could, in theory, also stay here and hold over if Hancock retires. No matter who goes where, Hancock, a traditional anti-choice Dubuque Democrat, would have to run again if he wants to stay in office. He was elected in an even number seat in 2008 and that term expires. If Hancock stays here it would be a two-year term and he would then have to run again in 2014.

Despite the strong Democratic edge of this Senate seat, the two House seats contain three Republican members. These districts are both must-wins if Democrats hope to take the House back.

House District 57

Registration: D 7648, R 5322, N 7796, total 20780, D+ 2326
Incumbent: Steve Lukan, R-New Vienna

Under the old lines, Lukan had a break-even district. He took over the seat in 2002. One-term Democrat Andra Atteberry had been kind of a fluke-winner in 2000, defeating foul-mouth freshman Republican Mike Jager, and she got burned by the 2001 map. Lukan beat her with 65%, one of the bigger wins on record against a non-scandalized incumbent, and has settled in to log a decade of tenure and rise into leadership at age 32, with comfortable wins and a free ride in 2010.

Is this heaven? Not for Lukan, who gets screwed bad with this map. He loses Republican Manchester and southern Delaware County. The new seat pulls all the way into Dubuque County. He gets almost all of the county outside the city limits, except Cascade and a few rural township remnants right next to Dubuque. Soon after The Map came out, Lukan told the Register: "It's not going to be easy, but the numbers don't scare me. I think I understand how the district performs, and I think I can win."

That said, he might be able to get away with a move next door into open House 96 in Delaware and Jones. The Iowa Republican also considers Lukan as a possible retirement (a funny term for a guy in his early 30s) noting Lukan is getting married this summer in Des Moines. Administration job? In any case, as an insurance agent, he's more mobile than the two members paired in House 58...

House District 58

Registration: D 8461, R 4359, N 8119, total 20942, D+ 4102
Incumbents: Brian Moore, R-Zwingle and Lee Hein, R-Monticello

UPDATE June 29: Hein announced June 25 he'll be running in House 96. Hat tip: anonymous reader.

...two farmers who can't easily move. Two freshman Republicans who knocked off Democratic incumbents on Democratic turf. Two one-term wonders?

Some Dude gets elected sometimes, and Moore gets my vote for 2010 House Upset Of The Year. In June he had lost the primary for old Senate 13. The Democratic primary. A month later the GOP talked him into switching parties and getting into the house race against Tom Schueller, who had been an unopposed winner in 2008. In a race that was on almost no one's radar, Moore rode the wave for a 138 vote shock win. He's been much quieter his first session than other first-term upset winners like Kim Pearson and Glen Massie.

The old district was the most Democratic seat held by a Republican, with about the same 4000ish Democratic registration margin. But Moore loses the pieces of northern Clinton County and southern Dubuque where he got his winning margin (Schueller won Jackson County by about 250). Can Moore repeat that win as a known quantity in a presidential year?

Hein's win was less fluky than Moore's. Republicans and Farm Bureau had targeted this seat and Hein, a Monticello school board member, was considered a main-chance contender, not an afterthought like Moore. Hein beat Democrat Ray Zirkelbach, who knocked off Republican Gene Manternach in 2004. Zirkelbach missed two full legislative sessions on two different tours of military duty, and given the circumstances was unopposed in 2006 and won easily in 2008. But in the climate of 2010, Hein scored an 800 vote win in a district with a 1400 Democrat registration edge.

The old Zirkelbach-Hein district included all of Jones County and the southwest quadrant of rural Dubuque (Cascade, Epworth, Peosta and Farley). The Anamosa-Monticello core of Hein's old seat is the anchor of new 96. Moore, meanwhile, lives at the very edge of Jackson County and the district. My best guess is one of these guys makes a Senate run (if Hancock stays and 29 is on the ballot -- remember, if Hancock quits, Bowman holds over till 2014) and one of them stays in this seat. Or maybe they just primary it out. Either way, my bet is neither of them is back in the 2013 session.


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