Obama has commanding lead on Iowa electronic markets

Obama has commanding lead on Iowa electronic markets

Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets are, after the final debate, giving Barack Obama a commanding lead.

Thursday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at nearly 86 cents, meaning traders give the Democratic ticket a 86 percent chance of winning. John McCain's shares are selling for just under 15 cents. Those levels have been steady for the past week. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 58 cents Thursday morning, and McCain was selling at 46.6 cents.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

Extended Quote Of The Day

Extended Quote Of The Day

Some truths, or truisms, from Gail Collins at the New York Times:

At this point, they only care about the small chunk of undecided voters in swing states. That means a handful of people in Ohio who have managed to avoid noticing that Obama and McCain disagree on virtually every important issue facing the nation and continue to insist that they are torn between them.

Plus, of course, a couple of folks who got picked for a long-running television panel of undecided voters and don’t want to admit they’ve made up their minds because they’ll get thrown out.

This is one of the reasons why the last few weeks of a presidential campaign tend to be so awful. The candidates are gearing their remarks to people who have managed to completely ignore nearly two years of news about the 2008 elections.

Well, partial truths. It's also about ground game, about those people who have their minds made up but aren't plugged into the system, and about the hyper-energetic staffers and volunteers who are looking for them. (And Obama pwns McCain on that.)

But the informed pure independent, the model that the Objective Journalism Paradigm holds up as the American ideal, who actually "studies the candidates," is a rarity. Five percent tops.

Four years ago, ad a was voting on Day One and someone asked me "how can you have your mind made up already?" I replied, "How can I not?"

National GOP Pulls Plug on House Challengers

National GOP Pulls Plug on House Challengers

The Republican National Committee is pulling its money out of challenger races to shore up suddenly endangered incumbents, reports the Politico.

In 2006, veteran Republicans Gil Gutknecht in Minnesota, Jim Leach in Iowa and Jim Ryun in Kansas suddenly found themselves in tough reelection fights. By the time the party saw what was happening, it was already too late.

And thus it is this year, as the GOP moves resources.In Iowa, that's going to mean, if anything, Rep. Tom Latham, who has a race on his hands in the 4th District against Becky Greenwald. National Republicans don't have much invested in the other races, and the Latham-Greenwald race is the only one in the state that's on the national handicapper's lists (though still near the bottom.)

Democrat Rob Hubler is running a spirited race against Steve King, the other Republican incumbent, but the district lines strongly favor King.

In the 2nd District, Mariannette Miller-Meeks is an energetic and very visible opponent to Dave Loebsack, but she was never the pick of the RNC. They're the ones who recruited Peter Teahen, but the base rejected him in the primary (his donation to Democrat Julie Thomas in her 2002 race against Leach was probably the fatal blow. "Support ALL Republicans" is a big meme on the GOP side; unlike most lefties, I regularly read the Republican blogs.)

Of course, Loebsack wasn't on the Dem's national priority lists in 2006 until... well, until after he won. But he was swimming with the national tide, not against it. And the fact that Leach has enthusiastically and actively been campaigning for Obama doesn't help the Republican who's trying to win his seat back.

In the Des Moines-based 3rd District, Kim Schmett looks like an abandoned backup plan, positioned for a serious race if Ed Fallon had knocked off Leonard Boswell in the Democratic primary.

And in the 1st District, the race has descended to the point that Dave Hartsuch is calling John McCain too pro-gay. Seriously. Hartsuch has said he was not invited to Saturday's McCain rally in Davenport because he disagreed with McCain on the definition of traditional marriage. The Hartsuch campaign, and the Christopher Reed Senate campaign, seem to be focused now more on winning position in the ongoing internal battle within the Republican Party of Iowa than on their opponents.

Minister from McCain Rally 'Worst Person in The World'

Minister from McCain Rally 'Worst Person in The World'

The retired Quad Cities minister who delivered a controversial invocation at John McCain's Saturday rally in Davenport was "honored" Monday at the "Worst Person in The World" by MSNBC's Keith Olbermann.

Rev. Arnold Conrad, past pastor of the Grace Evangelical Free Church, won the award, a nightly feature on Olbermann's "Countdown" program, for his prayer:

"I would also pray, Lord, that your reputation is involved in all that happens between now and November, because there are millions of people around this world praying to their god - whether it's Hindu, Buddha, Allah - that his opponent wins, for a variety of reasons"

"And Lord, I pray that you would guard your own reputation, because they're going to think that their god is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and Election Day."

Conrad's invocation was delivered before McCain arrived.

"While we understand the important role that faith plays in informing the votes of Iowans, questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race about Barack Obama's judgment, policies and readiness to lead as commander in chief," a McCain spokesperson said later Saturday.

Reed, Hartsuch Left To Die At Triage Time

Are Reed and Hartsuch being "triaged out"?

Fans of the TV show "M*A*S*H" remember the mad rush of triage, as the buses rolled in and Ottumwa's own Radar O'Reilly yelled "Choppers!" At triage time, the wounded are divided into three groups. The soldiers with the superficial wounds are left to fend for themselves, while those who can't be saved are, in the cruel logic of allocating resources, left to die. The immediate attention goes to the middle group, who have serious wounds but can be saved.

Thus it is in politics. Both parties, in cold political Darwinism, leave the weak to die. It happened to me in my own legislative race 12 years ago. But at the moment, the grumbling appears louder on the Republican side.

Iowa's conservative blogosphere is grumbling that Christopher Reed, the long-shot challenger to Senator Tom Harkin, is being triaged out. The latest controversy centers around Reed's charges on Steve Deace's WHO radio show that that Caleb Hunter, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, is "actively telling Iowa voters not to support my candidacy because I have no chance to win." Reed also said Hunter was telling donors their efforts were better spent on trying to win back the Iowa House, where Democrats now hold a 53-47 edge.

"The only groups that I have seen attempting to support Reed at all are the Iowa Right to Life and Iowa Christian Alliance," writes the Iowa Defense Alliance blog, saying that the treatment of Reed reflects on the Republican State Convention's battle over National Committee seats. "These are the same people that claimed that (Iowa Right to Life head) Kim Lehman couldn’t be a national chairwoman because she wouldn’t support all Republicans. Now the shoe is on the other foot. These same people are now doing what they claimed that Lehman would do," Iowa Defense Alliance writes, calling RPI leadership "the Romney Party of Iowa."

"Reed's information is second or third hand," writes Republican state central committee member David Chung at the Hawkeye GOP blog. "I do not know exactly what was said or where but it sounds as if it lost something in the translation."

"(Former state Rep. George) Eichhorn was definitely the 'insider' candidate with more ties to party leadership, and I’m sure they weren’t too happy when their buddy got beat," write Nathan Greene at Battleground Iowa. "I don’t think Hunter was telling people not to vote for Reed, but he was certainly telling people he doesn’t think Reed has a chance, so people should send their money and their volunteer hours over to (House minority leader Christopher) Rants."

"It’s one thing if the party doesn’t have the money to financially support Reed," writes Greene. It is another thing altogether to actively attempt to sabotage his volunteer and fundraising efforts."

The multiple posts on the party's support, or lack thereof, have led to comment wars on the blogs. "You, Christopher, have raised less than $20,000 for your campaign for US SENATE - you need to just curl up and hide your pitiful, pitiful self -- you are an embarrassment," writes an anonymous 'Steve' on Battleground Iowa. "Go buy yourself another suit or haircut with your campaign funds," he adds, repeating an often-noted criticism of Reed.

Clayton County Republican Chair Gwen Eilers has gone so far as to send out a mass email urging Republicans to write in third-place primary candidate Steve Rathje instead of voting for Reed.

"It is no secret that RPI has limited funds this election cycle," writes Chung. "I supported the decision to target these funds to those races where they are likely to be affect the outcome. These chosen few are not chosen for their ideological purity. If it were so, Reed would be at the top of the list. But a dispassionate view, looking to target key races, the U.S. Senate race is not one of them."

Despite his near-invisibility, Reed is reaching as high as 40 percent in some polls, simply by being Not Tom Harkin. Yet, with presidential nominee John McCain in the state Saturday, Reed's name was not mentioned from the podium in Davenport, and no Reed signs were visible in the hall.

Instead, underscoring the Republican Party's apparant priority, state Rep. Steve Olson said, “I believe we can take over the Iowa House.” Also speaking were state Rep. Jamie Van Fossen and two legislative challengers: Ross Paustian, House 84 challenger against first-term Democrat Elesha Gayman, and state senate challenger Shawn Hamerlink, opposing Sen. Frank Wood.

And with the presidential candidate of his party in his home county, sitting state senator and 1st Congressional District challenger Dave Hartsuch did not speak. National handicappers all rank the 1st District as safe for freshman Democrat Bruce Braley.

McCain Davenport Liveblog

McCain Davenport Liveblog



Why is John McCain in Iowa when polls show him trailing? Will he again defend his opponent Barack Obama from personal attacks as he did Friday? What is his response to an Alaska legislative report charging his running mate Sarah Palin with abuse of power?

Iowa Independent's John Deeth was live at McCain's Saturday morning event in Davenport. The Republican nominee insists he'll win Iowa, but had no comment about the Palin report. Nearly half the speech was attacks on Obama, but those were mostly issue based, and while the audience was a-hootin' and a-hollerin, no explicit Obama attacks were overheard.

Before McCain's arrival, a minister delivering an invocation said, "There are plenty of people around the world who are praying to their god, be they Hindu, Buddah, or Allah, that (McCain's) opponent wins. I pray that you step forward and honor your own name."

9:52 and hello from Davenport. The event is scheduled to start at 10:30. Too bad it's not utdoors, two blocks away on the banks of the Mississippi on a perfect fall day. Instead we're in Davenport's River Center, where my best row counting and multiplication estimates seating for 1500 or so.

You can literally see Barack Obama's state from here (if not Russia). "We're living in darkness," says Mercer County. Illinois Republican vice chair Don Vickrey. But he says there is hope. Some of his fellow parishioners skipped out on a rare chance to see their candidate, choosing to paint yard signs instead.

So, with pundits rapidly moving Iowa into the Safe Democratic column, why is McCain making his third visit to the state? The pollsters "aren't talking to true Iowans," said Janice Levsen of Muscatine. "He needs to show us he cares about us, because we care about him."

But, even if that's the case, why a media market that's half in Obama's home state? Why not heavily GOP western Iowa? Ramon Perez of Davenport responds with his own question--"why go where you know you're going to win? To me, Iowa's always been a Republican state." Perez, a retired veteran from Davenport, is carrying a homemade sign calling for victory in Iraq and Afghanistan. Unlike the Cedar Rapids McCain-Palin event last months, with its strict no homemade signs rule, this event appears to encourage homemade signs. McCain is "not a quitter," says Vickrey.

Signs for the local candidates are also in evidence. None seem to say the word "Republican," though the candidate for sheriff has some small elephants. No signs for congressional candidate Dave Hartsuch in sight, though I saw some in yards on the way in. Hartsuch is considered a longshot against freshman incumbent Bruce Braley, so even the boost a congressional contender theory fails to explain Davenport. (Why not, say, a central Iowa stop with Tom Latham?) There are some hot legislative races in the QC, but that's way below the presidential nominee radar screen.

So, what about yesterday, when McCain (to his credit) rebuked his own supporters for personal attacks on Obama and called his rival "a good family man"? "McCain took a step above the rhetoric to show he's the better person," said Perez. "We want a clean fight, not a dirty fight."

But Mark Gardner of Colona, Ill. says Republicans are frustrated. "People want him to go after the real Obama." Is the campaign getting too personal? "Only if you're a Democrat," says a friend of Gardner's, who moves ahead in line before I get his name.

Gardner likes McCain on economic issues. Small business, rags to riches... we need those breaks," he says, adding that he trusts McCain on defense.

But when asked about the bailout bill, the cluster of people moving forward in line. One woman, who says she's undecided, just shakes her head. "I guess I didn't buy a fancy enough house," says one man.

This appears to be McCain's first scheduled event of the day, so we may get his first response to the ethics charges against his running mate Sarah Palin. The Alaska governor has already spoken, a little:

As the governor left her hotel around 8:30 this morning to board her idling campaign bus, NBC’s Matthew Berger asked, “Governor, did you abuse your power?”

Ms. Palin paused at the entrance to the bus and shouted back a response, which was picked up by a boom microphone: "No, and if you read the report you'll see that there was nothing unlawful or unethical about replacing a cabinet member. You gotta read the report, sir."

Droppin those closin consonants.

10:29. The security is tightening and the program is starting with the patriotic rituals that Republican events always include. The troops presenting the colors, it should be noted, are wearing red berets. This gives us a break from the music, which was generic country by one of the guys with a big hat. (I used to know country music, 20 or so years ago when I was a DJ.)

The invocation is interesting, as I hear keyboards going all around me:

"There are plenty of people around the world who are praying to their god, be they Hindu, Buddah, or Allah, that (McCain's) opponent wins. I pray that you step forward and honor your own name." Ends with "in Jesus' name."

Wow. McCain does not appear to have been here yet to catch that, but wow. The preacher's name appears to be a Pastor Conrad of the Evangelical Free Church.

10:39. State Rep. Steve Olson gets to speak-I believe he's unopposed. Says `06 was a rough year for GOP, but "I believe we can take over the Iowa House."

Next is Ross Paustian, House 84 challenger against Elesha Gayman who he doesn't name or attack; just a generic tax and spend set of remarks. We also get Jamie Van Fossen and Senate Challenger Shawn "the Hammer" Hamerlink. The Hammer, challenging Frank Wood, is high energy. He says McCain "and Palin" will be here soon. "And Palin?" we mutter at each other on Press Row. The consensus is Hamerlink mis-spoke, as my schedule shows Palin in Pennsylvania.

"We must elect people who do not come to your pockets to fix their problems." Thus far, no one has said Word One about a specific opponent, though Hamerlink does get in a dig at Bill and Hillary.

11:01 and, having run out of legislative candidates we've got a time-killing cheering contest going on. What about Dave Hartsuch? Doesn't an incumbent state senator and congressional candidate get some love? The speaking ends and we get loud dramatic fanfare music, like I'm watching movie credits. The national press corps is still not filing in. When they do get here, there's a picturesque backdrop -- hay bales and an antique John Deere -- for the national TV crews.

11:08 and the first trickle of national TV techs. Now the writers, already booted up and racing into the seats in front of me.

"Right Now" by Van Halen. Same stage song as Cedar Rapids, despite Sammy Hagar's disapproval. Does the family values crowd know the album title spells a dirty word?

OK, he's here 11:11.

"The political pundits have been wrong several times, we are going to win the state of Iowa." Three My Friends so far.

"Change and reform is coming to Iowa with John McCain and Sarah Palin." Praise for Palin but no comment on the report. My Friends = 5.

"The American People Are Angry," and Johns sounds that way too. "You're angry and I'm angry too, and when SP and I get to the WH we'll turn Washington upside down."

USA! chant foes up. My Friends = 6.

Talks about mortgage refinancing. "The funs aren't new but the priorities will be, for working families and homeowners."

"The status quo is not on the ballot, we need change. The question is which direction will we go?" (We Want John! chant)

"Which candidate's experience in life makes him a more reliable commander in chief for our troops. Who's ready to lead!"



Protester! Young woman hoisted up onto shoulders right in front of press, flashing peace signs. Drowned out by chants: USA, we want John, etc. Escorted out by cops, the young man still carrying the young woman on his shoulders.

McCain: "That's a perfect example of people who just don't get it." "I've had hundreds of town hall meetings, I always give people a chance to talk, I don't always enjoy it, but if there's anyone else, I'll be glad to talk."

He bashed the bear DNA (which he voted for) again and the Bridge to Nowhere (oh, just Google it) My Friends is up to about 15.

Spending cuts: "My friends, right now we need a hatchet AND a scalpel."

"I'll balance the federal budget by the end of my term in office." My TERM? My FIRST term or my TERM?



Obama bash time. "He never answers the serious and legitimate questions he's asked. He's even questioned my truthfulness. I don't need lessons in telling the truth, and if I did need help I wouldn't seek advice from a Chicago politician."

"I called for tighter restrictions on Fannie May and Freddie Mac; my opponent was silent and his Democratic allies did nothing."

Health care: "He will fine employers. That kills jobs, my friends. He has not said how big his fine will be. You deserve an answer and you sure didn't get it it Tues Night's debate."

Lots of scattered shouts from the audience, hard to make out individual words. Boos on taxes. "Half the income of small business in America would be taxed."



A national reporter in front of me is bored and surfing icanhascheezburger.com. "I'll cut the size of gov't and I'll get this country moving again." OM NOM NOM NOM.

Bashing earmarks and the planetarium projector. "The chairman of the planetarium pledged to raise $200,ooo for Obama's campaign." Two my friends in one paragraph - easily up over two dozen.

"You don't have to 'hope' things will change when you vote for me -- you KNOW that things will change."

Praise for the vets who are, you guessed it, My Friends. "I will bring our troops home with victory and honor and not defeat." Reuses the "Make sure my son's death was not in vain" bracelet line.

"I want to be president because I know I can inspire Americans to serve a cause greater than themselves."

Speech wraps at 11:39. Same exit music, "Life Is A Highway."

11:47. The nationals are starting to pack up while the camera scrum follows JMcC down the rope line. Crowd's about half gone.

So what news do we get out of this?

He was here in the first place, defying the polls.

No comment on the Palin report in his first post-report appearance.

Crowd still mad but no audible threats.

McCain's conciliatory stance may have been a one-time thing.

That invocation--though McCain wasn't here for that.

Calling it a day at 11:57, John Deeth reporting.

Postscript:

Full name of clergy is Rev. Arnold Conrad, past pastor of the Grace Evangelical Free Church. Full quote:

"I would also pray, Lord, that your reputation is involved in all that happens between now and November, because there are millions of people around this world praying to their god - whether it's Hindu, Buddha, Allah - that his opponent wins, for a variety of reasons," Conrad said.

"And Lord, I pray that you would guard your own reputation, because they're going to think that their god is bigger than you, if that happens. So I pray that you will step forward and honor your own name with all that happens between now and Election Day."

Response from Iowa McCain campaign: "While we understand the important role that faith plays in informing the votes of Iowans, questions about the religious background of the candidates only serve to distract from the real questions in this race about Barack Obama's judgment, policies and readiness to lead as commander in chief."

Met a couple from Jones County on the way out, carrying Hartsuch yard signs, and they commiserated that Hartsuch, and Senate candidate Chris Reed, didn't speak.

Other crowd estimates were 2,000 and 3,000. The press riser could have been pushed back a good 30 feet or so to hold more people.

Little Time for Talk in 2nd District Debate

Little Time for Talk in 2nd District Debate


Barth, Loebsack, Miller-Meeks, White

The four-candidate 2nd Congressional District debate seemed fairly congenial--but that may have been because the format left the candidates little time to engage one another. With a strictly enforced 45 seconds an answer, it was hard to stretch out.

"I'm running out of time, I'm just getting started," said Green candidate Wendy Barth as the red STOP card went up. "It's not fair," Democratic incumbent Dave Loebsack nodded in sympathy.

But Barth and independent Brian White were grateful to the Johnson County AARP, the debate sponsors, for including them with Loebsack and Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the Thursday afternoon forum. The equal treatment extended to the order of speaking and even to the moderator's repeated habit of skipping the fourth candidate as the questions rotated.

The questions leaned toward the senior-oriented, but the answers revolved around the relative effectiveness of the Congress Loebsack joined two years ago.

"I got tired of seeing Congress doing nothing but seeing who was the victor in a partisan fight," said Miller-Meeks, citing Social Security, health and energy policy.

Loebsack defended his record while agreeing with the premise. "I ran in 2006 because I was fed up with a system that was broken. I wanted to once again make government a positive force in people's lives," said the congressman. "I have worked tirelessly to provide for our troops and provide oversight to the Bush Administration's Iraq policies."

But the harshest criticism of partisanship came from White, who is premising his entire candidacy on breaking away from the two party system. "The answers are simple. The reason I'm running is nothing gets done," said White. "The first thing you do is get rid of everything in Washington including the interest groups." White, somewhat surprisingly, drew the most applause lines in the forum, as he returned again and again to his theme and called for term limits, getting rid of PACs, and ethics reform.

Barth described herself as a single issue candidate: "My single issue is sustainability," she said, adding that thousands of issues fall under that umbrella. "It means having a lifestyle that continues generation after generation. Our lifestyles have to change. We can embrace that change or deny change."

Barth launched the sharpest exchange of the debate as she attacked Loebsack for his vote on the financial bailout bill. "The biggest mistake you made was voting for that," she said while looking at Loebsack. "They want us middle class taxpayers to bail them out, " she added while running out of time.

"I'm disgusted. Both the Democrats and Republicans hands are dirty in this," said White to sustained applause.

"Those are the two toughest votes I've had to take," said Loebsack. "The downside of not doing anything, I feared, were worse." Loebsack said the second version of the bill included $4.6 billion, which he cosponsored with Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, for flood victims and wind tax credits.

"The risk has been passed on globally and we're paying the price for that," said Miller-Meeks. Asked about tax policy, the Ottumwa doctor said, "I advocate an optional flat tax and then we could go to further tax reform. Time is money," she said, in reference to the cost of tax preparation.

"We have to stop tax incentives for companies going overseas," says Loebsack, who said flat tax proposals hurt the middle class. Loebsack said the Bush tax cuts should not be extended. He also called for alternative minimum tax reform. "If we don't reform it, it'll catch the middle class."

"I am a huge flat tax supporter," said White. "No loopholes, no deductions, none of that. It's very simple."

"A progressive tax system is better," responded Barth. "There should be a Peace Tax so people can say 'I don't want any of my money going to the military,''' she said.

"Social Security funds should not be used in the general budget," said Miller-Meeks. "That's part of the reason we have a problem now. We need to have a Congress that lives within its means and not continue to rob the Social Security fund."

"President Bush pushed this idea of Social Security privatization after his re-election," said Loebsack, "and it was roundly rejected by the American people."

Loebsack said the initial Patriot Act went too far and he would have voted no. "I don't believe we should impinge too much on our civil liberties. It's got to be a balancing act."

Miller-Meeks said anti-terrorist issues that risk civil liberties should have timelines. "We need an active and a vigilant press because they hold officials feet to the fire, and they have an investigative arm."

"We have to protect civil liberties as a priority," said White. "We need to do it the same way the criminal system does -- with probable cause."

"There's never going to be 100 percent safety. We have to protect ourselves but can't be paranoid," said Barth.

2nd District candidates will have another forum on Oct. 21 -- or some of the candidates will. Only the major party nominees were invited to the KCRG-TV event. White urged Loebsack and Miller-Meeks to go to bat for his inclusion, while Barth pledged to liveblog her responses to the questions.