Iowa Electronic Markets etiketine sahip kayıtlar gösteriliyor. Tüm kayıtları göster
Iowa Electronic Markets etiketine sahip kayıtlar gösteriliyor. Tüm kayıtları göster

24 Kasım 2008 Pazartesi

Iowa Electronic Markets Within Half A Point

Iowa Electronic Markets Within Half A Point
The Iowa Electronic Markets got it right again:
With all the votes counted, the Iowa Electronic Markets predicted the final vote count in this year's presidential election to within a half percentage point.

Prices on the IEM's Vote Share Market predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.55 percent of the two-party presidential popular vote, and John McCain would receive 46.45.

After the ballots were counted, Obama received 53.2 percent of the vote, and McCain received 46.8 percent, leaving an average error per contract of only .3 percent.

The average absolute error by public opinion polls, meanwhile, was 1.2 percent.

30 Ekim 2008 Perşembe

Obama lead steady on Iowa Electronic Markets

Obama lead steady on Iowa Electronic Markets

Barack Obama continues to hold a steady lead on the Iowa Electronic Markets, with little movement since the final debate two weeks ago.

Thursday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at 85 cents, down less than a penny in the last two weeks. The 85 cent price means traders give the Democratic ticket an 85 percent chance of winning. Republican John McCain's shares are selling for 15.3 cents. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

Winner Take All market
Winner Take All market

On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 54.7 cents Thursday morning, and McCain was selling at 47 cents.

In other markets, traders overwhelmingly predict increased Democratic majorities in both the U.S. House and Senate, but believe that the Minnesota U.S. Senate race is getting closer. Democrat Al Franken has a narrow edge over GOP incumbent Norm Coleman.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

16 Ekim 2008 Perşembe

Obama has commanding lead on Iowa electronic markets

Obama has commanding lead on Iowa electronic markets

Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets are, after the final debate, giving Barack Obama a commanding lead.

Thursday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at nearly 86 cents, meaning traders give the Democratic ticket a 86 percent chance of winning. John McCain's shares are selling for just under 15 cents. Those levels have been steady for the past week. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 58 cents Thursday morning, and McCain was selling at 46.6 cents.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

7 Ekim 2008 Salı

Obama's Stock Keeps Rising on Iowa Electronic Markets

Obama's Stock Keeps Rising on Iowa Electronic Markets

The Dow Jones may be dropping, but one stock that keeps rising is Barack Obama on the Iowa Electronic Markets.

Tuesday morning, Obama shares on the Winner Take All market were selling at 77 cents, meaning traders give the Democratic ticket a 77 percent chance of winning. That's up 10 cents since the first presidential debate, and more than 20 cents in the last month. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

On the Vote Share market, which predicts percentage of the popular vote and pays a penny a percent, Obama was selling at 54.3 cents Tuesday morning, and Republican John McCain was selling at 47.4 cents.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

29 Eylül 2008 Pazartesi

McCain Drops in Iowa Electronic Markets Post-Debate

McCain Drops in Iowa Electronic Markets Post-Debate

John McCain's political stock dropped--literally--after Friday's debate with Barack Obama, or so investors on the Iowa Electronic Markets think.

At 9 a.m. Monday, McCain's shares were trading for 32 cents on the IEM's Winner Take All presidential market, meaning traders give the McCain-Palin ticket only 32 percent chance of winning. On Friday, before the debate, McCain was trading at 37 cents.

Shares for the Democratic Obama-Biden ticket were at 67 cents Monday, up from 62 cents Friday. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

In the Vote Share market, which pays a penny per percentage point, McCain was selling for 47.3 cents this morning, which means investors believe he will receive 47.3 percent of the two-party popular vote in November. Obama was selling for 53.8 cents on the Vote Share market. Shares in the Vote Share market pay in proportion to the percentage.

5 Eylül 2008 Cuma

Iowa Electronic Markets steady after conventions

Iowa Electronic Markets steady after conventions

It's too soon for polls to reflect what bounce if any John McCain and Sarah Palin got out of the Republican National Convention, but traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) are mostly unmoved by the unprecedented back-to-back convention weeks.

At 9 a.m. Friday, Barack Obama's shares were trading for 58.5 cents on the IEM's Winner Take All presidential market, meaning traders give Obama and Joe Biden a 58.5 percent chance of winning. John McCain was trading for 41.9 cents. Before the two conventions, the market was at 60 cents for Obama and 40 cents for McCain. In the Winner Take All market, winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

In the Vote Share market, which pays a penny per percentage point, Obama was trading for 53.9 cents Friday, which means traders believe he will get 53.9 percent of the popular vote. Before the Democratic convention Obama was trading at 52.8 cents. McCain was down to 47.1 cents Friday, from the 49.5 percent he was trading at when the DNC started.

In other markets, traders predict an increase in Democratic control of both the U.S. Senate and House by a 90 percent margin. But in the one race-specific market, the Minnesota Senate race, traders expect Republican incumbent Norm Coleman to defeat Democratic challenger Al Franken.

26 Ağustos 2008 Salı

Iowa Electronic Markets Branching Out

Iowa Electronic Markets Branching Out

For the first time in their 20-year history of political trading, the Iowa Electronic Markets are branching out beyond presidential politics.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

The IEM has added three Congressional markets. In the first two, traders can buy and sell contracts that will predict whether the Democrats will gain seats in each of the Senate and House, maintain its current number of seats, or lose seats to the Republicans.

In the third market, traders can buy and sell contracts based on overall control of Congress: Democratic or Republican control of both houses or split control.

A fourth new market looks at Minnesota's U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and the Democratic challenger, comedian Al Franken.

The IEM has two presidential election markets: a winner-take-all market and a percentage market. The winner-take-all market predicts odds of victory. The vote share market predicts the margin of victory, and pays out based on that percentage; a 55 percent share yields 55 cents.

Recent trading in the winner-take-all market predicts an Obama victory is 60 percent likely. Trading has been very light in the vote share market, but the most recent trades indicate that the margin will be within two percent.

5 Haziran 2008 Perşembe

Obama Leading McCain in Iowa Electronic Markets

Obama Leading McCain in Iowa Electronic Markets

Presumptive Democratic nominee Barack Obama is widely favored to defeat John McCain by traders in the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), but the folks voting with their dollars expect the margin itself to be narrower.

The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.

The IEM has two general election markets: a winner-take-all market and a percentage market. The winner-take-all market predicts odds of victory.



Obama leads this market at 61.9 cents. That means traders give him a 62 percent chance of winning.

The vote share market predicts the margin of victory, and pays out based on that percentage; a 55 percent share yields 55 cents. Volume so far is low, but Obama was trading at 52.7 cents, predicting a 53 percent share of the popular vote.

14 Mayıs 2008 Çarşamba

No Change on Iowa Electronic Markets After WV

No Change on Iowa Electronic Markets After WV

Barack Obama's big lead in the Iowa Electronic Markets is virtually unchanged despite a big loss Tuesday in West Virginia.

At midnight, as Hillary Clinton rolled up a 67 percent to 26 percent win, Obama's IEM shares were trading at 89.9 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 90 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. That price has wavered less than a cent in the past week, and is settling into the 90 percent range typically seen on the IEM for presumptive nominees.



Hillary Clinton shares were trading for 7.1 cents, down from 8.9 cents at the end of Monday.

Obama has held the lead in the IEM Democratic nomination since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5. In the general election winner-take-all market, the Democrats hold a 58 percent to 42 percent lead over the Republican candidate.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

7 Mayıs 2008 Çarşamba

Obama Spikes on Iowa Electronic Markets

Obama Spikes on Iowa Electronic Markets

Barack Obama's big Tuesday win in North Carolina and narrow loss (but they're still counting) in Indiana has led to a price jump on the Iowa Electronic Markets.


As of 9:00 Wednesday morning, Obama shares were trading at 87 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 87 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. That's up from 72 cents at the end of the day Monday.

Hillary Clinton shares were trading for 9 cents, down from 26 cents at the end of Monday.

The dramatic price shifts began at 7:30 Tuesday night, when networks called North Carolina for Obama at the moment the polls closed.

Obama has held the lead in the IEM since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

21 Nisan 2008 Pazartesi

Obama Leads Iowa Electronic Markets

Obama Leads Iowa Electronic Markets on Pennsylvania Primary Eve

Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton in Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) trading on the eve of the Pennsylvania Democratic primary.

As of 9:00 Monday morning, Obama shares were trading at 75 cents, meaning traders give the Illinois senator a 75 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee. Clinton shares were going for 21 cents. Obama has held the lead since Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.



In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money. Nomination markets are winner-take-all; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

The winner-take-all general election market has the Democratic nominee, once there is one, leading presumptive Republican nominee John McCain, 54 cents to 45.5 cents.

31 Mart 2008 Pazartesi

McCain Narrows Gap in Iowa Electronic Markets

McCain Narrows Gap in Iowa Electronic Markets

John McCain is narrowing the gap against the Democratic nominee, whoever that may be, in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets.



The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988. In the winner-take-all general election market, the Republican contract (McCain isn't named) was trading at 47 cents, meaning investors think there is a 47 percent probability that the Republicans will win the popular vote. The Democratic contract still leads at 53.3 cents, but only a month ago the Democrats were leading by 57 cents to 35 cents.



In the primary election markets, McCain's price has stabilized in the mid-90s since his win in the Jan. 29 Florida primary. On the Democratic side, there has been some volatility, but Barack Obama has rarely dropped below 70 cents since Super Tuesday. On Monday morning, Obama was trading at 79 cents, with Hillary Clinton at 15.2 cents. The "rest of field" contract, which presumably at this point means a savior candidate coming to the rescue at a deadlocked convention, has slowly inched up to 4.2 cents.

20 Şubat 2008 Çarşamba

Iowa Electronic Markets: Obama at New High

Iowa Electronic Markets: Obama at New High

Following last night's Wisconsin win, Barack Obama has jumped to a new high price for a Democratic candidate in the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), topping Hillary Clinton's peak price.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money.  As of midnight, Obama shares were trading at 78.7 cents, meaning traders think it's about 79 percent likely he'll be the nominee. That tops Clinton's peak of 74.6 cents on October 22.




Clinton shares dropped to 20.3 cents last night. Withdrawn candidate John Edwards and the generic "rest of field" were trading at less than one cent.





In the Republican market, John McCain has settled into the pattern seen by presumptive nominees like John Kerry in 2004. His price has stabilized at just above 94 cents since last week's wins in the Potomac states.

The nomination markets are winner take all.  Shares for the nominee pay a dollar, and shares for other candidates are worthless. The IEM's general election market, which predicts vote share and pays out proportionally at a penny a percent, is currently anticipating a Democratic win of 51 percent to 47.5 percent.

5 Şubat 2008 Salı

Iowa Electronic Markets Show Close Dem Race on Super Tuesday

Iowa Electronic Markets Show Close Dem Race on Super Tuesday

The Iowa Electronic Markets are showing a tight battle for the Democratic nomination on Super Tuesday.  On the Republican side, traders have all but settled on John McCain as the presumptive nominee.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money.  The nomination markets are winner take all.  Shares for the winner pay a dollar, and shares for other candidates are worthless.The IEM has been known for its accuracy in predicting general election outcomes, where shares pay based on the percentage of the vote.




As of 8 a.m. Tuesday, Hillary Clinton led the Democratic market with a contract price of 52 cents, which means traders think she has a 52 percent shot at the nomination.  Barack Obama is trading at 46.9 cents.  Withdrawn candidate John Edwards and the generic "rest of field" were less than one cent.

Clinton has led the market almost continuously since it was launched in March 2007, except for a lead-swapping few early weeks and the five days between Obama's Iowa caucus win and Clinton's New Hampshire primary victory.





John McCain has shot to a prohibitive lead since his Jan. 29 win in Florida.  McCain was trading at 88.8 cents Tuesday morning, with Mitt Romney far behind at 11.7 cents.  Penny gumballs were more expensive than Mike Huckabee shares.  The market does not sell individual Ron Paul shares, but "rest of field" was also below one cent.

8 Ocak 2008 Salı

Obama takes Iowa Electronic Markets lead

Obama takes Iowa Electronic Markets lead

UPDATE: Oops. As you see, New Hampshire shuffled the market yet again...

Barack Obama has taken a commanding lead in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) following his caucus win.  The Republican picture is more volatile, but John McCain is commanidng top dollar.

In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates using their own, real money.  The IEM has been known for its accuracy in predicting general election outcomes.



Obama was trading at 70.1 cents at midnight, just as the returns from Dixville Notch and Hart's Location showed him winning the two tiny New Hampshire hamlets that traditionally vote at midnight on election day.  That price is up from only 24 cents  a week ago.

Hillary Clinton had held the Democratic market lead almost continuously since the market launched last March, peaking at 73.6 cents Oct. 17.  A week ago Clinton was still a prohibitive favorite at 63.3 cents, but as of midnight her stock had dropped to 23.1 cents.



This echoes market behavior after the 2004 caucuses, when Howard Dean's stock plummeted after the third place finish and that speech, while John Kerry's price quickly shot up to the 90 cent zone.  (Winning shares pay a dollar, while losing shared have roughly the value of the mark in Weimar Germany.)



Five different Republican stocks -- Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, Mitt Romney, John McCain, and the generic "rest of field" -- have led the Republican market.  Despite his minimal Iowa effort, the Survivor island dynamic of the GOP race had McCain in a tie with Romney just before the caucuses, and McCain took lead on caucus night.

4 Ocak 2008 Cuma

The Night's Biggest Number: Democratic Turnout

The Night's Biggest Number: Democratic Turnout

In a night full of numbers, the most important statistic is two to one – Democratic turnout over Republican turnout. In all honesty, I though the Democrats saturated the electorate in 2004 and got out every single person who could potentially caucus. I was wrong by about half, as Democratic turnout nearly doubled to almost 240,000. The Republicans, however, only increased by about a third from eight years ago.

Those margins will be reflected in voter registration statistics soon, and the fresh lists of new caucus goers give the Democrats an organizational advantage going into the fall. Most of all, it’s a strong sign that Democrats are enthusiastic about their candidate and their chances.

Here’s some other numbers that tell part of tonight’s story:

57% - Percentage of Democrats under 30 who caucused for Obama. Hillary Clinton won 45% of those over 65.

47 cents – Obama’s midnight, post-results price on the Iowa Electronic Markets, indicating that investors give him a 47 percent chance at the nomination. That’s up from 28 cents yesterday. Clinton dropped from 59 cents to 51. John McCain is leading the Republican field at 30 cents.

9% - Victory margin for Mike Huckabee, much more than expected. The flurry of negative anonymous emails and goofy revelations seemed only to strengthen the resolve of Huckabee’s supporters, and the late, newspaper endorsement driven resurgence of John McCain helped widen the gap.

3.5% - Rudy Giuliani’s sixth place showing. We all knew he wasn’t trying hard, but 3.5% makes Fred Thompson look like the Hardest Working Man In Show Business. Rudy was closer to no-show Duncan Hunter than to fifth place Ron Paul.

50:50 – Odds that Fred Thompson will quit because he doesn’t feel like doing the New Hampshire debate.

1 – Chris Dodd delegate in the whole state, in Pottawatamie County.

Minus two – Goodbye, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden. Catching a brief glimpse of the Biden announcement, it seemed Jill Biden was more saddened by the end than the candidate. He’s up for re-election in Delaware this fall. Daily Kos was praising Dodd earlier in the day and suggesting he’d make a good replacement for Senate leader Harry Reid. Silence from Team Richardson tonight.

0 - Hillary Clinton delegates in Iowa City Precincts 3, 5, 11, 19, 20 and 21.  Clinton was non-viable in the two University of Iowa dorm precincts (3 and 5), student-dominated 11, 19, and 20, and student-influenced 21.  The "students shouldn't caucus" flap may not have helped.  Turnout was down from in Precinct 5 from 320 in 2004 to 134 this year, but University Democrats chair Atul Nakhasi was pleased with the mid- break attendance.  In Precinct 3, 208 showed up, "a little less but not much" than 2004, said Nick Johnson, the law professor who's long chaired his precinct.

1 – effective ad as John Edwards carried Jasper County. He spoke often of the Maytag plant closing in Newton, and his final ad consisted almost entirely of a laid off Maytag worker speaking, with Edwards saying nothing more than the legal disclaimer. Edwards had another strong cluster of support in southern Iowa, while Clinton won the western border and a chunk of north central Iowa, and Obama took eastern and most of Central Iowa.

20 years - The most interesting pronouncement I heard on caucus night. "20 years ago was when this all began," said an Obama supporter who was a veteran of the 1988 Jesse Jackson campaign. The rap on the Iowa caucuses has always been that Iowa is “not diverse enough,” code for “95% white.” But maybe, just as overwhelmingly Protestant West Virginia gave Catholic John Kennedy a boost in 1960, Iowa Democrats have listened to those back of the hall murmers -- “I just don’t know if people are ready” – and answered them tonight.

3 Ocak 2008 Perşembe

Iowa Electronic Markets Show Tight GOP Race, Solid Clinton Lead

Iowa Electronic Markets Show Tight GOP Race, Solid Clinton Lead

Three Republican candidates are tightly bunched in trading on the Iowa Electronic Markets, where people place real money on the line to predict the nomination outcome.



As of 9 a.m. Caucus Day, Mitt Romney led the Republican market with a 26.4 cent price (or a 26.4% chance of winning the nomination.)  A resurgent John McCain recently moved into second place at 25.1 cents as of 9 a.m.  He traded for as little as 8 cents as recently as Dec. 7.

Rudy Giuliani, who led the field most of the way,has dropped to 23 cents. The market predicts likelihood of winning the nomination, not Iowa caucus percentage.



On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic market at 57.5 cents. Barack Obama is at 30.8 cents and John Edwards is third at 10.6 cents.

Prices on both sides are likely to shift rapidly overnight as the caucus results are reported. The nominations are a winner take all market; winning shares pay a dollar and losing shares are worthless.

5 Aralık 2007 Çarşamba

Huckabee Bought and Paid For -- on Iowa Electronic Markets

Huckabee Bought and Paid For -- on Iowa Electronic Markets

Mike Huckabee is passing another benchmark of legitimacy: as of noon Wednesday he'll be traded on the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM).

The IEM is one place where politicians literally are bought and paid for. In the University of Iowa business school project, traders buy and sell contracts on political candidates (not the kind of contract John Gotti tried to put on Rudy Giuliani). Traders use their own, real money (not Ron Paul Liberty Dollars) and for more than 15 years, the IEM has been known for its accuracy in predicting general election outcomes.

But unlike general election contracts, in which the payout is based on a share of the vote, the nomination markets are winner take all. Shares for the winner pay a dollar, and shares for other candidates are worthless.

Iowa Electronic Markets director Joyce Berg says that all candidates aren't included from the beginning, as shares that are selling for close to zero don't trade much and just clutter the process. "We start with named candidates that we think traders will think of as viable candidates," she said, "and then we include a contract called Rest Of Field which literally means everybody else."




"We've been watching our Rest Of Field price in the Republican national convention market," said Berg, "and it's been above 15 cents for a couple weeks and above 20 cents for the last couple of days. When that happens, we look around to see who might be in that Rest Of Field contract that we should separate out, and this time it looked like it might be Huckabee."

The Rest Of Field climb coincides with recent positive polls and increased media attention for the former Arkansas governor, including Huckabee's first place showing in last weekend's Des Moines Register Iowa Poll.

"Contract prices are an assessment of who's going to win the nomination, they're going to be a probability," said Berg. "A price of 30 cents mean our traders think there's roughly a one third chance that candidate will be the nominee."

The last time a candidate was added was in June, when Fred Thompson started trading.

Republican trading has been volatile, though Berg says GOP volume is only slightly higher than Democratic trading. While Rudy Giuliani has been the top priced contract most of the way, Rest Of Field and Thompson have both led for extended stretches. John McCain was briefly a leader in March, and Mitt Romney had the top price after his Iowa Straw Poll win in August.

"The spikes will follow news, and not even in the way a newspaper would define it," said Berg. "Generally the debates don't have an effect on the market. Our interpretation is that the candidates at the debates aren't really saying anything new. But if something happens, things that people didn't know before but know now and think will effect the likelihood of nomination, then you see prices change."

Berg says it's difficult to directly assess the accuracy of a nomination probability market. "We judge our accuracy on those vote share markets, because every time there's a (general) election, there's a vote share I can compare it to," she said. "With these probability markets, it takes a lot of data to say whether they're accurate or not. We've got other markets that are these zero-one markets, and they seem to be calibrated right. That, together with our data from the vote share markets, makes us pretty confident."

But Berg notes the market isn't predictive of future events. "In 2004, you saw the caucus results have a big impact on the market for Howard Dean," she said.




Looking at the Democratic graph, showing Hillary Clinton trading at about 66 cents and leading since April, Berg said, "In 2004, this is exactly the way the graph looked for Howard Dean." Dean fell from a high of 74.9 cents on Dec. 13, 2003, to just 51 cents the night before the caucuses. By the end of caucus night Dean had dropped to 35 cents.

20 Temmuz 2007 Cuma

Rudy Giuliani: Asked About HIV, Answers With 9/11

Rudy Giuliani: Asked About HIV, He Answers With 9/11



Rudy Giuliani gets Iowa punctuality. In fact, he may be the first presidential candidate in years to show up early at a caucus campaign stop. Razzed by the Des Moines Register for running late in his last Iowa trip, the former New York mayor arrived 10 minutes before a scheduled 2:30 Thursday speech at the Spring House, a historic restaurant built on a natural artesian spring in Cedar Rapids.

The bulk of Giuliani’s relatively brief visit – 55 minutes from arrival to departure -- was devoted to one on one conversations and autographs. While the event was billed as focusing on energy independence, the crowd of 60 seated patrons and as many more standing folks was more interested in health care.

Loud Muzak drowned out the brief opening remarks of Paul Pate, a former Cedar Rapids mayor who also served in the Legislature and as secretary of state. Though the music clicked off early during Giuliani’s speech, the lack of a microphone made it hard to hear his message.

After about 10 minutes of prepared remarks, Giuliani began taking questions. Asked about increasing federal support for HIV medications, Giuliani discussed what he considers appropriate federal responsibility in health care. “I don’t want to promise you the federal government will take over the role,” he said, drawing applause and shouts of “all right." Then, in some interesting twists, he turned the HIV question into a 9/11 answer:
“My general experience has been that the federal government works best when it helps and assists and encourages and sets guidelines… on a state-by-state, locality-by-locality basis. It’s no different from the way I look at homeland security. Maybe having been mayor of the city, I know that your first defense against terrorist attack is that local police station, or that local firehouse.”

Giuliani has focused on national security issues in his campaign and said the U.S. should be on the offense against terrorism, and use tactics that “aren’t illegal but are aggressive” including the Patriot Act and electronic surveillance. “If a Democrat is elected we’ll go back to defense on terrorism – they don’t face the threat realistically,” he said. “They’ve had three debates, and none of the Democrats has said the words ‘Islamic terrorist.’ They’re in denial, and we need a president who’s a realist.”

“I’m good at getting things done,” Giuliani said, citing his record as mayor and as a U.S. attorney prosecuting mobsters in New York. “I could tell you good stories,” he said, but to this writer's great disappointment we heard no tales of busting Big Paul Castellano and John Gotti. Instead he told us, “I took over the crime capital of the United States and made it the welfare-to-work capital.”

Energy independence is a way to defeat the terrorists, Giuliani said, citing the dangers of a nuclear Iran. He said it’s important to keep a military option against Iran, but we can also win with energy independence. Giuliani called for a broad mix of resources. “I support all the technologies that give us energy within our own control,” with control meaning within the U.S. or with “reliable friends” such as Canada and Mexico.

He cited Brazil’s success with ethanol and joined other Republican candidates including Mitt Romney and John McCain in noting France’s reliance on nuclear power. He rattled off many other sources –- wind, clean coal and domestic oil (without specifying the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge). “There’s no one magic solution. There are, however, a number of solutions that if you support them and push them, each one of them can contribute some part.” Giuliani said this mix of energy changes would also address global warming “in a sensible, calm way and not in a hysterical way.”

Giuliani’s health-care plan is firmly based in the private sector. He proposes a $15,000 tax exemption for individual health insurance. “If you can find it cheaper, you can keep the difference.” He said with 50 million to 100 million Americans participating, this would create a marketplace for affordable individual plans: “Lots of people would buy private health insurance if it was as attractive as employer plans.” All plans would have to have some co-payment, to encourage people to make choices about their care.

In an extended analogy, Giuliani likened the cost of health care to the price of TVs in the early 1950s -– prices were high because the marketplace was small. With a larger marketplace prices of TVs have gone down and quality has improved with advancing technology. “It happened because there was a free market,” he said. His analogy missed some realities – you won’t die if you can’t get a plasma TV, but you might die if you can’t get to the doctor.

But Giuliani mocked the idea of mandated coverage: “If the government had said, everybody has to get a TV, and we’ll help you pay for one if you can’t afford it, what would have happened to the price of TVs? When you promise these simplistic results you get disaster, like welfare.”

Giuliani also said a promise of universal health care was misguided:
“We don’t want socialized medicine. Maybe you should go see 'Sicko,' see if you agree with Michael Moore that we should have the Cuban health care system. That’s where the Democrats are taking us… All the places that have government-run health care, it’s inferior to us. We’ve got to preserve our private system. People will have to earn some of that access. Let’s not become a nanny state. You don’t help somebody when you make them dependent. You make it within their realm to do it, but give them a chance to earn it. The system gets destroyed when you start making big promises.”

The bird-doggers from Iowans for Sensible Priorities got in their question about cutting military spending. Giuliani responded with a prompt no: “It’s already been done. Clinton cut our military budget by enormous amounts in the 1990s, and it left us in a position where we can’t face the dangers we’re facing right now.” He said he would look for wasteful spending in the military, but would instead reinvest that in increased troop strength and newer technology. Arguing that other parts of the budget could be cut to deal with energy independence, Giuliani said (in seeming contradiction to his approach to health care) that “the market for energy is not a free market” because OPEC and other forces are involved.

A virtually inaudible last question, later rumored to have been about Darfur, prompted Giuliani to discuss the ineffectiveness of the United Nations in dealing with major world crises “since at least the Cuban Missile Crisis.”

Attendee Dave Miller left the event undecided – he’s holding out hope that Newt Gingrich will run – but impressed with Giuliani. “I love his aggressiveness and ability to say yes or know and not beat around the bush,” Miller said. Speaking of Bush, Miller is not fond of the incumbent: “The biggest thing to me is health care and we haven’t heard about it in the whole Bush administration.” He’s not so keen on Congress either. “They had that all-nighter on the war, they’re always talking about immigration, but here we have innocent people talking about not having health care.”

Missed opportunities: Giuliani missed out on a plate of the Spring House’s famous “chilighetti,” thick chili served over spaghetti. And the Republican crowd might have appreciated a reference to the sign above the artesian well, noting that the Spring House is “no longer allowed to serve this water because of recent state ecology laws. The management is indeed sorry to have to let such a beautiful natural resource go to waste.”

5 Haziran 2007 Salı

Republican Debate Liveblog

Republican Debate: Couch Potato Liveblog

This was live at Iowa Independent and in a funky embedded window here. Best technical way I could come up with to liveblog on two sites at once.


The scene in the news room as couch potato liveblogging got underway

8:44 and signing off; The shadow of Fred Thompson was not as long as I had expected. Dem Paul Begala predictably predicts that this Debate is good for Dems; all candidates except Paul essentially back administration on war, that means Dems win. Thanks for tuning in, let's do this again real soon sometime.

8:17 and second sound bite to Romney on immigration. Now he's with Larry King. King asks about Fred Thompson, Alberto G. Larry throws him a variation of "why are you running," Mitt says "I can build a good team." Larry: "Are you getting tired of the Mormon question?" (Asking it yet again in the process.) Mitt says it doesn't matter. Larry signs off with "the hat is firmly in the ring," which seems silly considering that he just participated in the debate and all.

Ron Paul is a better gadfly that Mike Gravel. All I remember about Duncan Hunter is that he twice mentioned that his son enlisted.

Third sound bite: McCain on why we have to stay in Iraq. Mike Murphy says the war hurts McCain less than immigration does. Arianna notes that Brownback's partition is much like Biden's -- not sure Biden's calling for actual separate states, though. Would have to check that.

8:12 GOP pundit Mike Murphy says frontrunners do well, Tommy Thompson had a good health care answer. Arianna Huffington says we're on McCain's turf and NH doesn't care much about immigration. Jeffrey Toobin agrees with me that Huckabee sounded good. "I didn't understand some of what Romney said, frankly incomprehensible." No one has yet mentioned Tancredo calling for an end to legal immigration. The first replay goes to Huckabee.

8:06 Blitzer calls Brownback's three-part Iraq partition plan a "nuance" when in fact it's a major proposal. Notes massive Dem-GOP splits on gays in military, health care.

Larry King has Rudy. Tosses him softballs: is it tough running as an ex-mayor? Gee, didn't you attack the Democrats a lot? (Which gives him a chance to do it more). Isn't Iraq a big deal? Can the Yankees still win? (That’s not a joke; it's an actual question.)

8:00. Game over. The pundits are getting A-listers early -- Rudy, Mitt, McCain. Unlike Dems, who settled for surrogates and second tier.

The shocking statement to me was Tancredo's call for an end to legal immigration. Standout moment to me was Huckabee very sincerely talking about anti-choice as part of a whole-life framework and sounding as sincere as any seamless garment liberal. Brownback tried it but he couldn't pull it off, he sidetracked to attack Rudy -- then crashed when he said, "I'll support him anyway if nominated." That's my big surprise -- Huckabee sounded good, but has no traction.

Here's McCain. "Wish we could get more into details of immigration bill." Wasn’t time for me to rebut everything. "Amnesty means forgiveness, and they call anything short of deportation amnesty. This bill is very tough." People want this solved and we have to work bipartisan.

7:54 State legislator ask how to bring back moderates.

Gilmore: Conservatism still stands for all people. It's about empowering people and values.

Hunter asked about AHnold. Should GOP do same, be more moderate? Hunter: NO. Romney and Giuliani hate guns, McCain luuuvs Ted Kennedy. "We need to move away from Kennedy wing of GOP."

Romney: The model is Ronald Reagan. Strong Military, Economy, Family Values. Optimism.

Rudy: "Nominate me." On offense against terror, (Dems Dems Dems) offense on economy.

McCain: "Protect the family." Fight extremism. Good vs. evil.

7:50 What does it mean to be an American.

Tancredo: "Cut your ties with the past." Stop all legal immigration, enough is enough, and start assimilating people. Until we don't have to press 1 for English anymore.

Huckabee: I disagree. We should welcome legal immigration, and we need a secure border. A sane sensible system.

Rudy: I'm uncomfortable with Tancredo's idea. Lincoln, who fought know-nothings (ooh!): "how much do you believe in freedom?" If we lose that, we lose what has made America what it is?

McCain: Tancredo beyond my ream of thinking: Being American is about beliefs. Statue of liberty still the idea -- legal, of course...

7:44 How does your position differ from Bush?

McCain: "Spending spending spending spending." That's verbatim, four times. And corruption. And earmarks. And spending.

Lightning round: Rudy -- accountability in DC. "Republicans became Democrats." Romney: "We're a party of the future." The vision thing. Brownback: Spending, hope and ideas. Cancer research. Tommy Thompson: We didn't come up with new ideas, be real conservatives. Tancredo: Bush ran as conservative, governed as liberal. Paul: Bush changed his tune on foreign policy. Gilmore: Principle. And immigration bill is bad, so is spending. And Hillary is wrong on tax cuts. Wants to get it all in. Hunter: Did I mention my son was in the war? Huckabee: Taxation, regulation, immigration, litigation, communication. Congratulations. All we are saying is give me a chance.

7:39. To Romney. If you support English, why do you have Spanish ads?

Romney tries to split immigrant vs. illegal, doesn't directly say. "We are the party of the future" long discussion, Wolf cuts off.

Tancredo, would you advertise in Spanish? No. Preserving English is the glue that holds us together.

McCain: "Muchas Gracias." Gets a few laughs, probably not as many as he hoped. The special path to citizenship is especially hard. Spanish culture has enriched my state. Read the Vietnam wall, see all the Hispanic names. These are God's children and enrich our nation.

7:33 Professor asks what's the most pressing moral issue?

Huckabee: Sanctity of life. All life, not just during pregnancy. Includes elder abuse, homelessness, and human expendability. Compare that to suicide bombers. "They celebrate death, we celebrate life." That was very eloquent for that niche, a stop typing and watch moment.

Rudy: Talks of freedoms and sharing freedom with the rest of world.

Ron Paul: The acceptance of preemptive war. Not part of the American tradition. Iran has done nothing to us, is no threat to national security. We can't change world by force (applause)

Brownback: Life life life. We can't nominate someone not pro-life. But when asked would back Rudy.



7:29 blogger asks about single payer. HA!

Tommy Thompson says this is first health care talk in two debates, talks wellness and prevention. Tobacco and obesity. Manage care to reduce costs, electronic records. Talking fast to take advantage of a rare chance, some applause.

Romney asked about Mass. program ("worked with Ted Kennedy" probably not a hit...) Romney: Mass plan was to save small business, was not government taken over. Everyone in Mass. covered with private insurance, personal responsibility. Uses the socialized medicine line. "They just talk about it, I actually tackled this issue."

7:25 Prescription drugs (first health care of night)

Rudy frames it as a free market thing, gets applause. Calls Democrats socialized medicine in that general election frame again. The delete key ate the better version.

Huckabee says drug prices in part driven by drug R&D. We need to sell health insurance across state lines.

7:23 Attorney asks if conservative platform can include conservation?

Gilmore: it comes down to energy independence and related national security. He wants to work immigration in too but can't quite.

Tancredo: Teddy Roosevelt showed it can work, do it through conservative principles. You can make conservation profitable.

7:19 Soldier and wife: how do we get an Iraqi gov't in place?

Paul: We've had four years, it hasn't worked. Their biggest incentive is for us to leave. We can't enforce our goodness with force. (applause, not huge)

Rudy: Your sacrifice is why we're safe. If we get Iraq right we're safer. We overthrew Saddam very effectively, but we didn’t make their existence orderly. We should measure economy, schools, etc. on orderly society. Are we going to report the positives? (big applause)

7:14 and Blitzer is back with the citizen questions. First is a sister of a killed soldier. What would you do to get this to where we can "safely bring them home."

Duncan Hunter gets it and the "thank you for his service" gets big applause and a second one for Duncan Hunter Jr. enlisting. The answer: moving Iraqi troops in to replace US (Vietnamization?)

Brownback: it's not about leaving, it's about getting to a point where we can turn it over. Returns to his three-state solution. This administration has no political solution.

McCain: This war was badly mismanaged for a long time. We have a strategy that can succeed. If we fail it becomes a center for terrorism.

7:08 the pundits pundit. Overall more applause than in the Dem debate. The pundits are seeing no knockout punches. The most interesting moment to me was the mixture of cheers and catcalls on McCain's immigration answers. Rudy was debating the Dems say the pundits. Huckabee is getting blown off, says me.

More technical difficulties than Sunday night. Part of that was a thunderstorm in Manchester.

Gilmore and Hunter seem generic, Romney gets non-specific and evasive sometimes. There's more dog-whistle politics her -- such as the drug case that Duncan Hunter brought up; some border agents who got prison sentences and appear to be a cause celebre on the right. I'll have to look that up because I never heard of it.

7:00 to T Thompson: How would you use Bush 43? "I certainly wouldn't send him to the UN." some kind of motivational speaker, it sounds like.

Brownback: I'd ask him. I think he'd step out of limelight. He can fundraise if there's another tsunami. B Clinton has done too much on policy, should defer more.

Tancredo: I'm so disappointed in Bush... I'd tell him to go away (applause)

to Huckabee: what's happened to the GOP? "We didn't do what we were hired to do. We did the opposite -- people fired us. We deserved to get beat." Katrina, corruption, details of war, indifference to illegal immigrations. Answers the immigration question and gets applause.

Hunter -- should Bush pardon Scooter? Hunter: look at the transcript, mentions a drug case I don't know and gets applause (must be a big deal in GOP circles). Bring back Reagan Dems.

Pardon Scooter? Mostly nos. McCain discusses, Rudy: sentence was out of line. Romney: I didn't pardon anyone but I'd study this. Brownback gives a yes. T Thompson brings up Monica Lewinsky... I missed some stuff but they were getting kind of Lightning Round on me there.

That's the end of part 1.

6:55 to Paul: gays in military? Paul: Don't ask is OK. Problem is seeing people in groups, our rights are as individuals. Look at individual disruptive behavior. (applause)

Huckabee: It's already covered by military code. Objects to not being asked about immigration. (Ron Paul's out clocking him)

To Rudy: Language experts expelled for being gay. Rudy: Colin Powell said Don't Ask is good. Wrong time to change the policy.

Romney: you backed gays in military in `94. Mitt: Don't Ask is working, not time to change, like Rudy said like Rudy said. Talk about bigger issues.

McCain: I'm proud of the military (biggest applause of night). Rely in the military leadership, so it’s a mistake to change, the policy is working.

Should gays be allowed to openly serve? No hands.

6:49 to Rudy, global warming. Rudy: human action contributes to global warming. We should support all energy alternatives, Apollo Program (bipartisan).

To Romney -is GOP too close to Oil? Romney: Big Oil should invest profits in refineries. The $ is also being made in the courtiers that have oil: Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.. so we need independence. (mentions list including nuke power)

McCain: nuclear power at some length and other alternate sources. Mentions ethanol at end.

To Paul: tax subsidies to oil? Paul: The profit is OK if legitimately earned, but I object to the subsidies. Need to discuss foreign policy. We did we overthrow Mossadeq in `53? OIL. We go to war for oil.

Gilmore: Look to all sources, mentions nuclear twice. Kyoto fatally flawed, was transferring $ to Russia for nothing. China and India need to be involved.

6:43 to Huckabee -- evolution? Mike: Rejects premise but answers with Genesis 1:1. Question in first debate was simplistic. Huckabee's the neglected one thus far in the debate... I believe in God about three times. Wolf: the specific question is literal bible. Huckabee "I wasn’t there." Gets applause for overall answer.

Brownback: Faith Seeking Reason. We're created in image of God for a purpose. We've put faith and science at odds with each other, that's wrong. (applause)

McCain: teach creationism? McCain: up to school districts. I admire Huckabee's description.

To Romney: You're a Mormon. Open ended. Romney: Cites JFK. "I'm an American running for president." Cites a litany of traditional Christian beliefs. I won't distance myself from my faith.

Paul: 1st Amendment. Should be local people determining this, don't need more laws determining this. That's the magnificence of Constitution.

6:38 to Gilmore: Some Rudy McRomney chuckles. Is Fred T. a conservative? Gilmore: We don't know what he is. Let's see. I'm a 40-year conservative battler. Let's let everyone stand on credentials.

Tommy -- do we need another Thompson? Tommy parries the joke. No one's cut taxes as much as I have, I'm the reliable conservative.

To Rudy -- choice stance compared to Pontius Pilate. Sound cuts out at critical moment, to much mirth. Rudy: I respect religion, but in public life I have to do what's right for country. Gov't should not enforce that moral decision.

To Mitt: Are you a flip flopper? Romney presents laundry list of conservative issues.

631 -- to Hunter: what if the illegals leave, who does jobs? Hunter: American citizens lined up for the Swift jobs in Iowa. "If they get across my fence we sign `em up for the Olympics." They slowed the fence down so they could come out with Amnesty. "Bush-McCain-Kennedy" bill applause.

Brownback -- No new paths to citizenship, let them get in the back of the line for current paths. Border enforcement, interior enforcement -- that can work, better than nothing. Qualified support for McCain bill.

T Thompson: Secure border first. This is an amnesty bill. People believe in secure border first

Paul: We subsidize illegal immigration, so we get more of it. If we had a truly free market economy they would not be scapegoat (applause)

Raise hands: English official language? Seems unanimous. McCain goes on about Navajo language negotiations in AZ. My bill requires learning English.

6:23 Immigration to Tancredo (chuckles in audience). Tancredo: It's not just jobs, schools, hospitals, and welfare -- will we survive as a nation? We're testing our willingness to hold together as a nation, to hold onto English. Bilingual nation is not good. I'll go after any Republican who supports (big applause)

Rudy -- plan has no unifying purpose. Everyone compromises, Washington mess. May make things worse. Need ID card, database, throw out these not in. Credit companies can do, so can we.

Romney asked about McCain attacks on his flip-flop. Romney: I won't personalize. We should enforce laws. Z Visa is a problem. Almost everyone gets to stay, unfair to millions of others waiting (applause)

McCain: I agree with Judd Gregg (who called Tancredo "Know-Nothing"). And hey, Rudy, that stuff's in the plan. This is nat'l security. We've come together and figured out a bipartisan approach. We need to act. You got a better idea? (Hoots, mixed applause and boos). This is not what I would have written myself. Wolf tries to cut off six times or so...

Rudy: "They say things, bit it's not in the legislation." No uniform database, no departure data. 9/11.

Romney -- what would you do with those here "Enforce the law as it exists" (applause) Make Z Visa temporary.

6:17 to Brownback -- negotiations with Iran? Brownback: at times we do have to talk, that's not negotiation. We have to confront them for sponsoring terrorism.

Hunter: 2 conditions 1) we need to stop equipment moving from Iran to Iraq and 2) US may have to pre-empt Iran nukes. Wolf: would you (tactical) nuke Iran? "If there was no other way to pre-empt." Don't think it'll take that.

Rudy: Could probably be done conventional -- attacks Dems again. Iran can hand nuclear materials to terrorists. This is a real war (applause)

Gilmore: Iran wants to dominate that part of world -- 1) work with Europe on sanctions 2) Iran nuke unacceptable, all options on table.

Romney: don't take options off table, but step back. People are testing US. "We're not arrogant, but we have resolve." Dems don't think there's a war on terror (applause)

6:10 to McCain -- what if surge fails by Sept? McCain mourns and praises troops, strategy needs to be given a chance to succeed. When Hillary calls this Bush's war... I didn't attack Bill for Kosovo... it's nations that lose wars. (Applause) Then you have to examine options. Brownback plan would "divide bedrooms." Genocide, destabilization, Israel, etc., etc.

T Thompson: Bush should demand Iraq gov’t vote on whether we should stay. Each region of Iraq should elect local leaders. Oil revenue splits.

Hunter -- how much longer should US stay if surge fails? Depends on reliable Iraqi forces. Need to get them combat capable, rotate in.

Paul: Sooner we come home the better. Was a mistake to go, a mistake to stay. We're more threatened by staying (applause)

Romney: It's Reagan's Birthday! Taliban believes they brought down USSR. "The size of the fight in the dog."

Tancredo: I opposed surge but hope it works. If not, Iraq has "a republic if you can keep it." (applause)

6:05 to Romney -- was it a mistake to invade Iraq? Mitt: we new what we knew at that time. We did not lose the war, bud did not do a great job after winning. Need to stabilize, then bring home. Wolf: knowing what you know now? Romney says that's a "null set question."

Rudy -- same. "Absolutely the right thing to do." Iraq part of overall terrorist war. Dems in denial. Takes it on attack to Dems, turns it into Iran.

McCain -- did you read intelligence estimate? McCain, no, hundreds of briefing. Sanctions were failing. Saddam had WMDs.

Brownback calls for three state solution.

Gilmore: people who sent US to war should have read that report. US needs to create stability in Middle East. Saddam was unstable, but we didn't anticipate more instability.

6:00 and let the games begin. Wolf Blitzer moderating again. Ground rules: Similar. Part 1 journalist questions, Hour 2 citizens, honor system timing (see Chris Dodd for details). Stay on topic, etc.

Batting order: Tancredo, Tommy Thompson gets in a Fred joke, Brownback, Romney, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, Hunter, Gilmore, Paul. Same pattern of frontrunners in the middle.

5:58 and the contenders are at the podiums. GOP Ed Rollins and Dem Robert Zimmerman (not the Hibbing-born singer) pundit on partisan lines. Talk turns to Fred -- who messes up the shorthand. Tom=Thompson or Tancredo? Thompson=Fred or Tommy?

The Fred Fenomenon reminds me of Lee Iacocca circa 1986 or Colin Powell 1995 -- people read into him whatever they want. Of course in this case there's an actual record.

5:51 and greetings from the couch. Catching the crawl below the talking heads, McCain warns of immigration riots. Not quite clear which way. But the talk leading up to the debate is immigration, immigration, immigration -- just as the Democratic pre-game was war, war, war.

Ten candidates will take the stage -- but the unseen 11th contender, Fred Thompson, will cast a shadow.




Caucuses, Debates, Republicans, Sam Brownback,Jim Gilmore, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Tommy Thompson