Number Salad

The Numbers of the Night



54 percent: President-Elect Obama's winning margin in Iowa, to John McCain's 44.7. Obama's 9 point margin ends the string of Iowa nailbiters that had Al Gore carrying the state by 4000 votes in 2000, and flipping to George Bush by 10,000 votes four years ago.

70 percent: Obama's winning percentage in his best county, the People's Republic of Johnson County. Obama exceeded a local Lyndon Johnson record of 68 percent from 1964. The dusty old canvass books may tell if Obama's margin breaks any sort of FDR record. Johnson County had by far the biggest Obama percentage in the state.

Other counties that traditionally go heavily Democratic, such as Des Moines, were just over 60 percent. Obama had an unusual hot spot on the Minnesota border, topping 60 in Winneshiek, Worth, and in his second best county, 63 percent in Howard. Democrats picked up highly targeted state House and Senate races in Winneshiek, so the extra effort may have been a factor.

81 percent: McCain's winning percentage in his best county. One guess... yeah, Sioux County.

30,069: Obama's Johnson County winning margin. Local Democrats set a goal of 25,000 months ago, and far exceeded John Kerry's 19,000 margin.

4,173: John McCain votes in Iowa County.

4,173: Barack Obama votes in Iowa County, giving Iowa County the Golden Hanging Chad Award for close results. Cedar County got national attention in 2000 with an election night tie, but less attention for a final count that gave Al Gore the county by two votes.

55.2 percent: The percentage of Johnson County's vote that came in as early ballots. Yes, more people voted before Election Day than on Election Day. Statewide, 533,967 voters had returned absentee ballots through midday Tuesday, 16 percent higher than 2004. Absentees postmarked by Monday, Nov. 3 can still be counted, which might affect a couple of the races listed below.

62.6 percent: Senator Tom Harkin's winning margin. Some polls showed low-profile Republican Christopher Reed breaking 40 percent, but he landed at 37.4. That can now be marked as the official baseline for Republican votes in Iowa, a few points above Democrat Art Small's 2004 loss to Chuck Grassley.

O. Kay Henderson at Radio Iowa reports that Reed has still not called to congratulate Harkin, but then, neither has Jim Ross Lightfoot, who lost to Harkin 12 years ago.

35.7 percent: Republican Dave Hartsuch's count in the 1st Congressional District, lowest among the ten major party nominees. Rob Hubler made the deep red 5th District as competitive as any of the others, with 37.3 against Steve King.

42.2 percent: Republican Kim Schmett's percentage, making his race against 3rd District Democrat Leonard Boswell, surprisingly, the closest in the state.

0: Iowa women elected to Congress or governorship, as Iowa remains in the club with Mississippi. Democrats had high hopes for Becky Greenwald in the 4th, but Tom Latham held her under 40 percent.

Likewise, the Iowa Republican blogosphere was convinced, without any neutral indications to guide them, that Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 2nd District was the sleeper candidate of the entire nation. But she only pulled 38.9 percent to Democrat Dave Loebsack's 57.1, with the remaining 4 points going to two other candidates.

31-19: The new Iowa Senate margin. Democrats gained three Senate districts. Swati Dandekar won an expected victory in open District 18 in Marion, and Mary Jo Wilhelm knocked off GOP incumbent Mark Zieman in District 8 in the northeast corner. Steve Sodders took open District 22 from the GOP in Marshall County. But two incumbent Democrats went down in defeat: Jeff Danielson in Waterloo's District 10 and Frank Wood in the Quad Cities District 42.

6: State Rep. Wes Whitead's lead in House District 1. Not percentage lead, vote lead. Six (6) votes, the state's closest. Seesaw results and conflicting reports kept the Iowa House in question during the night. For a few hours, Rep. Elesha Gayman was shown as losing, but the highly-targeted Democrat held on once the absentees were added in.

160: Democrat Larry Marek's winning margin in House in House District 89 for a Democratic gain. Marek won with a big margin in the Johnson County part of the district, the same way Becky Schmitz carried the corresponding Senate District 45 two years ago.

56-44: The new Iowa House margin, with six Democratic gains. In addition to Marek, the pickups were open District 16 in the northeast (John Beard) and 13 in Mason City (Sharon Steckman). Kerry Burt knocked off ex-TV anchor Tammy Weincek in Waterloo's District 21. Gene Ficken defeated incumbent Dan Rassmussen in District 23 in Buchanan and Black Hawk counties. Phyllis Thede, who narrowly lost a Senate seat to Hartsuch two years ago, beat incumbent Jamie Van Fossen in Davenport's District 81.

But Democrats lost three seats, including two in two northern Linn County. Nick Wagner beat Gretchen Lawyer in open District 36 (Dandekar's old seat), and Renee Schulte bashed first term Rep. Art Staed over the head with a flowerpot (a frequent ad theme) in District 37 by 47 votes, which is within the provisional ballot and late absentee ballot margin.

Incumbent Democrat Mark Davitt appears to have lost in House District 74, though the Des Moines Register reports that Davitt's campaign gathered different numbers and says they won.

If all results hold (Staed and Whitead may not), that's a Democratic gain of three from the last session, but only a gain of two over the 2006 election results. In perhaps the most frustrating result for Democrats, party switcher Dawn Pettengill held on in Benton County's District 39.

60.8 percent: The narrow winning margin for the $20 million Johnson County conservation bond. The issue got off to a roaring start with 70 percent of the absentee, but saw its margin drop through the night. Two vote No committees fought the measure, but by the time they got started many votes were already in the box. (Like mine--making their two robocalls asking me to vote no pretty much moot.) Local Republicans were urging a No vote on their headquarters answering machine, while the Democrats formally endorsed a Yes vote. With so many Democrats voting early, the election day pool of voters leaned more GOP than average. The measure won the Election Day vote in Iowa City by 60-40 but lost by the same margin in the rest of the county. Janelle Rettig of the Land Water Future vote Yes committee calculates the winning margin at 486 votes.

44: Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States. Obama frequently credited Iowa for the Jan. 3 caucus win that sent him on the road to the White House, and that should help Iowa keep its place in the front of the line for the 2012 and 2016 nomination process.

Editor's note: Some of these numbers could change before results are certified, so take them with a grain of salt.

The Beret's Big-Picture Predictions

The Beret's Big-Picture Predictions

As a self-important, self-appointed pundit, I'd be amiss if I didn't commit and make some predictions. So I've put my thinking beret on and handicapped Iowa's big races.

Iowa Presidential: Obama by at least 12 percent, with negligible third party voting (no candidate above 1 percent). The big mystery is why John McCain threw so much personal time into Iowa so late in the game. There was no way he could make up for the months of personal attention Obama showered on the state at caucus time, and for Iowan's special pride in putting Obama on the road to the nomination. And a handful of September and October visits can't make up for two caucus cycles of Screw Iowa contempt for the caucuses and hostility to ethanol.

US Senate: Harkin 59, Reed 41. Steve King might have been able to pull off a scorched earth, "Tokyo Rose of al-Qaida" campaign against Tom Harkin, but Chris Reed was just invisible. Now granted, I live in the People's Republic of Johnson County, but we are still in the top ten in number of registered Republicans just on sheer population. I've seen a lot of McCain and Miller-Meeks signs, but only one Reed sign. And that was outside of Republican headquarters. That Reed, with no money and undercut by his own party, will break 40 percent will shock some observers. But 40 percent is just the rock solid vote for Not Tom Harkin.

Incumbents will sweep the U.S. House races. Republican Dave Hartsuch's percentage in the 1st District will be the lowest of the ten major party nominees, lower than Democrat Rob Hubler's in the 5th. The most publicity Hartsuch has gotten in the late stages of the campaign was getting snubbed, and then complaining about it with a bizarre "John McCain is too pro-gay" theme, when McCain visited Davenport. But Hartsuch has raised his profile on the right for the inevitable primary challenge he'll see in 2010 for his state Senate seat. That'll be one of the landmark battles in the Iowa GOP's ongoing battle--call it a holy war--over its direction.

Oh, yeah, I forgot the incumbent. Bruce Braley will continue to entrench himself in the district. This race would have been more entertaining if 2006 Pirate Party candidate James Hill had run again.

I've seen no evidence that Mariannette Miller-Meeks has a real shot in the 2nd District outside of wishful thinking in the Iowa Republican blogosphere. Sure, sleeper races happen sometimes--like Loebsack did two years ago. But you mean to tell me than in a banner Democratic year, with with the top of the ticket a Democrat who's singularly popular in Iowa facing a Republican who's singularly unpopular, and the state's senior Democrat facing a nonentity, that a Republican who's on no national Races To Watch list is going to win in a blue district? Even Loebsack, the ultimate sleeper candidate, was on the radar at the end, and that was in a year when the tide was moving with his party, not in the opposite direction that Miller-Meeks faces.

Miller-Meeks' partisans will argue that she was also a come-from behind underdog in the primary against Peter Teahen. True, but a couple weeks out there were signs that Teahen was in trouble. Not here. MMM will lose, but will walk away with more credibility than Hartsuch.

Independent Brian White's "parties are bad" message failed to catch on, but may pull a couple percent that would otherwise have gone to Miller-Meeks. Wendy Barth of the Greens pursued a holistic, low-key "sustainability" campaign when a hard-left appeal to the zero-fund the war, Impeach Now! crowd might have been more effective. (Question for Barth, who ran statewide in 2006 for governor: Why this race? Why not the higher profile contest against Harkin? The Greens opposed Harkin in 2002, but this year it's just a two-way race.)

The 3rd District is the Republican's lost opportunity this cycle. Leonard Boswell continues to underperform in what 1) should be a safe district given his seniority and the 3rd's partisan leanings and 2 ) could elect a more progressive Democrat than rural Blue Dog Boswell. Primary challenger Ed Fallon had the right message but proved to be the wrong messenger. The "Nader, Nader, Nader" refrain over Fallon's repudiated, eight-year-old presidential vote got tiresome, but worked with Democratic primary voters. (Question: Should Obama win the presidency, especially if he carries Florida, will Democrats finally let go of their obsessive hatred of Ralph Nader?)

Editorial boards dance around the underlying issues of Boswell's age and health. The Des Moines Register made an extremely weak "endorsement" that called for a last term pledge, and the Cedar Rapids Gazette endorsed Schmett for the same reason. There's got to be a lot of behind the scenes angling going on in Polk County, but no Democrat other than Fallon seems to want to openly tell Leonard it's time to hang it up. Look for Republican Kim Schmett to land in the low, maybe mid, 40s and surprise people... and look for nothing to happen after that, as a generation of Des Moines pols wait for Boswell to retire or otherwise leave office.

The 4th District is the only Iowa race on the fringes of the national Races To Watch lists, but Becky Greenwald will fall just short. Tom Latham hasn't angered people the way Steve King has, and he saw Greenwald's challenge and the bad Republican year coming and adapted in time. Call it 53-47 Latham, and give the Sore Loser Of The Year award to Democratic primary candidate William Meyers. His bizarre, on-again off-again, on the ballot then write-in race has cost him any credibility. (But note to party activists: give long-shot primary contenders fair treatment. Meyers complained that he was denied access to central committees, and that fueled his post-primary efforts. Ten minutes of time wasted on a rambling speech at a party meeting can save you months of headaches like this.)

Just as Republicans are unrealistic in the 2nd District, Democrats are also indulging in wishful thinking with Rob Hubler in the 5th District, simply because they love to hate Steve King so much. But as Douglas Burns notes, Hubler had hoped to catch a net-driven fundraising and publicity wave based on King's frequent and deliberate outrageous comments. That's what happened in Minnesota's 6th District, where Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg is poised to knock off first-term Republican Michele Bachmann. But it just didn't happen for Hubler.

Closer to home, look for Democrats to gain a few seats in both houses of the Legislature. The Iowa GOP is throwing everything they have into House races and a few Senate races (just watch TV for the negative ad evidence), so there may be one or two counter-trend GOP pickups to cushion their losses. My pick for the big upset: Frank Best over Tom Sands in Louisa County based House 87.

Democrats are within reach of two-thirds in the Senate, which would mean Republicans would lose their de facto veto over Governor Culver's appointments--IF Democrats stick with the governor. But those intrigues will give us something to talk about this winter.

Reed, Hartsuch Left To Die At Triage Time

Are Reed and Hartsuch being "triaged out"?

Fans of the TV show "M*A*S*H" remember the mad rush of triage, as the buses rolled in and Ottumwa's own Radar O'Reilly yelled "Choppers!" At triage time, the wounded are divided into three groups. The soldiers with the superficial wounds are left to fend for themselves, while those who can't be saved are, in the cruel logic of allocating resources, left to die. The immediate attention goes to the middle group, who have serious wounds but can be saved.

Thus it is in politics. Both parties, in cold political Darwinism, leave the weak to die. It happened to me in my own legislative race 12 years ago. But at the moment, the grumbling appears louder on the Republican side.

Iowa's conservative blogosphere is grumbling that Christopher Reed, the long-shot challenger to Senator Tom Harkin, is being triaged out. The latest controversy centers around Reed's charges on Steve Deace's WHO radio show that that Caleb Hunter, executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, is "actively telling Iowa voters not to support my candidacy because I have no chance to win." Reed also said Hunter was telling donors their efforts were better spent on trying to win back the Iowa House, where Democrats now hold a 53-47 edge.

"The only groups that I have seen attempting to support Reed at all are the Iowa Right to Life and Iowa Christian Alliance," writes the Iowa Defense Alliance blog, saying that the treatment of Reed reflects on the Republican State Convention's battle over National Committee seats. "These are the same people that claimed that (Iowa Right to Life head) Kim Lehman couldn’t be a national chairwoman because she wouldn’t support all Republicans. Now the shoe is on the other foot. These same people are now doing what they claimed that Lehman would do," Iowa Defense Alliance writes, calling RPI leadership "the Romney Party of Iowa."

"Reed's information is second or third hand," writes Republican state central committee member David Chung at the Hawkeye GOP blog. "I do not know exactly what was said or where but it sounds as if it lost something in the translation."

"(Former state Rep. George) Eichhorn was definitely the 'insider' candidate with more ties to party leadership, and I’m sure they weren’t too happy when their buddy got beat," write Nathan Greene at Battleground Iowa. "I don’t think Hunter was telling people not to vote for Reed, but he was certainly telling people he doesn’t think Reed has a chance, so people should send their money and their volunteer hours over to (House minority leader Christopher) Rants."

"It’s one thing if the party doesn’t have the money to financially support Reed," writes Greene. It is another thing altogether to actively attempt to sabotage his volunteer and fundraising efforts."

The multiple posts on the party's support, or lack thereof, have led to comment wars on the blogs. "You, Christopher, have raised less than $20,000 for your campaign for US SENATE - you need to just curl up and hide your pitiful, pitiful self -- you are an embarrassment," writes an anonymous 'Steve' on Battleground Iowa. "Go buy yourself another suit or haircut with your campaign funds," he adds, repeating an often-noted criticism of Reed.

Clayton County Republican Chair Gwen Eilers has gone so far as to send out a mass email urging Republicans to write in third-place primary candidate Steve Rathje instead of voting for Reed.

"It is no secret that RPI has limited funds this election cycle," writes Chung. "I supported the decision to target these funds to those races where they are likely to be affect the outcome. These chosen few are not chosen for their ideological purity. If it were so, Reed would be at the top of the list. But a dispassionate view, looking to target key races, the U.S. Senate race is not one of them."

Despite his near-invisibility, Reed is reaching as high as 40 percent in some polls, simply by being Not Tom Harkin. Yet, with presidential nominee John McCain in the state Saturday, Reed's name was not mentioned from the podium in Davenport, and no Reed signs were visible in the hall.

Instead, underscoring the Republican Party's apparant priority, state Rep. Steve Olson said, “I believe we can take over the Iowa House.” Also speaking were state Rep. Jamie Van Fossen and two legislative challengers: Ross Paustian, House 84 challenger against first-term Democrat Elesha Gayman, and state senate challenger Shawn Hamerlink, opposing Sen. Frank Wood.

And with the presidential candidate of his party in his home county, sitting state senator and 1st Congressional District challenger Dave Hartsuch did not speak. National handicappers all rank the 1st District as safe for freshman Democrat Bruce Braley.

Hartsuch Believes Message Will beat Money in 1st CD

Hartsuch Believes Message Will beat Money in 1st CD

Two years ago, Iowa's 1st Congressional District was at the top of national target lists for both parties. Republican incumbent Jim Nussle stepped down to run for governor and Democrat Bruce Braley won the seat in one of the highest spending races in the country.

It couldn't be more different this year.

In a district that was held for decades, under varying configurations, by Republicans like Tom Tauke, Jim Leach, and Nussle, the Republican nominee is having trouble even campaigning door to door. State Sen. David Hartsuch of Bettendorf says he doesn't even have enough money in the bank to print flyers for doorknocking.

Still, Hartsuch thinks his solid conservative message will prevail in the district, which includes Waterloo, Dubuque, and Davenport. "I think the Republican Party doesn't even think this is a winnable race. They think it's a left leaning district. But Chuck Grassley got 69 percent of the vote in the 1st District in `04."

Hartsuch hopes to make a silk purse out of the sow's ear of an underfinanced campaign. "Three-quarters of his contributions come from trial attorneys," he said of Braley, who headed the Iowa Trial Lawyer's Association before he was elected. "He's got a spigot of fundraising. He turns it on, the money flows out. And he's been very responsive to that constituency"

The Democrats have a post-caucus voter registration lead of about 10,000 in the 1st District, but Hartsuch thinks many of those registered Democrats aren't going to be voting Democratic. "The Democrats have has a concerted effort to enroll Democrats. I believe in some case, particularly with regard to unions, I think they actually use coercive methods."

Braley defeated Republican Mike Whalen in the 2006 race, 55 percent to 43 percent. But Hartsuch notes that Mary Anne Hanusa, the little-known, last minute replacement Republican candidate for Secretary of State, won 42 percent in the 1st District. "That should tell you there's a substantial baseline Republican vote," he said. "I believe this is a winnable race."

Hartsuch, an emergency room physician who is also a certified public accountant, got his start in electoral politics two years ago, challenging and defeating long-time moderate Republican state senator Maggie Tinsman in the primary. Hartsuch then narrowly defeated Democrat Phyllis Thede in November, in a normally Republican district. Since Hartsuch is in the middle of his term, he can return to the state Senate if his challenge to Braley is unsuccessful.

"America is at a tipping point as to the preservation of its values. Liberalism has really laid waste to traditional American ideology, and the result has been a decline in our standard of living, a decline in our traditional values, and a lot of Americans are concerned about that."

Hartsuch says the issues he hears about most from voters are higher energy prices, higher taxes, border security and preserving patient choice in health care "Barack Obama is going to drive us into socialized medicine where people use their ability to choose providers," he said of the Democratic standard bearer.

As for his own party, Hartsuch said, "I think we are polarized right now, and I honestly don't know what's going to happen. I endorsed Mike Huckabee (in the caucuses), but I think in retrospect John McCain would be the best person to unite this country."

"Where we're at as a party is kind of where the Whig party was at at the formation of the Republican Party years ago with Abraham Lincoln," said Hartsuch. The Whigs didn't want to address the issue of slavery, and Lincoln was willing to take that issue on. I've been reading a lot of Lincoln's speeches lately, and those same discussions revolve around a lot of these social issues like same-sex marriage. The question is, does one state have a right to marry same sex couples that would otherwise be considered not married in another state. It was the same question in the Dred Scott decision with regard to slavery."

"I’m getting a lot of questions on the same-sex marriage issue, and certainly it's an issue which divides Bruce Braley and myself," said Hartsuch. "He already said in the last election that he felt it was discriminatory and he opposes any constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. I, on the other hand, of course have been a strong defender of traditional marriage in the Senate, and the general public supports traditional marriage."

"Bruce Braley has voted to raise taxes by not making the tax cuts permanent," Hartsuch said of his opponent. "He has consistently voted against any expansion of oil production or energy production. The Democrats have been trying to make it appear as if they're for expanded drilling but in reality those proposals are kind of empty."

Iowa Senate's New Winger

Iowa Senate's New Winger

Ken Veenstra got knocked off in a primary - too right-wing for Sioux County! - and Steve King squeaked through a nominating convention to move on to bigger things. But the Iowa Senate would be incomplete without one batshit crazy winger. The new loon is David Hartsuch, the guy who knocked off moderate Maggie Tinsman in a primary, making an ass of himself while offering homophobe amendments in the bullying bill debate:

While offering that amendment, Hartsuch quizzed fellow freshman Sen. Staci Appel, D-Indianola, about her work as a Sunday school teacher. Democrats objected to what they saw as an overly personal exchange.

"Point of order," yelled Sen. Bob Dvorsky, D-Coralville, who accused Hartsuch's line of straying from his amendment's subject and violating senate rules.

"You're supposed to keep things sort of impersonal ... He was getting pretty close to the line there," Dvorsky said Wednesday. "I think he basically just needs to know the rules of the Senate and how you do debates and how you address people."

Hartsuch didn't back down Wednesday.

"When you see idiocy and you face idiocy, you need to confront idiocy."

Look in the mirror, Dave. Look in the mirror.

---

Waiting for that pre-caucus cattle call debate? You may be waiting a while:

Representatives for Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama and 2004 vice presidential nominee John Edwards contacted Democratic National Committee executive directior Tom McMahon to request a meeting. The top advisers to Clinton and Obama then secretly came to McMahon's office together Wednesday and asked him to bring some order to the schedule of joint appearances.

The candidates are concerned about fitting all the joint appearances into their schedules, but are afraid to turn down invitations and upset the influential hosts who sponsor the gatherings. They want the party to set the limits so they don't have to, something that DNC officials said they are exploring with the nine candidates.

I know inclusiveness is nice, and we need some cattle calls. But I'd love to see a Big Three Only forum too. Let them stretch out and talk without constant interruptions from Mike Gravel and Dennis Kookcinich.