Back in Black: One Year Senator Makes Comeback

Back in Black: One Year Senator Makes Comeback

I had this one WRONG! but so did everyone else:

Jim Black, a former senator, announced this morning that he is running again for the Senate.

Black, 51, a Republican, is running for the newly created Senate District 4, which includes Emmet, Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright Counties in northern Iowa. After this year’s redistricting, no incumbent was left in the district.

B-b-b-b-but, hasn't everyone assumed since Map Day that this was Stew's path back to the Senate?

Rep. Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, will work as Black’s campaign chairman...

I see. So presumably he stays and runs in House District 8 demoinesdem reminds me that Henry Rayhons has already announced in the once tripled-up HD08. So now I'm more confused.

...and Black has also received encouragement from Gov. Terry Branstad, a long-time friend, according to today’s press release.

New Senate 4 is in fact very similar to the turf Black held for one year, 1997, before abruptly resigning "after his first year in office, citing family troubles." Or perhaps Terry Branstad gave him a job.



Four counties are the same: Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright. In the new seat, Emmett replaces Humboldt. (This area also includes Branstad's original home stomping grounds.)

Black may face a primary from Tea partier Dennis Guth, who should bring a lot of comic relief to the race. Democrats have a solid recruit in Bob Jennings, information director for Algona Municipal Utilities and is a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona.

By the numbers, the edge goes to the GOP, with a registration lead of 2700. Last map, this area was split between retiring Democrat Jack Kibbie and Republicans Rob Bacon (now making a Senate to House move) and Merlin Bartz.

Rayhons running for re-election

Rayhons running for re-election

Here's one no one figured would happen on Map Day: the guy left standing in the state's only tripled-up legislative district is... Henry Rayhons?!?

The 75 year old Republican legislator has announced for re-election in House District 8.

That seems to complete the musical chairs in the district, which includes all of Hancock and Wright counties and part of Kossuth and has a comfortable GOP edge. House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer has announced her move to House District 54.

The third Republican representative, Stew Iverson, has not announced his plans but is universally assumed to be running in open Senate District 4. Two other SD04 candidates have announced: Democrat Bob Jennings and tea partyish Republican Dennis Guth.

Another legislative announcement: GOP freshman Josh Byrnes is running for a second term in House District 51, which changes a lot and has just a narrow GOP edge. Byrnes won an open seat when Democrat Mark Kuhn stepped down.

Aside on Wisconsin: Taking two seats from the other party ain't a "loss."

Dems Have Senate 4 Candidate

Democrat Bob Jennings announces in Open Senate District 4

Democrats have recruited a candidate with strong community ties in empty Senate District 4.

Bob Jennings of Algona sports a good profile for a sprawling small town and rural north Iowa district with five whole counties (Emmett, Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright):

Jennings, 50, is information director for Algona Municipal Utilities and is a former news director for KLGA radio in Algona.

He is on the Iowa Lakes Community College board of trustees and is a former president of the Algona Chamber of Commerce.

Is that enough to overcome a GOP registration edge of 2700? Well, some of this turf was Jack Kibbie's for a very long time. The rest of it belonged to Republicans Merlin Bartz and Rob Bacon last map. All three of them got paired up in other directions, with Kibbie retiring and the other two not yet announced.

The Republicans have one announced candidate, Tea partier Dennis Guth, who should being a lot of comic relief to the race. But the likely, not yet announced, Republican candidate is Stewart Iverson, who was part of the triple-up in the House District 8 half of this district (now just a double-up with Linda Upmeyer moving out). WRONG!

Saturday Morning Funnies

Saturday Morning Funnies

Get your cereal, we have a good one this morning. Tea partier Dennis Guth has announced in Senate District 4 and so far he's our leading contender for the Nobel Unintentional Humor Prize for Campaign 2012:

Guth criticized government mandates such as mental health. "I don't think we need to be mandating things that we don't support," he said.

Like that great line from Charlie Wilson's War: "The Ethics Committee?!? Well, Jesus, Donnelly. Everyone in town knows I'm on the other side of that issue."

"Guth stressed his strong support of the Second Amendment, saying he has a permit to carry a concealed weapon." So he's armed and against mental health.

There's more: "Addressing a question about preschools, Guth said mothers should be staying home to care for their children, not sending them to preschool."

The no-incumbent Senate 4, of course, is where Stewart Iverson is expected to run. But there's no announcement yet. A GOP primary would make for some good entertainment. But be careful at the debate, Stew, Dennis may be packin'.

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In less crazy news, yet another Democrat is on the comeback trail. Art Staed of Cedar Rapids, who won one term in 2006 before losing to Renee Schulte by 13 votes in 2008, has announced in House 66. Changes to the turf make it more Democratic.

This will be Staed's fourth run; he lost to Jeff Elgin in 2004. He took 2010 off. Democrats thought they had a good shot against Schulte with attorney Mark Seidl but Schulte won solidly.

Upmeyer Makes Move Official

Upmeyer Makes Move to House 54 Official

This one's been anticipated since Map Day and now it's finally official:

House Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer has announced plans to run for re-election in House District 54.

After redistricting, District 54 is comprised of portions of Cerro Gordo and Butler Counties and all of Franklin County. Upmeyer intends to move to the Clear Lake area to run in, what is essentially, the district she currently represents.

My guess is she was just waiting till the end of session, which at the rate it was going could have pushed it dangerously close to the March 2012 filing period.

Upmeyer was part of the only triple-up in the whole state in House 8 with fellow Republicans Stewart Iverson and Henry Rayhons. It almost looked like a deal breaker for the whole Map for a few hours. But Iverson is widely expected to run in open Senate District 4. Rayhons, in his mid 70s, could be a retirement, but with Iverson and Upmeyer settled he could decide to stick around.

As for Upmeyer's new district, it's got a better Republican registration edge (+4000) than either her seat from last decade or the one she shared with Iverson and Rayhons. So she can worry less about re-election and more about why her presidential candidate, Newt Gingrich, is tanking. She's chairing his state committee but since the post-vacation cruise staff evacuation, she says her Newt duties are "on the back burner."

A couple months back, TheIowaRepublican was reporting young veteran Gabe Haugland was also interested in 54 on the GOP side; any ammo still in that round?

District of the Day: Senate District 4, House District 7 and 8

District of the Day: Senate District 4, House District 7 and 8



Senate District 4

Registration: D 11,890, R 14,602, N 15,880, total 42,381, R+ 2712
No Incumbent

Five whole counties- Emmett, Kossuth, Winnebago, Hancock and Wright-with no senators. This turf was split between Jack Kibbie, Merlin Bartz, and Rob Bacon in the old map. No one county dominates geographically as all are of similar size, between 10,000 and 16,000 population in a 61,000 body district. That's a lot of parades.

Last year Bacon knocked off Democrat Rich Olive, who won in 2006 when Stew Iverson quit his re-elect race after being deposed as Senate Republican leader. Iverson, of course, made a comeback last year when he defeated Six Pack Democrat McKinley Bailey in a Wright-Hamilton district.

Iverson is part of the triple-up in House 8 (see below) which is partially resolved by his likely run in this seat. There's not a lot of overlap between new senate 4 and the old Senate 5 that he held. Wright is the south end of the new seat that borders Minnesota. The old one went south from Wright instead, through Hamilton, wrapped around Ames to take in most of geographic Story, and ended way down at the Polk County line. The old seat was a few hundred voters more Republican, but Olive still managed to squeak through by 61 votes in a Democratic landslide year.

House District 7

Registration: D 6526, R 6405, N 8514, total 21,450, D+ 121
Incumbent: John Wittneben, D-Estherville

Day Four and finally our first House Democrat. Wittneben was one of the D's few bright spots in 2010, holding an open lean-Democratic district by just 32 votes when Marcy Frevert retired. But the new district loses 1200 Democrats to become a swing seat. Wittneben loses the Frevert base of Palo Alto but keeps his own Emmet County base and rural north Kossuth. But significantly, he adds the city of Algona.

House District 8

Registration: D 5364, R 8197, N 7366, total 20931, R+ 2833

Incumbents: Linda Upmeyer, R-Garner, Stew Iverson, R-Clarion, and Henry Rayhons, R-Garner

UPDATE July 14: Upmeyer officially announces move to House 54.

UPDATE August 10: Rayhons staying and running.

For a few hours on March 31, it looked like this was the seat that could have scuttled the whole plan. With Upmeyer and Rayhons both carrying Garner addresses, it would have been hard for the map geeks to keep them apart; Iverson was just one more wrench in the works.

Early reports were that Upmeyer would be the one who stayed, but now it seems she's looking at open House 54 to the north. Rayhons is 75 and was pegged as a retirement, but if Upmeyer does move he could stick around. Iowa Politics offered a good summary on April 20:

Upmeyer has said she might move from her longtime farm in Garner to a condominium in the Clear Lake area. But if she doesn’t, Rayhons said he’ll retire instead of running against his fellow Republican.

“It’s going to all depend on what Representative Upmeyer does,” Rayhons told IowaPolitics.com. “I would guess that I would probably run for that House seat if Representative Upmeyer decides to move. However, I will not interject if Representative Upmeyer stays where she is and wants the seat. I would quit the Legislature, probably.”

As for Iverson, speculation is that he might run for a state Senate seat that’s vacant due to redistricting. Iverson is a former Senate majority leader. However, he said Tuesday that he hadn’t made up his mind on his political future.

“I have absolutely made no decisions yet,” Iverson said. “The House district looks pretty good. The Senate district looks pretty good. There happens to be three Republicans in the House district. Representative Upmeyer, Representative Rayhons and I have not sat down. We have not talked about anything. I have to tell you, I’ve made no decisions yet whatsoever, and I probably won’t make a decision until next fall.”

However, Iverson is sure about one thing.

“I am not moving,” he said.

If Upmeyer stays she gets a slightly more Republican district. She'd lose Winnebago and Worth to the north and east. This seat instead goes south to Iverson's Wright County base and gets southern and western Kossuth, but not the city of Algona.

Rayhon's old turf went to the east in Franklin and picked up the Clear Lake part of Cerro Gordo, which is specifically where Upmeyer is taking about moving. Open House 54 could also have been the escape route for Annette Sweeney, who drew the short straw in the pair with Pat Grassley. But it's starting to look like she drew the short straw here, too.

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