District of the Day: Senate District 24, House Districts 47 and 48

District of the Day: Senate District 24, House Districts 47 and 48

Senate District 24

Registration: D 12565, R 12944, N 15395, total 40931, R+ 379
Incumbent: Jerry Behn, R-Boone

Behn, 57, went to the Senate in 1996, knocking off Democratic incumbent Al Sorensen. Sorensen made a comeback attempt in 2008 but lost 59% to 41%. That must have fueled Behn's ambitions, and he launched a brief, inexplicable run for governor in 2009, until his constituent Terry Branstad got into the race.

A lot changes for Behn with this map. He keeps his Boone County base, in fact he now has the whole county. But he loses more constituents than he keeps, because the old lines went south to take in most of Dallas County, which now dominates TWO new districts. Indeed, Behn's old turf had the second most registered voters of any Senate district, behind only Jack Whitver in Ankeny. Behn keeps none of that high-growth Dallas turf. Instead, he gets bits of Story and Webster and all of Hamilton and Greene. Losing Dallas County costs Behn about 3,000 registered Republicans and turns this into a swing district. It's even numbered, which means Behn runs next year.

House District 47

Registration: D 6574, R 6499, N 8095, total 21184, D+ 75
Incumbent: Chip Baltimore, R-Boone

Republican Chip Baltimore won one of 2010's biggest upsets and closest races, defeating Democrat Donovan Olson by just 23 votes in a seat with an 1100 Democratic registration edge.

Baltimore keeps most of Boone County, including the city and everything west. A few townships shift around on the east. He gives up Perry in north Dallas county, an area that Olson won. Instead gets all of Greene County. This changes the margin from a Democratic seat to a very close swing seat. Still, this is the kind of place Democrats need to win back if they want to recapture the House.

House District 48

Registration: D 5991, R 6445, N 7300, total 19747, R+ 454
No Incumbent (Lisa Heddens, D-Ames, moving to House 46)

UPDATE June 7: Heddens makes move to 46 official; former Sen. Rich Olive (D-Story City) announces for House 48

UPDATE September 9: Senator Rob Bacon is moving in and will have a rematch with Olive.

Update Oct. 7: Olive out.

Hamilton County makes up about half of this district. That was home base for two-term Democrat McKinley Bailey, who lost to Stew Iverson in 2010. The new seat also includes parts of rural Boone County, southeast Webster County and a little corner of Story, going all the way up to the Ames city limits. New 48 is good Republican territory, but not great, and could be winnable for the right Democrat.

But it's really unfamiliar territory for Lisa Heddens, the Ames-based legislator who lives in that one township just north of the city limits. She's announced her move back into 46, which opens up a slot for Landslide Rich Olive.

Olive, as you may recall, started out in 2006 challenging Iverson. But then Stew quit the race after being deposed as Senate GOP leader. The wave of `06 crested high enough to sweep Olive in by 61 votes over the GOP replacement candidate, then-Rep. Jim Kurtenbach.

It was in with the wave, out with the wave for Olive, who lost to Rob Bacon last year. But that Senate seat was fairly Republican, with a registration edge of 3290. This seat has a Republican edge of 454, putting it into swing territory.

The Republican this seat could be an escape route for is David Tjepkes, paired with tea party freshman Tom Shaw. He lives in Gowrie, just a few miles beyond the lines. But there's very little overlap with his old turf, which ran south to Greene and west to Calhoun.

So that could be a problem. But it's nothing compared to the problems for Republicans we'll see tomorrow.

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District of the Day: Senate District 5, House District 9 and 10

District of the Day: Senate District 5, House District 9 and 10



Senate District 5

Registration: D 12,744, R 12,705, N 15,365, total 40,846, D+ 39
Incumbent: Daryl Beall, D-Ft. Dodge

Beall won a third term last year in old district 25 with 54%. Beall loses about 900 Democrats and gets a dead-even district that votes on the lower turnout gubernatorial cycle. The new seat keeps Ft. Dodge and Calhoun County but loses Greene County to the south and instead goes go north into Pocahontas and Humboldt. Beall has till 2014 to get to know those new constituents.

The Senate district is polarized between a Democratic half and an equally GOP part.

House District 9

Registration: D 7625, R 5253, N 6484, total 19378, D+ 2372
Incumbent: Helen Miller, D-Ft. Dodge

Update September 11: Alcazar running again.

Very little change for Miller in the district she's held since 2002. She keeps her entire old district and adds three townships to maintain roughly the same Democratic edge. This is one of those ones where the district lines practically draw themselves. An ideal House district size is 30,538, and the Ft. Dodge census population is 25,206.

Miller won with a surprisingly close 52% last time against Matt Alcazar, a tea partier opponent who had started out running as an independent. Speaking of tea partiers who started out running as independents...

House District 10

Registration: D 5119, R 7452, N 8881, total 21468, R+ 2333
Incumbents: Tom Shaw, R-Laurens, and Dave Tjepkes, R-Gowrie

Tom Shaw, who first announced his 2010 run as an independent, won an epic primary and then took over with ease in the general as conservaDem Dolores Mertz retired. Shaw, age 49, has taken the hard-right approach along with fellow freshmen Glen Massie and Kim Pearson: uber-purist on abortion, joining the late session Supreme Court impeachment effort. He keeps his native Pocahontas County and Humboldt, but loses the city of Algona and southern Kossuth.

Tjepkes, age 67, hails from Gowrie in rural Webster County. He first won old district 50 in the last year lines were redone, 2002. He keeps Calhoun County but loses all of Greene County, which instead goes with Boone County into freshman Republican Chip Baltimore's seat. Tjepkes was was a 64% winner in 2008 and unopposed in 2010.

Tjepkes took the opposite approach to Shaw on marriage equality, as one of four House Republicans who did not co-sponsor the constitutional amendment (though he, along with all Republicans and sadly three Democrats, ended up voting for it). This had some folks talking primary challenge even before the map came out.

The two paired incumbents are from opposite corners of the district. The new seat is more Republican than either of the old seats. With the Senate seat on the odd cycle, a run at Beall is only an option if one of the two House members stands down for two years. Tjepkes could go east into new 48, where technically Democrat Lisa Heddens lives (but she's expected to go with most of her voters in the open 46 in Ames), but there's very little overlap with the old Tjepkes turf and it's a swing seat.

Shaw could go north a couple miles into the open district 2, but there's no overlap at all with his old turf and, while it's a good GOP district, the new one he's in is better. Shaw didn't back down from a contested primary last time, and the tea party favorite beat Stephen Richards, the main-chance doctor who had fallen only 42 votes short of Mertz in 2008.

On Map Day, Tjepkes said he was inclined to run, while Shaw declined comment. desmoinesdem bets on party establishment support leading to a Tjepkes primary win, but in a GOP primary my money is always on the crazy.

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