The long-threatened nomination date changes have started, with Florida now leapfrogging back to January 29th. Chris Bowers at MyDD has some analysis. The DNC is likely to penalize Florida by cutting delegates, yet Michigan is muttering about following suit.
Floridian Ron Gunzburger of Politics1 loves it, stepping outside his usual relentless objectivity for this shot:
Florida is doing a long-term favor to the voters of the 46 states not granted special early privileges by the two major parties with their fixed schedule. My state may lose nearly all of our 2008 convention delegates by refusing to genuflect before the bipartisan altar of corn and granite -- but we'll bring about the end of the unfair schedule forced upon us by the strong arm tactics of the DNC and RNC.
All this messes up the artfully negotiated Iowa-Nevada-New Hampshire-South Carolina dance set up last summer, and raises the possibility of our own move. The Republicans have also anticipated this and have not even officially scheduled their Iowa caucus date yet. (A quick call to RPI HQ indicates they've been planning for 1/14, but the official action hasn't happened. They're focused on the buy-a-vote straw poll anyway.)
This all recalls the leapfrog game of the fall of 1999 when Iowa announced a second, then a third caucus date before it finally stuck. That was driven by the South Carolina Republicans, and the 2000 Iowa date wasn't finalized until October 14, 1999.
As late as 1996, the caucuses were on February 12.
Tom Beaumont at the Register has his take, quoting ex-IDP chair Rob Tully as anticipating a move to January 7. Don't make any New Year's Eve plans yet, friends...
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