Yepsen dropped this obvious trial balloon into the bottom of yesterday's column:
"Think Bob Vander Plaats is ready to drop his bid for governor to become Jim Nussle's running mate? He says no, but there's talk of it in Iowa GOP circles."
Several other bloggers beat me to it - so I'm left with the local Johnson County angle and the ripple effect on the Democratic race.
Here in the People's Republic, the Democratic primary is the de facto election for courthouse offices. No Republican has won a county job since `84. Republicans have been known, on occasion, to cross over, and have been heard asking "how soon can I change back" immediately afterwards. I discussed this dynamic at more length in December.
This year could be different, with a hot open seat governor's race. But for Johnson County's conservatives (few but pesky) they have to choose between that contest and the Democratic primary for the Board of Supervisors and the open county attorney's office.
If Vander Plaats cuts a deal, that dilemma is nullified. The only remaining statewide contest is Secretary of Agriculture - not a big draw. Republicans interested in ag around here are more interested in the courthouse jobs.
So a Nussle-Vander Plaats ticket reduces GOP turnout, increases "Democratic" turnout, and hurts liberals locally. How does it affect the state races? Because of the attention on the local jobs, Johnson County turnout is disproportionately high in primaries. However, there's a lot of undervoting in top of the ticket races.
My gut check is it helps Blouin to the extent it helps anyone. It sure doesn't help Fallon.
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder