Gallup runs the numbers for 2008:
Clinton has a sizeable lead over the rest of the Democratic field, as 40% of Democratic registered voters prefer her to other possible nominees. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards are the closet pursuers, at just 16% and 15%, respectively. Nine percent favor Delaware Sen. Joe Biden, while 5% or less currently support retired general Wesley Clark (5%), New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (3%), Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (3%), and Virginia Governor Mark Warner (2%).
On the Republican side, 27% of registered voters support Giuliani and 24% back McCain. Rice is the choice of 19% of Republican registered voters. The remaining Republicans tested in the poll are all in single digits, including Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee (9%), Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (4%), New York Governor George Pataki (3%), Virginia Sen. George Allen (3%), and Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback (2%). Less than 1% chose Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel.
At this point we're just polling name ID. In August 2001 - a geological era ago politically - Al Gore was still lapping the Democratic field and he wound up not even running (thank God). But HRC clearly IS running and I'll repeat she's unstoppable. Not that we should necessarily WANT to stop her (though I'd like to see her stop pandering on free speech issues - aren't there bigger things to worry about than video games?)
I have a favorite phrase that describes how likely HRC's nomination is but I won't put it in print. It might be misinterpreted and I've gotten hits from some really weird government domains. (Pardon me while I adjust my tinfoil hat.) If anyone is going to catch her it won't be Kerry; there's an overwhelming "you had your chance" sense. MAYBE Edwards. That "two Americas" speech was sheer poetry. The netgeeks seem to like Clark, but I don't trust anyone who was career military.
The GOP side is more interesting. The very top of the field is tough competition - but Giuliani and McCain are un-nominatable, and Rice is untested in electoral politics, Frist is very clearly out of his league, and Pataki is running for President because he can't get re-elected governor of New York.
The Republican tradition of nominating the guy whose turn it is next seems to be at risk here - unless, as I assume, Jeb gets in.
Or Bob Woodward has a scarier concept:
Woodward predicts Dick Cheney will be the Republican Party's presidential nominee in 2008 and that the vice president could face Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton in a dramatic partisan showdown...
Remember how Cheney was in charge of finding the most qualified VP candidate, and looked in the mirror?
Final prediction: Hillary vs.Jeb.
Politics
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder