A brief dispatch
Quiet enough that I can take a quick break.
Election day turnout is down a bit from 2004, mostly because so many people have already voted. Down some in Iowa City precincts, where many precincts had over half of registered voters already voting early. Holding at the `04 level in the rurals, where more people still like to vote on Election Day, and up in a few high growth areas like North Liberty.
Election Day registration is a big hit. 1,228 in Johnson County as of 3 PM, with student precincts and North Liberty the hot spots. It's really nice not to have to look people in the eye and say "I'm sorry, you can't vote." My first vote was an Election Day registration. I took a letter addressed to my dorm room down to the student union and voted for William Proxmire (which tells you how old I am).
Much quieter on the ballot challenge front than four years ago, due to changes in the law and changes in political strategy (like not doorknocking the student neighborhoods in June in a town where everyone moves August 1st). It seems like the ballot challenge action is in Grinnell.
The first polls in the nation close in an hour. We'll know soon.
4 Kasım 2008 Salı
Election Returns
Election Returns
No Election Day is complete without the Silly Party. Don't forget to vote and let your candidate suffer the fate of Kevin Phillips Bong!
In early returns from the midnight vote in New Hampshire, Obama wins landslides in BOTH Dixville Notch and Hart's Location. Both are normally solid GOP; are those two Ron Paul write-ins a sign of things to come?
Here's an hour by hour guide to watching the numbers roll across the continent.
Kos and CQ make predictions, and Ambinder has the "known unknowns" to watch for.
And for Linux geeks, Linus endorses Obama. Of course, Finland has exactly zero electoral votes.
As usual on E-Day it'll be sporadic from me through the day and number-geeky very very late.
No Election Day is complete without the Silly Party. Don't forget to vote and let your candidate suffer the fate of Kevin Phillips Bong!
In early returns from the midnight vote in New Hampshire, Obama wins landslides in BOTH Dixville Notch and Hart's Location. Both are normally solid GOP; are those two Ron Paul write-ins a sign of things to come?
Here's an hour by hour guide to watching the numbers roll across the continent.
Kos and CQ make predictions, and Ambinder has the "known unknowns" to watch for.
And for Linux geeks, Linus endorses Obama. Of course, Finland has exactly zero electoral votes.
As usual on E-Day it'll be sporadic from me through the day and number-geeky very very late.
3 Kasım 2008 Pazartesi
The Beret's Big-Picture Predictions
The Beret's Big-Picture Predictions
As a self-important, self-appointed pundit, I'd be amiss if I didn't commit and make some predictions. So I've put my thinking beret on and handicapped Iowa's big races.
Iowa Presidential: Obama by at least 12 percent, with negligible third party voting (no candidate above 1 percent). The big mystery is why John McCain threw so much personal time into Iowa so late in the game. There was no way he could make up for the months of personal attention Obama showered on the state at caucus time, and for Iowan's special pride in putting Obama on the road to the nomination. And a handful of September and October visits can't make up for two caucus cycles of Screw Iowa contempt for the caucuses and hostility to ethanol.
US Senate: Harkin 59, Reed 41. Steve King might have been able to pull off a scorched earth, "Tokyo Rose of al-Qaida" campaign against Tom Harkin, but Chris Reed was just invisible. Now granted, I live in the People's Republic of Johnson County, but we are still in the top ten in number of registered Republicans just on sheer population. I've seen a lot of McCain and Miller-Meeks signs, but only one Reed sign. And that was outside of Republican headquarters. That Reed, with no money and undercut by his own party, will break 40 percent will shock some observers. But 40 percent is just the rock solid vote for Not Tom Harkin.
Incumbents will sweep the U.S. House races. Republican Dave Hartsuch's percentage in the 1st District will be the lowest of the ten major party nominees, lower than Democrat Rob Hubler's in the 5th. The most publicity Hartsuch has gotten in the late stages of the campaign was getting snubbed, and then complaining about it with a bizarre "John McCain is too pro-gay" theme, when McCain visited Davenport. But Hartsuch has raised his profile on the right for the inevitable primary challenge he'll see in 2010 for his state Senate seat. That'll be one of the landmark battles in the Iowa GOP's ongoing battle--call it a holy war--over its direction.
Oh, yeah, I forgot the incumbent. Bruce Braley will continue to entrench himself in the district. This race would have been more entertaining if 2006 Pirate Party candidate James Hill had run again.
I've seen no evidence that Mariannette Miller-Meeks has a real shot in the 2nd District outside of wishful thinking in the Iowa Republican blogosphere. Sure, sleeper races happen sometimes--like Loebsack did two years ago. But you mean to tell me than in a banner Democratic year, with with the top of the ticket a Democrat who's singularly popular in Iowa facing a Republican who's singularly unpopular, and the state's senior Democrat facing a nonentity, that a Republican who's on no national Races To Watch list is going to win in a blue district? Even Loebsack, the ultimate sleeper candidate, was on the radar at the end, and that was in a year when the tide was moving with his party, not in the opposite direction that Miller-Meeks faces.
Miller-Meeks' partisans will argue that she was also a come-from behind underdog in the primary against Peter Teahen. True, but a couple weeks out there were signs that Teahen was in trouble. Not here. MMM will lose, but will walk away with more credibility than Hartsuch.
Independent Brian White's "parties are bad" message failed to catch on, but may pull a couple percent that would otherwise have gone to Miller-Meeks. Wendy Barth of the Greens pursued a holistic, low-key "sustainability" campaign when a hard-left appeal to the zero-fund the war, Impeach Now! crowd might have been more effective. (Question for Barth, who ran statewide in 2006 for governor: Why this race? Why not the higher profile contest against Harkin? The Greens opposed Harkin in 2002, but this year it's just a two-way race.)
The 3rd District is the Republican's lost opportunity this cycle. Leonard Boswell continues to underperform in what 1) should be a safe district given his seniority and the 3rd's partisan leanings and 2 ) could elect a more progressive Democrat than rural Blue Dog Boswell. Primary challenger Ed Fallon had the right message but proved to be the wrong messenger. The "Nader, Nader, Nader" refrain over Fallon's repudiated, eight-year-old presidential vote got tiresome, but worked with Democratic primary voters. (Question: Should Obama win the presidency, especially if he carries Florida, will Democrats finally let go of their obsessive hatred of Ralph Nader?)
Editorial boards dance around the underlying issues of Boswell's age and health. The Des Moines Register made an extremely weak "endorsement" that called for a last term pledge, and the Cedar Rapids Gazette endorsed Schmett for the same reason. There's got to be a lot of behind the scenes angling going on in Polk County, but no Democrat other than Fallon seems to want to openly tell Leonard it's time to hang it up. Look for Republican Kim Schmett to land in the low, maybe mid, 40s and surprise people... and look for nothing to happen after that, as a generation of Des Moines pols wait for Boswell to retire or otherwise leave office.
The 4th District is the only Iowa race on the fringes of the national Races To Watch lists, but Becky Greenwald will fall just short. Tom Latham hasn't angered people the way Steve King has, and he saw Greenwald's challenge and the bad Republican year coming and adapted in time. Call it 53-47 Latham, and give the Sore Loser Of The Year award to Democratic primary candidate William Meyers. His bizarre, on-again off-again, on the ballot then write-in race has cost him any credibility. (But note to party activists: give long-shot primary contenders fair treatment. Meyers complained that he was denied access to central committees, and that fueled his post-primary efforts. Ten minutes of time wasted on a rambling speech at a party meeting can save you months of headaches like this.)
Just as Republicans are unrealistic in the 2nd District, Democrats are also indulging in wishful thinking with Rob Hubler in the 5th District, simply because they love to hate Steve King so much. But as Douglas Burns notes, Hubler had hoped to catch a net-driven fundraising and publicity wave based on King's frequent and deliberate outrageous comments. That's what happened in Minnesota's 6th District, where Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg is poised to knock off first-term Republican Michele Bachmann. But it just didn't happen for Hubler.
Closer to home, look for Democrats to gain a few seats in both houses of the Legislature. The Iowa GOP is throwing everything they have into House races and a few Senate races (just watch TV for the negative ad evidence), so there may be one or two counter-trend GOP pickups to cushion their losses. My pick for the big upset: Frank Best over Tom Sands in Louisa County based House 87.
Democrats are within reach of two-thirds in the Senate, which would mean Republicans would lose their de facto veto over Governor Culver's appointments--IF Democrats stick with the governor. But those intrigues will give us something to talk about this winter.
As a self-important, self-appointed pundit, I'd be amiss if I didn't commit and make some predictions. So I've put my thinking beret on and handicapped Iowa's big races.
Iowa Presidential: Obama by at least 12 percent, with negligible third party voting (no candidate above 1 percent). The big mystery is why John McCain threw so much personal time into Iowa so late in the game. There was no way he could make up for the months of personal attention Obama showered on the state at caucus time, and for Iowan's special pride in putting Obama on the road to the nomination. And a handful of September and October visits can't make up for two caucus cycles of Screw Iowa contempt for the caucuses and hostility to ethanol.US Senate: Harkin 59, Reed 41. Steve King might have been able to pull off a scorched earth, "Tokyo Rose of al-Qaida" campaign against Tom Harkin, but Chris Reed was just invisible. Now granted, I live in the People's Republic of Johnson County, but we are still in the top ten in number of registered Republicans just on sheer population. I've seen a lot of McCain and Miller-Meeks signs, but only one Reed sign. And that was outside of Republican headquarters. That Reed, with no money and undercut by his own party, will break 40 percent will shock some observers. But 40 percent is just the rock solid vote for Not Tom Harkin.
Incumbents will sweep the U.S. House races. Republican Dave Hartsuch's percentage in the 1st District will be the lowest of the ten major party nominees, lower than Democrat Rob Hubler's in the 5th. The most publicity Hartsuch has gotten in the late stages of the campaign was getting snubbed, and then complaining about it with a bizarre "John McCain is too pro-gay" theme, when McCain visited Davenport. But Hartsuch has raised his profile on the right for the inevitable primary challenge he'll see in 2010 for his state Senate seat. That'll be one of the landmark battles in the Iowa GOP's ongoing battle--call it a holy war--over its direction.
Oh, yeah, I forgot the incumbent. Bruce Braley will continue to entrench himself in the district. This race would have been more entertaining if 2006 Pirate Party candidate James Hill had run again.
I've seen no evidence that Mariannette Miller-Meeks has a real shot in the 2nd District outside of wishful thinking in the Iowa Republican blogosphere. Sure, sleeper races happen sometimes--like Loebsack did two years ago. But you mean to tell me than in a banner Democratic year, with with the top of the ticket a Democrat who's singularly popular in Iowa facing a Republican who's singularly unpopular, and the state's senior Democrat facing a nonentity, that a Republican who's on no national Races To Watch list is going to win in a blue district? Even Loebsack, the ultimate sleeper candidate, was on the radar at the end, and that was in a year when the tide was moving with his party, not in the opposite direction that Miller-Meeks faces.
Miller-Meeks' partisans will argue that she was also a come-from behind underdog in the primary against Peter Teahen. True, but a couple weeks out there were signs that Teahen was in trouble. Not here. MMM will lose, but will walk away with more credibility than Hartsuch.
Independent Brian White's "parties are bad" message failed to catch on, but may pull a couple percent that would otherwise have gone to Miller-Meeks. Wendy Barth of the Greens pursued a holistic, low-key "sustainability" campaign when a hard-left appeal to the zero-fund the war, Impeach Now! crowd might have been more effective. (Question for Barth, who ran statewide in 2006 for governor: Why this race? Why not the higher profile contest against Harkin? The Greens opposed Harkin in 2002, but this year it's just a two-way race.)
The 3rd District is the Republican's lost opportunity this cycle. Leonard Boswell continues to underperform in what 1) should be a safe district given his seniority and the 3rd's partisan leanings and 2 ) could elect a more progressive Democrat than rural Blue Dog Boswell. Primary challenger Ed Fallon had the right message but proved to be the wrong messenger. The "Nader, Nader, Nader" refrain over Fallon's repudiated, eight-year-old presidential vote got tiresome, but worked with Democratic primary voters. (Question: Should Obama win the presidency, especially if he carries Florida, will Democrats finally let go of their obsessive hatred of Ralph Nader?)
Editorial boards dance around the underlying issues of Boswell's age and health. The Des Moines Register made an extremely weak "endorsement" that called for a last term pledge, and the Cedar Rapids Gazette endorsed Schmett for the same reason. There's got to be a lot of behind the scenes angling going on in Polk County, but no Democrat other than Fallon seems to want to openly tell Leonard it's time to hang it up. Look for Republican Kim Schmett to land in the low, maybe mid, 40s and surprise people... and look for nothing to happen after that, as a generation of Des Moines pols wait for Boswell to retire or otherwise leave office.
The 4th District is the only Iowa race on the fringes of the national Races To Watch lists, but Becky Greenwald will fall just short. Tom Latham hasn't angered people the way Steve King has, and he saw Greenwald's challenge and the bad Republican year coming and adapted in time. Call it 53-47 Latham, and give the Sore Loser Of The Year award to Democratic primary candidate William Meyers. His bizarre, on-again off-again, on the ballot then write-in race has cost him any credibility. (But note to party activists: give long-shot primary contenders fair treatment. Meyers complained that he was denied access to central committees, and that fueled his post-primary efforts. Ten minutes of time wasted on a rambling speech at a party meeting can save you months of headaches like this.)
Just as Republicans are unrealistic in the 2nd District, Democrats are also indulging in wishful thinking with Rob Hubler in the 5th District, simply because they love to hate Steve King so much. But as Douglas Burns notes, Hubler had hoped to catch a net-driven fundraising and publicity wave based on King's frequent and deliberate outrageous comments. That's what happened in Minnesota's 6th District, where Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg is poised to knock off first-term Republican Michele Bachmann. But it just didn't happen for Hubler.
Closer to home, look for Democrats to gain a few seats in both houses of the Legislature. The Iowa GOP is throwing everything they have into House races and a few Senate races (just watch TV for the negative ad evidence), so there may be one or two counter-trend GOP pickups to cushion their losses. My pick for the big upset: Frank Best over Tom Sands in Louisa County based House 87.
Democrats are within reach of two-thirds in the Senate, which would mean Republicans would lose their de facto veto over Governor Culver's appointments--IF Democrats stick with the governor. But those intrigues will give us something to talk about this winter.
Ballot challenges could shift election
Election Could Be Decided Monday
If John McCain is going to win Iowa, it will likely happen Monday.
And if Barack Obama is going to win Iowa, it's already happened. Depending on how you look at it, it happened in the past six weeks, or it happened starting two years ago.
Record early voting, election day voter registration, and ballot challenges may have a bigger impact on Iowa's seven electoral votes than Tuesday's election day voting.
Iowa has seen unprecedented levels of early voting since ballots became available Sept. 25. Through Saturday, 553,669 voters had voted early or requested mailed ballots, and 481,179 ballots had been returned. Democrats hold a 100,000 vote edge in requests. Early voting continues through Monday.
Absentee ballot boards start the work of processing these ballots Monday, opening envelopes and dealing with challenges to absentee ballots. That's the way McCain can improve his percentages today: through the Republican Party's program of "ballot integrity" or "vote suppression," depending on your perspective.
Republicans issued unprecedented challenges to absentee ballots in 2004, concentrating on urban and academic counties. In liberal Johnson County, over 2,000 ballots were challenged for mistakes such as bad addresses and missing signatures. Of the challenged and provisional ballots that were counted, John Kerry won 77 percent, better than any single election day precinct in the county.
Democrats took note, and the seeds of an Obama victory may have been planted two years ago when the Democrats took over the statehouse trifecta of governor, state House and state Senate. The Democratic majorities quickly passed election law changes for Governor Chet Culver to sign.
Most significantly, Iowa joined neighbors Wisconsin and Minnesota with election day voter registration. It's hard to tell what the impact will be, but states with election day registration have the highest turnout in the nation, and young people use the process most frequently. Both those trends would help Obama.
The Democratic legislature and Culver also tightened the laws on ballot challenges. Each challenge must be presented individually, rather than as a group or "blanket" challenge, and the law restricts challenges to a few items such as citizenship, felony status, and residence. A voter cannot be challenged for registering or changing address on election day. Challengers must provide name, address and phone number, and are subject to misdemeanor charges for frivolous challenges.
In another legal change, auditors are directed to open the outer, "return carrier" envelope of absentee ballots when they arrive in the mail and check the inner "affidavit envelope" for problems like missing signatures. The change gives voters a chance to fix their own mistakes. In 2004, the outer envelopes weren't opened till the day before the election.
The Democratic Party also adapted to the 2004 absentee challenges by doorknocking high-turnover areas like college towns later. That way, fewer voters would be likely to move after having requested a ballot from an old address, thus subjecting themselves to a potential challenge. Democrats also steered voters toward more in-person early voting and less voting by mail.
The trend toward heavier early voting may produce some anomalous precinct results. With so many Democrats out of the election day voting pool, Republicans may "win" some precincts they haven't before. Polk County saw the dynamic a few years back in a Democratic supervisor primary, where Gene Phillips won every election day precinct, but John Mauro had an exceptional early voting program and won 80 percent of the absentee vote to win the nomination. He lost the election day vote because his people had already voted.
That happened at the presidential level in 2004. John Kerry led the Iowa absentee vote by 70,000 votes, but Geirge W. Bush carried election day by 80,000 to win the state by 10,000.
Republicans may look at the election day results, compare them to the absentee vote, and cry foul. They may already be laying the groundwork for that with the national attention to problem voter registratiuons collected by the ACORN community organization. But in Iowa, we'll be able to look at the details. For the first time, absentee results will be released by precinct, rather than lumped into one county-wide "special precinct." Political numbers geeks will be able to look at absentee results and election day results side by side to check the effectiveness of their absentee ballot programs in minute detail.
Casual election watchers Tuesday night may also see Iowa's totals narrowing as the votes come in. Absentee totals, which will favor Democrats, tend to be released earlier. The election day precincts, which will lean Republican because Democrats disproportionately voted earlier, will trickle in later.
If John McCain is going to win Iowa, it will likely happen Monday.And if Barack Obama is going to win Iowa, it's already happened. Depending on how you look at it, it happened in the past six weeks, or it happened starting two years ago.
Record early voting, election day voter registration, and ballot challenges may have a bigger impact on Iowa's seven electoral votes than Tuesday's election day voting.
Iowa has seen unprecedented levels of early voting since ballots became available Sept. 25. Through Saturday, 553,669 voters had voted early or requested mailed ballots, and 481,179 ballots had been returned. Democrats hold a 100,000 vote edge in requests. Early voting continues through Monday.
Absentee ballot boards start the work of processing these ballots Monday, opening envelopes and dealing with challenges to absentee ballots. That's the way McCain can improve his percentages today: through the Republican Party's program of "ballot integrity" or "vote suppression," depending on your perspective.
Republicans issued unprecedented challenges to absentee ballots in 2004, concentrating on urban and academic counties. In liberal Johnson County, over 2,000 ballots were challenged for mistakes such as bad addresses and missing signatures. Of the challenged and provisional ballots that were counted, John Kerry won 77 percent, better than any single election day precinct in the county.
Democrats took note, and the seeds of an Obama victory may have been planted two years ago when the Democrats took over the statehouse trifecta of governor, state House and state Senate. The Democratic majorities quickly passed election law changes for Governor Chet Culver to sign.
Most significantly, Iowa joined neighbors Wisconsin and Minnesota with election day voter registration. It's hard to tell what the impact will be, but states with election day registration have the highest turnout in the nation, and young people use the process most frequently. Both those trends would help Obama.
The Democratic legislature and Culver also tightened the laws on ballot challenges. Each challenge must be presented individually, rather than as a group or "blanket" challenge, and the law restricts challenges to a few items such as citizenship, felony status, and residence. A voter cannot be challenged for registering or changing address on election day. Challengers must provide name, address and phone number, and are subject to misdemeanor charges for frivolous challenges.
In another legal change, auditors are directed to open the outer, "return carrier" envelope of absentee ballots when they arrive in the mail and check the inner "affidavit envelope" for problems like missing signatures. The change gives voters a chance to fix their own mistakes. In 2004, the outer envelopes weren't opened till the day before the election.
The Democratic Party also adapted to the 2004 absentee challenges by doorknocking high-turnover areas like college towns later. That way, fewer voters would be likely to move after having requested a ballot from an old address, thus subjecting themselves to a potential challenge. Democrats also steered voters toward more in-person early voting and less voting by mail.
The trend toward heavier early voting may produce some anomalous precinct results. With so many Democrats out of the election day voting pool, Republicans may "win" some precincts they haven't before. Polk County saw the dynamic a few years back in a Democratic supervisor primary, where Gene Phillips won every election day precinct, but John Mauro had an exceptional early voting program and won 80 percent of the absentee vote to win the nomination. He lost the election day vote because his people had already voted.
That happened at the presidential level in 2004. John Kerry led the Iowa absentee vote by 70,000 votes, but Geirge W. Bush carried election day by 80,000 to win the state by 10,000.
Republicans may look at the election day results, compare them to the absentee vote, and cry foul. They may already be laying the groundwork for that with the national attention to problem voter registratiuons collected by the ACORN community organization. But in Iowa, we'll be able to look at the details. For the first time, absentee results will be released by precinct, rather than lumped into one county-wide "special precinct." Political numbers geeks will be able to look at absentee results and election day results side by side to check the effectiveness of their absentee ballot programs in minute detail.
Casual election watchers Tuesday night may also see Iowa's totals narrowing as the votes come in. Absentee totals, which will favor Democrats, tend to be released earlier. The election day precincts, which will lean Republican because Democrats disproportionately voted earlier, will trickle in later.
1 Kasım 2008 Cumartesi
McCain on SNL
McCain completes the Kubler-Ross stages
Bargaining
Anger
Denial
And finally, on Saturday Night Live, Acceptance. The self-deprecating ease of a man who knows what is going to happen on Tuesday and has come to a personal peace with that.
Walter Mondale said that, when he knew a couple weeks out that there was no way to win, that he wanted to finish the campaign the way he would want his grandchildren to see him. I hope John McCain does the same with the last couple days.
Bargaining
Anger
Denial
And finally, on Saturday Night Live, Acceptance. The self-deprecating ease of a man who knows what is going to happen on Tuesday and has come to a personal peace with that.
Walter Mondale said that, when he knew a couple weeks out that there was no way to win, that he wanted to finish the campaign the way he would want his grandchildren to see him. I hope John McCain does the same with the last couple days.
Louisiana, Montana In Play
My Bold Prediction: Obama Takes Louisiana and Montana
Yes, I said Barack wins the Bayou and the Big Sky. No, I haven't fallen off the wagon. A WWL poll shows Louisiana at three points -- McCain 43, Obama 40.
But there's an extra factor, as Richard Winger at Ballot Access News notes: Ron Paul is on the ballot. The label is "Louisiana Taxpayers Party." Not to be confused with the old US Taxpayers Party, which is now the Constitution Party.
"Constitution for President" is the label over which Paul appears on the ballot in Montana. In this county (pdf) he's even first on the ballot. I've never bought the idea that ballot order makes a difference, but studies say it does. Anyway, Montana's popular governor Brian Schwitzer is on the ballot. The US Senate race is wacky: Republican nominee Bob Kelleher is an 85 year old ex-Green who has also run as a Democrat in some of his sixteen past races (lifetime record: 2-14 including the Republican primary win in a splintered six-way field) and whose main platform plank is switching the US to a parliamentary system.
Needless to say, he's not getting much support from the GOP regulars.
Combine the Paul, Schweitzer and Kelleher factors... and put Montana in play, too. The whole Canadian border could be blue except for Boundary County, Idaho where the militia movement used to hang out.
Yes, I said Barack wins the Bayou and the Big Sky. No, I haven't fallen off the wagon. A WWL poll shows Louisiana at three points -- McCain 43, Obama 40.
But there's an extra factor, as Richard Winger at Ballot Access News notes: Ron Paul is on the ballot. The label is "Louisiana Taxpayers Party." Not to be confused with the old US Taxpayers Party, which is now the Constitution Party.
"Constitution for President" is the label over which Paul appears on the ballot in Montana. In this county (pdf) he's even first on the ballot. I've never bought the idea that ballot order makes a difference, but studies say it does. Anyway, Montana's popular governor Brian Schwitzer is on the ballot. The US Senate race is wacky: Republican nominee Bob Kelleher is an 85 year old ex-Green who has also run as a Democrat in some of his sixteen past races (lifetime record: 2-14 including the Republican primary win in a splintered six-way field) and whose main platform plank is switching the US to a parliamentary system.
Kelleher favors enormous, FDR-style government work programs to reduce poverty; he wants to nationalize the American oil and gas industries and supports government-run, socialized medicine.
Needless to say, he's not getting much support from the GOP regulars.
Combine the Paul, Schweitzer and Kelleher factors... and put Montana in play, too. The whole Canadian border could be blue except for Boundary County, Idaho where the militia movement used to hang out.
Saturday Resources
Saturday Resources
It's HyVee Saturday here in the People's Republic, so not much time to write. Here's some resources to dig through:
Chuck Todd and Ron Gunzburger have state by state guides to Tuesday. Todd on Iowa: "The state GOP's health can be summed up by the lack of a challenge they've given to the usually vulnerable Tom Harkin. In fact, Iowa is similar to a lot of battleground states where McCain is struggling; the state’s Republican infrastructure is just a mess." See Iowa's Republican blogosphere for the details.
Swing State Project has a handy map of poll closing times, in which Iowa seems to join the Mountain Time Zone.
Charles Blow at the NYT has a timeline of McCain's demise over the past two weeks. Killer line, soon to be picked up by a northern moderate (if one can be found in the post-Leach era) as the GOP rebuilds: "The appeal of the Grand Old Party needs to be broader than the audience of the Grand Ole Opry."
It's HyVee Saturday here in the People's Republic, so not much time to write. Here's some resources to dig through:
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