The Taking Bachmann Seriously Thread

The Taking Bachmann Seriously Thread

A convergence of stories last couple days taking Michele Bachmann seriously not just as a potential Iowa winner, but as a possible nominee.

Most significantly, Nate Silver weighs in with lots of graphs and numbers (being Nate Silver). The whole analysis is worth it but the tl;dr version is:

Imagine that Ms. Bachmann has won the Iowa caucuses while Mr. Romney has taken the New Hampshire primary, and the nomination is essentially up for grabs between them. As the contest shifts to a key state like Ohio or Pennsylvania, suppose that conservative Republicans split 60-30 in Ms. Bachmann’s favor (with a few voters opting for a hanger-on like Ron Paul), while moderate Republicans go 80-15 for Mr. Romney. Who is going to win?

Turnout would be decisive. If two conservative Republicans cast ballots for every moderate Republican — roughly the ratio in 2008 — Mr. Romney would prevail by a couple of points. But if the turnout looks more like 2010, and there are three conservative Republicans at the polls for every moderate Republican, Ms. Bachmann would win by about six percentage points...

Jonathan Chait adds:

Many reporters have noted that a one-on-one matchup between Romney and Bachmann is Romney's dream scenario. That's true -- it's his best chance to have the establishment rally behind him. I haven't seen them mention that it's also Bachmann's dream scenario -- she gets to face off against an establishment candidate totally unacceptable to large segments of the party base.

Now, the far greater danger to Bachmann is that she faces off against somebody other than Romney -- say, Rick Perry, or possibly even Paul Ryan -- who can appeal to right-wingers and party elites as well.

Bachmann was the fastest candidate yesterday to sign off on the famIly leader pledge, so fast she accidentally stabed Chuck Hurley in the hand with her pen. Most of the rest wimped out with no comments or mutterings about "studying it." Jon Huntsman totally punted by making a pledge not to sign pledges, adding: "I already told your whole state to piss off, so why do I care about what some guy who can't win a primary there thinks?" for good measure. (That's not a direct quote, but a reasonably likely transcript of the inner monologue.) Only Ron Paul had the gonads to say he had "reservations."

But back to Bachmann, it seems there is method to the seeming madness of her fast and loose interpretation of historic "facts." Spencer Critchley:

While Sarah Palin's eye-darting improvs fairly scream "I didn't do my homework," in all likelihood Bachmann did do her homework on this one. It's just that she's reading from a different text than most of us...

The rewriting of history is a natural, and even unavoidable, consequence of the absolutism on both religion and the Constitution that characterizes Tea Party Republicanism, of which Bachmann is now the figurehead. Such absolutism requires believing that the founding text of your creed is complete and perfect, and that its authors were infallible. When reality and belief collide, reality has to give way.

So if the Founders owned slaves, and the Constitution said that was fine, there are only a few choices:

1. Slavery actually wasn't all that bad, or
2. The Founders must have been trying to end slavery, and/or
3. There were more Founding Fathers than you think: we need to include that child prodigy John Quincy Adams.

Bachmann Live Iowa City Bluebird Diner

Bachmann Live Iowa City Bluebird Diner

7:49 AM at a crowded Bluebird Diner awaiting Bachmann. Why here instead of the traditional campaign stop, the within-sight Hamburg Inn? It was Reagan Himself who started that tradition...

Looks like they overnighted here in Iowa City; saw the BAchmann Bus parked in front of the Sheraton on the way over. Looks to be 50 or so here, mostly an older crowd. 8 AM Saturday is kind of a Siberia for the Iowa City schedule. We have CNN cameras here but I don't see local cameras.

I find myself seated next to congresional candidate John Archer, who helped me out by plugging in the laptop. Archer says he mailed in the FEC paperwork yesterday. He's planning a formal announcement 7/13 and he's a s yet undecided on the presidential race.

Crowd up to 75ish (standing room, with some folks at the tables outside) at straight up 8. Bus not in sight yet but there is a large moving van. First event on the public schedule; I thing Rs care more about timeliness than Ds. I don't recognize any other interlopers. Going sans beret today in hopes of actually looking professional.

The poor DI guy next to me asked the wrong Member Of The Public for an opinion and is trapped in a monologue that is now in at least minute ten touching on religion, ethnicity, marital fidelity and who knows what. (807 now) The trickle in of latecomers has about stopped. NBC national camera sighted, but still no local TV.

8:11 and local GOP chair Bob Anderson is here (possible sign of bus movement?) 8:13 and the monologue to the DI reporter continues, moving on to judges.

Now up to 8:19. Even monologer is running out of things to say. 8:24... I should be working the room to get some Real People reacts but my mobility is limited. Crowd holding steady at about 75.

BUS HERE 8:29



8:34 The moving van was holding the spot! Bachman exits but to tune of Elvis singing "The Promised Land," (NOT Tom Petty!) State Sen. Kent Sorenson is with her. "She's a full spectrum conservative" he tells me to explain his support.

Full fledged candidate/camera/public scrum is on at 840. I got a brief handshake and overheard the chitchat: some mentions of Born In Waterloo, good rapport with crowd, lots of time with kids. Marcus (Mr. Bachmann) is working it too; confirms they stayed in town last night, he and a daughter caught some jazz fest. Happy it was free. (I resist urge to note the tax dollars we spend...)


Bachmann with local Republican John Dane.

8:48. MB still working crowd. Dropping "be sure to get out to the straw poll in Ames" a lot. Moving is difficult. Additional press and staff mean probably about 100 bodies total. She's autographing everything in sight: a hat, a cardboard coffee cup.

Sorenson sticking close to the candidate; Marcus working adjacent tables. My GOP pal Deb Thornton says she's uncommitted, but then offers praise for Herman Cain.

Rumor is this is a no speech meet and greet; feels that way. 8:55. Lots of picture posing. Looks like a retail, lock those straw poll votes in event. Looks like mostly party activists here. Doesn't matter how liberal Iowa City is; this is about the people in the room.

9:09 and the Bachmanns have been having an extended conversation with the owner and, moreso, the owner's kids. Everyone is a fan of Angry Birds. They toast, the kids with cocoa and the grownups with coffee: "To Iowa!" Smile rarely leaves face except for Sincere Listening Face.

Looks like actually ordering breakfast as of 9:14. I check in with the traveling staffer who's not sure Why Not Hamburg and when I introduce myself says "oh you're that liberal guy." So I might as well have worn the beret... meanwhile, Republicans are asking ME if there's a speech and the CNN guy is doing a live standup.



9:18. CNN interviews the candidate live while she hold a fork with a bite of scrambled eggs. Most of her reply is about How Important Iowa Is. The live shot wraps and she feeds the bite of eggs to one of the kids (her daughter it turns out). Crowd dwindling a bit.

Breakfast done by 9:24, back to working it. Due in Cedar Rapids in six minutes, gonna be a behind schedule day.

No speech; out the door at 9:32. The pattern continued: lots of chit chat about Iowa roots. Talks to Archer a couple minutes; says "we'll help you." Daughter takes breakfast remains to go. Bus pulling out 9:35. Will update later with pictures.