McCain Drops in Iowa Electronic Markets Post-Debate
John McCain's political stock dropped--literally--after Friday's debate with Barack Obama, or so investors on the Iowa Electronic Markets think.
At 9 a.m. Monday, McCain's shares were trading for 32 cents on the IEM's Winner Take All presidential market, meaning traders give the McCain-Palin ticket only 32 percent chance of winning. On Friday, before the debate, McCain was trading at 37 cents.
Shares for the Democratic Obama-Biden ticket were at 67 cents Monday, up from 62 cents Friday. The Winner Take All market pays a dollar per winning share and nothing for a losing share.
The University of Iowa College of Business project, in which traders use real money to measure candidates' chances, has had a strong predictive track record since it started in 1988.
In the Vote Share market, which pays a penny per percentage point, McCain was selling for 47.3 cents this morning, which means investors believe he will receive 47.3 percent of the two-party popular vote in November. Obama was selling for 53.8 cents on the Vote Share market. Shares in the Vote Share market pay in proportion to the percentage.
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder