Caucus Date Leapfrog Update: SC GOP Announcing Date -- In NH

Caucus Date Leapfrog Update: SC GOP Announcing Date -- In NH

The Manchester Union-Leader is reporting that the South Carolina Republican chair will announce his state's GOP primary date on Thursday -- at the New Hampshire state capitol.

Observers including the New Hampshire Republican chair expect the date to be Jan. 22 - the currently scheduled New Hampshire date. Talking Points Memo calls the New Hampshire-based announcement "a sign of chivalry to New Hampshire's first-primary tradition."

In South Carolina, the parties set their own primary dates. South Carolina Democrats are still scheduled for Jan. 29, and according to a Democratic Party agreement are supposed to have that date to themselves as the fourth contest. But the GOP-controlled Florida legislature moved that state's primary to Jan. 29. Florida Democrats are working two tracks: asking the state legislature to return to the previously scheduled Feb. 5 date, and also asking the DNC for an exception to party rules. With an exception, Florida could keep its early date without suffering the penalty of lost delegates the DNC threatens for states that violate the carefully negotiated calendar.

South Carolina Republicans are concerned about preserving their "first in the South" date, prompting the likely move to Jan. 22. The South Carolina GOP played the lead role in the round of leapfrog in 1999 that led Iowa to reschedule the 2000 caucuses twice, moving from Feb. 7 to the eventual Jan. 24 date. South Carolina GOP chair Katon Dawson told the Union Leader this year's move is "prompted by a presidential process that has gone afoul.”

This could trigger a New Hampshire move to Jan. 15. The secretary of state is empowered to set the date himself, and state law requires New Hampshire to hold its primary one week before any "similar contest."

The unenforceable self-declared supremacy of one state's law over another may someday be an interesting court battle. But here in the real world, Iowa is bound by a similar law. The state parties set the Iowa caucus date, but Democrats and Republicans have cooperated and shared the same date since 1976. The likely Iowa move would be bumping back a week, from the currently scheduled Jan. 14 caucus date to Jan. 7.