A must read if you're a junkie for political demographics:
The newer, outer suburbs are almost all overwhelmingly white, wealthier than the rest of the country and conservative-leaning, traits that lend themselves to the Republicans’ current dominance of their congressional districts. The inner suburbs have a more urban feel, both in their atmospherics and demographics, with more ethnic diversity and a greater range of income. The Democrats, whose strongest congressional base remains in the nation’s 90 urban districts, also do well in neighboring inner suburbia, just not well enough to offset the GOP’s looming advantage at the metropolitan edges...
And they conveniently provide a target list, half of which are in two states:
In the 14 suburban districts where voters “split” their ballots last year by voting for a House Republican but favoring Democrat Kerry for president, the House members are Mark Kirk of Illinois; Michael G. Fitzpatrick, Curt Weldon, Jim Gerlach and Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania; Rob Simmons, Christopher Shays and Nancy L. Johnson of Connecticut; E. Clay Shaw Jr. of Florida; Michael N. Castle of Delaware; Bob Beauprez of Colorado; James T. Walsh of New York; Anne M. Northup of Kentucky; and Dave Reichert of Washington.
Connecticut and Pennsylvania each have the governor/senator combo next year. In CT, an unelected GOP governor has her first run of her own, and the Senate race dynamic depends on if someone has the guts to challenge fake Dem Lieberman in a primary.
In PA, Rick Santorum is likely to get knocked off - even internal GOP politics work against him. Potential rivals for the presidency (something is really wrong when a yoyo like Santorum can envision himself as President) would like to see him out of the way, and Trent Lott wants back into leadership. Meanwhile, no serious challengers to Ed Rendell have emerged.
So, if I'm the DCCC, I'd invest some time and effort into House seats in Pennsylvania and, depending on how it shakes out, Connecticut.
Politics
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