Rayhons Gets Primary Challenge

House District 8 Gets Weirder

The Deeth Blog has had its eye on House District 8 since Map Day and just when you think every last bit of drama has been wrung out of Wright County, there's another twist:

A 62-year-old minister announced Friday he will wage a primary election challenge to veteran Republican legislator Henry Rayhons next year.

The Rev. Bob Dishman will make his political debut against Rayhons, 75, who has been in the Iowa House for 16 years.

First of all, whod'a thunk Henry Rayhons would be the one left standing in this district, the only seat with three incumbents on Map Day? He was up against majority leader Linda Upmeyer and former Senate leader and party chair Stew Iverson. Everyone just figured Henry would hang it up.

But then Upmeyer decamped to points north, Rayhons announced, and everyone assumed that Iverson was running in Senate 4.

WRONG! Former quarter-term senator Jim "Back In" Black announced for Senate 4, with Iverson as campaign chair.



The rumor mill says What Up With That may be... Iverson ending his legislative comeback after one term to run for local office?

And now, the district with three legislators on Map Day gets a primary challenger. Is this one of Kim Pearson's recruits?

“The goal should be a smaller, more efficient government and that’s what I intend to accomplish,” said Dishman, pastor of Park Church of Christ in Goldfield.

He said he will focus on conservative values that include supporting pro-life issues and traditional marriage in Iowa.

And Rayhons, while a pretty conservative guy, was on the "wrong" side of that vote I'm using for my scorecard, Pearson's Total Abortion Ban. Pass the popcorn, this'll be fun to watch.

Wasserman Schultz kicks off Iowa Tour

Wasserman Schultz kicks off Iowa Tour



"This is a battleground state and you are going to see us here again and again, from the top of the ticket on down," Democratic National Committee chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz told an Iowa City crowd as she kicked off a weekend long fundraising trip across Iowa.

The Florida congresswoman is following up with events for colleagues Bruce Braley and Leonard Boswell and challenger Christie Vilsack.

Wasserman Schultz said the job of DNC chair is largely messaging, "and I'm no shrinking violet." She was a regular fixture on talk shows through 2008, first for Hillary Clinton and then just as enthusiastically for Barack Obama once the nomination was settled. The president asked Wasserman Schultz to chair the DNC earlier this year, when former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine stepped down to run for U.S. Senate.

Obama "inherited the most problems of any president since FDR and Lincoln," said DWS (I'm going to abbreviate from here on out) "We short circuited the economic decline and began to turn things around. We have to focus on jobs and getting the economy turned around, and we need to pass the president's American Jobs Act. Every aspect of that bill has part proposed by people on both sides."

Loebsack agreed: "It's jobs and the economy. That's what people are talking about. People want us to work where we can with the other side without sacrificing our principles and our districts."

That can be difficult in today's House, said DWS. "It's hard to understand substantively why (Republicans) would oppose the president's bill. They're opposed because it would improve the economy and help re-elect the president. They only care about ONE job: his."

Loebsack credited DWS and other members of a House "30 Something group," which gave end of day House floor speeches in 2005 and 2006, with helping his upset win. ""That 30 Something group deconstructed the Bush administration and laid the groundwork for my victory and the House takeover of 2006."

But DWS cautioned Loebsack supporters gathered at Hy Joseph's west side home, "Let's not get too comfortable. They are coming after him. His district actually lost a couple points of Democratic performance."

DWS acknowledged progressive disappointment during Obama's first term. "I voted for the public option three times," she said, as Loebsack nodded approval. "The Senate wouldn't pass it. But I wasn't going to take my ball and go home without a health care bill, like some people suggested. That's what the other side does."

Loebsack informed DWS that Q & A time is mandatory in Johnson County. Some highlights:

"Don't believe the hype that this is the year that the Republican Party is going to cut into the Jewish vote" in Florida and elsewhere. ""We will make sure the Jewish community turns out strong and turns out for Democrats." DWS also added that swing state Florida's senior citizen community is "not where you want to be for abolishing Medicare."

In the post-Howard Dean era "the 50 state strategy has continued. I'm a huge backer of it not being a top-down approach."

Asked about Democratic messaging as opposed to tea party rhetoric: "The Democratic Party is never going to be the party of simple solutions to complex problems."

"There are 61 seats held by Republicans that were won by either Barack Obama or John Kerry. 47 of them were won by both. We have to win 25 to take back the House."



Also on hand to rally the troops was Iowa Democratic Party chair Sue Dvorsky. Talk invariably turned to the Battle of Marion.

"We heard about it at 8:00 Friday morning," said Dvorsky. We had a field plan for Senate District 18 by 10:00 and a website by noon. The governor didn't even announce the appointment till 5:00."

Loebsack said Linn County Democrats "have talked to Liz Mathis for years trying to get her to run for office."

"I don't think anyone knew the depth of the vitriol and the hatred that would be unleashed" by Obama's election, said Dvorsky. "But the people who lift that heavy load every day know that. The narrowness of the path and the heaviness of the lift is pulling Democrats together."

(Pics look better at Facebook gallery; still suffering from the Hacked Layout Blues)

Florida Official for January 31

Florida Official for January 31

Get ready for January 2 or January 10, Iowans: Florida is officially flouting the rules and going a full five weeks early on January 31. And they have the nerve to point the finger elsewhere:

Lopez Cantera said that if other states hadn't moved their primaries early, Florida would not have been "boxed in" and forced (sic) to move up its date.

"I want to make it very clear out intentions of being fifth have been public for months,'' he said. "The narrative that is going to come out of this will probably be about Florida but it really should be about the other states -- Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona. When they moved their dates they kind of cornered us into this date based on our fully transparent intentions of being fifth in the country."

Matt Strawn was swift to respond:

The consequences of Florida's intransigence must be swift and severe, including the refusal by the RNC to credential or seat any member of Florida's presidential primary date commission at the 2012 RNC convention in Tampa

.
Note that location. Want to get serious, GOP? Start talking about moving that convention.

You know who else shouldn't be seated? The Democrat who made the motion to hold the primary January 3:

The other Democrat on the panel, former Sen. Al Lawson of Tallahassee initially moved to set Jan. 3 as the primary date, arguing that the Florida shouldn't have to "take a back seat to any state. We are a mega state.'' he said. He withdrew the motion.

To their credit, the two other Dems on the 6 R, 3 D panel voted for March 6. the first day allowed under rules agreed to by both parties.

SO what does this do for us? Frontloading HQ offers multiple nightmare scenarios. (Post was written Wednesday; in the interim Georgia has opted to follow the rules and go on March 6.) Also noted:

New Hampshire law, as mentioned above, requires a seven day buffer on either side of its primary. An exception was made in 2007, and another one may have to be made in 2011. Why? Well, the Nevada Republican Party over the summer tethered their caucuses to New Hampshire, requiring that the caucuses be set on the Saturday after New Hampshire. New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner has already said that that would not work for the Granite state.

That exception, of course, was for us going five days before New Hampshire in order to stay in calendar 2008. But Gardner seems pretty adamant about seven days AFTER.

So the best case scenario for Iowa:

January 31: cheaters
January 28: South Carolina, which has done non-Tuesday elections in the past
January 24: Nevada
January 17: New Hampshire
Tuesday, January 10: us. Monday January 9 is the BCS championship which probably x's that date.

But if South Carolina insists on a Tuesday, we get:

January 31: cheaters
January 24: South Carolina
January 17: Nevada
January 10: New Hampshire
Monday, January 2: us, or possibly Tuesday the 3rd.

South Carolina won't announce anything today.

Also in the mess; Missouri didn't manage to get its law changed it got caught up between the Democratic governor and GOP legislature over photo ID and other such issues. So they're on February 7, which was the 2008 Super Tuesday. But they've made it a no-delegate beauty contest and will have caucuses in March. And with Florida cheating so much worse, Missouri is no longer a factor in the early state dates.

And I never trust Michigan (currently February 28) until everyone's date is 100% locked in.

You know who we have to blame for this? The Democrats who refused to enforce the party rules last time. Michigan and Florida should have been booted from the convention. Then states would be following the rules this year. Dems don't have much say in it this year, but it's worth a mention to Debbie Wasserman Schultz if you run into her this weekend.

No Winners in Coup Attempt

No Winners in Republican Coup Attempt

That didn't last long:

A state Republican senator’s call for a vote to oust his party’s leader who is on a 37th-anniversary trip in Italy with his wife has been canceled.

The meeting was called for today by Sen. Bill Dix, R-Shell Rock.

Dix, who has not returned calls this week and this morning seeking comment, did not specifically say in the e-mail that he is seeking to knock Senate Republican Leader Paul McKinley of Chariton from the top spot but his peers have said that is their understanding of his intention.

Thus the third coup attempt against a sitting Iowa Senate Republican leader in five years has ended with a whimper rather than a bang. Craig Robinson at TheIowaRepublican says the attempt failed because Dix was "unable to secure the necessary votes to oust McKinley."

Dix forgot the Ralph Waldo Emerson Rule about coup d'etats: "When you strike at a king, you must kill him." If he didn't have the votes, he shouldn't have called the meeting. (Or DID he have the votes, only to lose them when it went public?) The very public airing of dissatisfaction, followed by the failure, leaves the very ambitious Dix in a weakened position.

But it's not a win for McKinley either, as his own weak position is exposed. Robinson again: "As the leader of his caucus, he is the number one fundraiser Republicans have, yet he’s vacationing, and major Republican donors have not heard from the Senate Republican Leader in months." There's a persistent rumor that big money is waiting to come into the Iowa Senate GOP's coffers, but it's contingent on new leadership.

One more gem from Robinson:

"There is no way to sugarcoat what has transpired in the last few days. If you don’t realize how dysfunctional things are, all you need to know is that the Republican House Leaders are leading the effort in Senate District 18, not Senate leadership."

Some of that's an accident of geography, as half of Senate 18 is the district of Speaker Kraig Paulsen. But some of that is disengagement by the vacationing McKinley. In fairness, this is supposed to be off-season for legislative elections, but when you're in leadership and a situation like this occurs, you need to change plans.

So Republicans are off to a bumpy start in the Battle of Marion. First, Senate 18 Republicans nominated the weakest and least well known of three candidates, now this. Meanwhile, Democrats are united, unanimously nominating a 100% name ID candidate, former TV anchor Liz Mathis, last night.

Caucus seasons invariably divide parties, as usually stable alliances are splintered by the high stakes of the presidential contest,. But there's more going on here, and this week's events are just one more piece of evidence that the internal strife in the Iowa GOP is at seam-bursting levels.

Day Four Of The Ugly

Day Four Of The Ugly

The unintended Deeth Blog redesign continues onto a fourth day, just as I get a big shout-out in the Daily Iowan. New visitors: it's supposed to look a lot nicer than this.

Democrats formally nominated Liz Mathis for the Battle of Marion last night. Missed this a few days back: right blog Under The Golden Gnome (heh) calls the GOP nomination of Cindy Golding a "debacle" :

When it is abundantly clear that you need to swing for the fences to win the game for the home team (Pachyderms), make sure you don’t grab the bat nicknamed “Batshitcrazy”.

Great roundup in the Manchester Union Leader on New Hampshire reaction to Florida's calendar cheating. An infight among the official early states:

Nevada Republicans during the summer quietly decided to hold their caucus on “the Saturday after New Hampshire,” regardless of when that occurs.

“So if New Hampshire moves, we move,” wrote Nevada GOP Chair Amy Tarkanian, the daughter-in-law of former University of Nevada-Las Vegas men's basketball coach Jerry “Tark the Shark” Tarkanian, in an early September memo to her local party faithful.

In New Hampshire, Gardner told us two weeks ago that his position on Nevada has not changed and he would set the New Hampshire Primary date at least seven days ahead of its caucuses.

And political consequences:

“This (Florida jump to January) effectively precludes Sarah Palin and anyone else from getting into the race, and it's unfortunate for the Republican Party and for democracy. It also makes it much more daunting for any candidate who doesn't have huge cash reserves to be able to compete and capitalize on an early state win.”

In UHeights, it's all about the condos.

And condolences to state senator Tom Rielly of Oskaloosa, whose father, retired judge James Rielly, passed away.

Tech Update

Tech Update

Well the good news is that the good folks at Google/Blogger tech support have figured out what's wrong. The bad newses are 1) yes, my account was hacked and 2) no one's quite sure how to fix it yet.

The part I can't figure out is why anyone would hack my account and then just mess with layout. I'd think they would have replaced all my content with REPUBLICANS RULE DEMOCRATS DROOL or something. (Bonus points for all who get the reference. Only parents will.)

In the meantime, Craig Robinson has a must-read insider perspective up on the Dix vs. McKinley civil war.

Florida wants January 31 primary

Happy New Year In Des Moines

Here we go again:

Florida House Speaker Dean Cannon told CNN on Tuesday that a state commission exploring potential primary dates is likely to choose January 31 to hold the nominating contest.

If that happens, it would almost certainly force the traditional early states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to leapfrog Florida and move their primaries and caucuses into early- to mid-January.

The RNC doesn't have the full death penalty Democrats has (but then didn't enforce) last cycle: the loss of all delegates. No matter when they go, they lose only half. But their is another powerful weapon:

States that ignore the RNC rules are subject to losing half of their delegates -- party representatives who ultimately choose the nominee -- to the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida, next August.

Calendar cheaters shouldn't get to be convention hoists.

RNC Chairman Reince Priebus and other GOP officials have been aggressively lobbying Florida Gov. Rick Scott and state legislative leaders to move the primary back to February 21 in a last-ditch effort to protect the integrity of the nominating calendar, sources told CNN.

But members of the Florida commission remain wary of states like Colorado, Georgia and Missouri, which are threatening to hold primaries or caucuses before February 21.

Unfortunately Florida, as the largest swing state, is kind of an 800 pound gorilla here. So what does this mean for me, Al Franken... I mean us, Iowa?

We're in a little better shape than we were when it was Arizona looking at January 31, when everything had to dovetail perfectly to keep Iowa in calendar 2012. But we're also a little more confused. Remember, the Official order is Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, everyone else. Two basic scenarios:

South Carolina goes a week before Florida on January 24. This puts Nevada on Saturday the 21st or maybe Tuesday 1/17. New Hampshire will insist on a full week and a traditional Tuesday, which means the 10th. That puts us in the first week of January: Monday the 2nd if we insist on eight days, Thursday the 5th if we want to move away from New Year's Day a bit.

If South Carolina goes with a Saturday, which they've done before, make it the 28th. Put Nevada on Tuesday the 24th, New Hampshire on the 17th, and us in the second week of January: Monday 1/9, Tuesday 1/10, or Thursday 1/12.

Saturday is the RNC's Official deadline for date picking... but who cares about rules anyway?