11 Mart 2011 Cuma

Friday State Stuff

Friday State Stuff

Terry Branstad is way past doubling down on playing poor me with his personal finances. The double-dipper is either tripling or quadrupling down in yesterday's protest-marred Iowa City event: "I left a job that paid twice as much as this and went unemployed for a year because I love this state and want to make a difference.” (More on the warm People's Republic greeting here.)

The difference he made, of course, was loyal service to the Republican Party; the whole raison d'etre (Tish! That's French!) for Branstad 5.0 was that he was the only guy who could beat Bob Vander Plaats in a primary, and BVP was the only guy who'd've lost to Culver in the general. So that paycut was basically a $200K a year donation to the Republican Party. Mission Accomplished.

As for BVP, he may finally have given up on the governorship, but only because his latest fantasy seems to be challenging Tom Harkin in 2014. Oh pleeeeeeeez, pleeeeeeeez... he could do even worse than Christopher "Not Tom Harkin" Reed did in 2008!

Meanwhile, Republicans really need to watch their mics. House leadership got caught in a way-too-revealing chat:
Kaufmann: Jorgenson, we’re yanking him off the bill. The hell with him. He hasn’t been doing anything.

Lukan: He should have seen this coming.

Helland: You know what that means? It means I’m going to end up stuck with the bill?

Kaufmann: Sounds like you’re getting out of the Alaska bill.

Helland: Oh yeah, I’m getting out of it after I end up on a blog.
Here you are, Erik, here you are.
Lukan: The Alaska bill – what’s the Alaska bill?

Helland. I’m the dirty hatchet man for the caucus. Something nobody wants to do. Some dirty, nasty job. I’m the one who gets dropped in you know why, ’cause I’m expendable.

Kaufmann: The crazy, give-a-handgun-to-a-schizophrenic bill.

Off camera: His microphone is on.

Microphone goes dead.
In fairness, give-a-handgun-to-a-schizophrenic isn't much worse than what the House is actually passing.

This causes more trouble within the deeply divided Iowa Republican Party than with the larger electorate. Don't forget, even with all the money and all the establishment, Branstad barely cracked 50 percent against a (then) two time loser, and after he was the nominee he had to hustle just to get his party convention to approve his running mate. Kaufmann's quip is way too revealing about the cynicism and contempt that the old guard Money Republicans have for the gays and guns newcomers. With fresh district lines just weeks away, some of that dynamic may play out in primaries.

10 Mart 2011 Perşembe

NH Drops Anti-Student Bill

NH Drops Anti-Student Voter Bill

The good news is New Hampshire is backing off on a bill that would have strictly limited student voting:
The bill would have redefined "domicile" as the town or state where students lived before moving to the campus town regardless of whether they intended to return to that town or state after graduation:

Sorg referred to students as "transient inmates . . . with a dearth of experience and a plethora of the easy self-confidence that only ignorance and inexperience can produce." He argued that his bill, HB 176 ... would end unfair domination of local elections by students. He said the state should revert to laws that were in place in the 1950s, before state and federal court decisions said students living in a town have a right to vote there.
It's like the Battle of Madison on another front: don't like the outcome of the election? Change the electorate.

That theme of "domination of local elections" popped up in the House speaker's rhetoric too... and I just remembered why from 2008:
Vanessa Sievers, a Dartmouth College junior, was not content to wait tables or make coffee as a side job. Instead she ran for treasurer of Grafton County, N.H., and won, unseating the incumbent and unleashing a war of words.

The current county treasurer, Carol Elliott, 68, called Ms. Sievers, 20, a “teenybopper” in an interview with a local newspaper, The Valley News, and said she had won only because “brainwashed college kids” had voted for the Democratic ticket.

Ms. Sievers beat Ms. Elliott by 586 votes out of about 42,000 cast, and won big in Hanover, home to Dartmouth, and Plymouth, home to both Ms. Elliott and Plymouth State University.

Sievers’s big investment in the campaign was a $51 advertisement on Facebook, which she paid for with her own money.
Hmm. Someone should try that for Iowa City council this fall. Too bad city council isn't on the same cycle as president. We should get that changed. (Yes I know it would require state law changes.)

The rhetoric from the local old guard sounds familiar to Iowa Citians, too:
The county Republican chairman, Ludlow Flower, however, does not think that new media or college students belong in a county race.

“College students are not involved in local things at all,” Mr. Flower said. “They’re only involved in Dartmouth College. They don’t buy property here, they don’t pay taxes here, so they’re not concerned with how the treasury is handled.”
Sadly, the story doesn't end well; Sievers and the old guard clashed over issues such as scheduling, preferred mediums of communication (Sievers preferred emails to meetings) and party (the old guard was all GOP). She graduated and didn't run for re-election, and her predecessor got the job back.

Thursday Clips

Wisconsin GOP Gets Lent Wrong

They're already calling it the "Ash Wednesday Ambush" in Wisconsin, but in the Lenten context I thought the betrayal by Judas wasn't scheduled till Maundy Thursday.

I'm near speechless at the naked power grab by Wisconsin Republicans. Perhaps I'm still in denial and bargaining stages, byt 1) this is to some extent going to shake out in court, with the broken open meetings law issue a key, and at the ballot box with a whole lotta recall elections.

Because ultimately what has to happen is a change in control of state government, and 2) Existing contracts may buy some time. As madison.com notes:
Gov. Scott Walker's budget repair bill, now poised to clear the Legislature, would have little effect on Madison and Dane County's union employees, who have wage and benefit deals locked through 2012 and 2014 respectively.

In January, the county finalized agreements with all its unions through 2014.

On Feb. 11, Walker proposed the repair bill, which would make public employees pay toward health care and pensions and erase most collective bargaining. On Feb. 17, the City Council approved new deals with unions that didn't have them through 2012.
Which pushes things to another election cycle.

Other stuff here: A look at the systematic GOP effort to disenfranchise students (don't give the Iowa City council any ideas), along with a thorough debunking of the "voter fraud" problem (sic) in Iowa.

And Julianne Moore is waaaaaaay too good looking to play Sarah Palin.

9 Mart 2011 Çarşamba

All That's Left Is Our Friendship

Senator Ensign, meet Congressman Hagen

With the scandalized John Ensign announcing his retirement under some duress, the always geeky Smart Politics notes that "only one Senator from Nevada that left office quietly and on his own terms over the last 100+ years: Democrat Richard Bryan, who retired after two terms in 2000."

But in the Nevada rogue's gallery, they forgot Pat Geary.



Actually they didn't; all accounts are that the crooked, profane senator from The Godfather Part II is loosely based on the real life Pat McCarran. And as ugly as Ensign's sex scandal is, Geary's is way, way worse.
Geary: I didn't do anything.

Tom Hagen: It's okay. You're very lucky -- my brother FREDO operates this place, he was called before anyone. If this had happened someplace else, we couldn't've helped you..

Geary: I -- when I woke up, I was on the floor -- and I don't know how it happened.

Hagen: You can't remember?

Geary: I passed out. [He stands up and moves over the bed where we see a bloody dead girl.]
Thus violating even Edwin Edwards' code of ethics: "The only way I can lose this election is if I'm caught in bed with either a dead girl or a live boy."
Geary: I -- I'll fix it. [He unties the girl's hand from the bed post.]

Just a game. [He takes a towel and begins to wipe up the blood that is all over her. He looks at the towel and wipes off his hands.]

Jesus, Jesus. [He begins to cry. As he does, Hagen: looks over at AL NERI who is wiping his hands in the bathroom.]

Jesus, God -- Oh, God. I don't know -- and I can't understand -- why I can't remember.

Hagen: You don't have to remember -- just do as I say. We're putting a call into your office -- explain that you'll be there tomorrow afternoon -- you decided to spend the night at Michael Corleone's house in Tahoe -- as his guest.

Geary: I do remember that she was laughing...we'd done it before -- and I know that I couldn't've hurt -- that girl.

Hagen: This girl has no family -- nobody knows that she worked here. It'll be as if she never existed. All that's left is our friendship.
No one does hardball like the Corleone Family.

Smart Politics also fails to mention Tom Hagen, consigliere extraordinaire (except in wartime). The Don's wish of "Senator Corleone, Govrnor Corleone" never came true. But In the 2004 sequel The Godfather Returns, written after Mario Puzo's death but with the approval of the Puzo estate, Hagen is appointed to "Congress" in 1960 after the incumbent's death, then proceeds to lose to the dead man in a landslide. He then gets called "Congressman Hagen" from time to time.

It's a dumb mistake on the part of sequel author Mark Winegarden. No one is EVER appointed to the House; only the Senate gets appointees. (And only I would argue about that relatively minor point.) Why didn't he tie it together by simply making the nameless dead incumbent Pat Geary?

8 Mart 2011 Salı

The Least Objectionable Program and the Republican Nomination

The Least Objectionable Program and the Republican Nomination

A broadcasting theory of the 1970s may be the best tool to understand the 2012 Republican nomination contest.

As I remind my kids, back in The Olden Days there were only a few TV channels. We had three, four if you counted PBS, and on a good day we could get a second NBC channel from Rochester and a second CBS from Mason City. (That was a REALLY good day because we got Bart's Clubhouse after school).

So let's call it six, with four basic messages and a couple of weaker signals that are just minor variations on the same theme. Sometimes those minor variations, like Bart's Clubhouse, are important to a demographic, socially cohesive group.

Sounds pretty analagous to a presidential primary field.

At the moment the 2012 Republican field is more like a basic cable lineup, but by the time people are actually caucusing it won't be much bigger than the old-school broadcast TV spectrum. Indeed, conservative columnist George Will got loads of attention this week for narrowing the field:
There are at most five plausible Republican presidents on the horizon - Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, former Utah governor and departing ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, former Massachusetts governor Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty.
That's your major networks right there. Throw in a Herman Cain infomercial (does he remind anyone else of Alan Keyes crossed with Morrie Taylor?) and Ron Paul's public access show. Then of course there's Fox News.

Oh, wait, that's a real TV channel. And a real job for several candidates. Last week Fox suspended Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum and gave them 60 days to, as they euphemistically say, fish or cut bait on a presidential run. The most important part of that news was that fellow Fox commentators Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin were not suspended, one more clue that they'll, apologies to the Steve Miller Band, take the money and not run.

So we basically have our channel lineup. It's a flawed slate of choices for Republicans, so what do they do?

Back in the 1960s, NBC executive Paul Klein came up with the theory of "least objectionable program" (LOP). "Since the introduction of television, the same percentage of sets are in use on, say, a Thursday evening at a certain hour, year after year, regardless of what content is broadcast." Fair enough. We know people are going to watch something on TV, we know Republicans are going to pick someone as a candidate.

Continuing with the LOP concept:
TV viewers turn the set on, deciding to "watch television", and then seek out something to watch from what is available, flipping around, not until they find "something they like" - because television programming is in fact very rarely satisfying, and viewers rarely watch anything they actually like - but until they find something that doesn't offend them enough to make them flip to the next channel.
In a 100 plus channel market, that doesn't work so well, but if you have a limited menu of choices, being the least objectionable program can be a path to victory.

Every one of the major Republican contenders is flawed in some way. Newt Gingrich has his three divorces and abrasive personality. Mitt Romney has RomneyCare and his religion. Jon Huntsman served in the Obama administration, making him a non-starter. Mitch Daniels actually dared to dis the religious conservatives. Haley Barbour has a long DC insider history and exudes good ole boy so much that you expect him to be sending Roscoe P. Coltrane out to catch the Duke boys. And Tim Pawlenty is, well, meh.

And "well, meh" makes him the Least Objectionable Program. So this is a good test of my latest pet theory.

7 Mart 2011 Pazartesi

Ron Paul in Iowa City

Ron Paul in Iowa City

Most of Iowa's action is elsewhere this afternoon - the labor rally and testimony in Des Moines, the five-candidate Republican forum in Waukee - but the third ring of the circus was Bob Vander Plaats and the Family Leader Presidential Lecture series, which brought Ron Paul to the state for the day.

The first Paul stop, in Sioux Center, was scrubbed due to weather, but he made it to Pella and Iowa City.

Time and tech constraints have me going with the modified liveblog format:

Press availibility is on time at 3:05. Paul the elder (we need to specify now with Rand - now that's a libertarian, you name your kid "Rand"?!? - Rand in the Senate) takes a couple education questions: “The higher cost of education is a consequence of government policy. When I went to college (early-mid 1950s) government wasn't as involved and the cost was very low. In a free market students can afford it.”



With Bob Vander Plaats looking over his shoulder, Ron Paul talks to press

Next is the million dollar question when Bob Vander Plaats and Ron Paul are standing together: how to reconcile a libertarian outlook with social conservatism. “It depends on the issue,” says Paul. On marriage and abortion “I defer to the states and I want the states to deal with that. I'm strongly right to life, but the states should take care of that. It'll be imperfect because laws will be different, but what is bad is when you allow the federal government to decide.”

That was my question, so instead I asked about the Middle East. “It's their revolution and they ought to have it. Our involvement is part of the problem. We propped up the government of Egypt for 30 years. We're propping up Saudi Arabia. We need to to a lot less a lot sooner,” he said, which pretty much sums up Paul's entire approach to, well, everything.

Such as our current wars: “The country is flat out broke.” When informed that a no fly zone had been established over Libya, he said “a no fly zone is an act of war.”

Paul said he doesn't set out to appeal to young voters, “but to them the message is appealing. I've been talking about the same things for many years, but it's gotten more attention in the last couple years.”

Paul said “printing press money” (his term) needs to stop and government should “serve the interest of liberty, not special interests. If you want prosperity you have to have freedom. If you seek security you lose your liberty.”

Bob Vander Plaats was silent during press time this time, but as of 4 (after a break for a closed door event with GOP activists) took over as MC again. Calls Paul “one of the true committed individuals in Congress committed to our liberty and the constitution,” adapting to PAUL'S RHETORICAL style. (damn capslock)

Paul: “You not only have the right to take care of yourself, you have the OBLIGATION. We don't need the government telling us what to do."

“Families are the most important units in a free society,” he said, adapting to BVPs style. “Your rights and responsibilities come from your creator.”

“Salvation doesn't come collectively. I object to hyphenated rights, minority rights There's only one kind of rights, individual rights.”

Now, the million dollar contradiction for libertarians: “Based on my medical training, life begins as concettion. As an MD I had a responsibility to care for the mother and the fetus, the baby, she's carrying.”

“When I went to medical school the issue of abortion didn't come up.” That's 1957-61; Paul's an OB-GYN by trade.

“The morality of people changes the law.“ Paul says there's never going to be 'magic laws' to make everyone be moral, but “Freedom works best when the society itself is moral.”

Paul moves to his favorite turf, money policy, and refers to IRS agents, by implication, as thieves. “The Founders wrote in the constitution that only gold and silver could be money.” If you allow the federal reserve to print and spend money at will, that's counterfeiting,” he says, and notes that the first penalty for counterfeiting was death. (He also mentions his Audit The Fed bill at this point.)

About 200 bodies were on hand, much bigger than last month's Tim Pawlenty event.

Paul says students “realize what's falling on your shoulders” with the debt. “Things like endless oversea commitments, printing $ at will, no jobs available... somebody's messed up.”

“It's a major problem but it's not complicated. We sent too many people to Washiongton who did not take seriously their oath to obey the constitution.” Will be hard to fix in short run but “our answers can be found in our traditions. There was a time when we had honest money and low taxes.”

“When they talk about sacrifice, what if you've never created the problem? What if we gave you your freedom back? I wouldn't consider that a sacrifice, I'd consider it a gift.” (applause)

Without the bailout “there would have been a depression on Wall St. They DESERVE to have a depression, not the peoplel” (applause)

The Soviet system failed morally and ecomically. “And one of the final blows was they thought they could conquer Afghanistan.” (laughter and applause)

“The free society based on moral principles is the only humanitarian system that can take care of the mass of the people. It's a moral issue and a religious principle, and freedom is something we can salvage.”

20 minutes in now. “The role of government is to preserve liberty. I don't believe you have to give up any liberty to be safe (alluding to his votes against Patriot Act without a direct reference). Your ultimate liberty, other than invasion, comes from the 2nd Amendment” (big applause)

“The people who are for minimum wage law are creating unemployment,” he says, referencing “Austrian free market economics” which apparantly is a buzzword on the right.

At the beginning of his career “I was convinced I could not be elected because I had these 'strange views',” but said he first ran to be educated. Wife said “That could be dangerousyou could be elected”

Speech done 4:26. BVP and Chuck Hurley step up with prescreened Q and A.

Hurley goes first: should govt or parents have primary responsibility for education? (coughhomeschoolcough)

“I don't believe the fed govt should be involved in education at all (appl) That means I don't believe in the Department of Education (more appl). ”

“I want to make sure you can opt out of the state institution and have private or home schooling.”

BVP: most important legacy for next generation (with reference to 'your children')

“My wife and I didn't lecture our children, but there was examples set.” (there's no specific reference to Rand, who's also making an Iowa trip. Missed my chance at press time to ask if he and Rand are going to run against each other.)

Hurley: Why have most Christian groups not embraced your message?

“That's a deep question and I don't know the answer.” (some chuckles.) “There's disagreements on foreign policy, I think that's where the biggest difference is. I am strongly against the wars that are going on, I want wars to be declared and fought to win. I believe in the just war theory. You're supposed to work very hard to prevent war.” (even I have to applaud that.) BVP says “as a leader of THIS Christian group we respect you.”

After the fact aside: My guess is that to a lot of the Christian right proper, and Paul is a VERY different breed of cat, "libertarian" means "pro-abortion" (sic, and Paul is explicity anti-choice) and "pro-drug."

National debt: “The best way would be to pay it off.” (applause)

“Fiscal policy is a moral issue” and what we have done is immoral. "Don't blame me if I want to clean up the mess and return to sound money.”

To a question about the “broken progressive income tax system” (as if we still HAVE a progressive income tax?) Paul says “I don't want to fix it. I want to get rid of it” (to much applause) “The best tax is the least tax. The tax is the symptom of the problem: people want too much stuff and the politicians respond. We really enjoyed it before 1913 when we didn't have an income tax.” No word on whether we're going back to the Payne-Aldrich Tariff Act of 1909 or to a whiskey tax.

Asked about “Activist judges” by BVP, Paul says “At the federal level we ought to have the same right as you have in Iowa" to vote them out, "but that's not how it was written” in the constitution. Says nullification is “very very healthy.” “The Supreme Court has improved, there is some more interest in private property, because there has been some education of the public.”

Hurley: DOMA and Obama's refusal to defend. “The presidents goal is to undermine state's right to define marriage" says Paul. "DOMA was protecting the states. Marriage is a very personal religious matter and it shouldn't be the legal matter it is today. You're not going to satisfy 50 states.”

Paul closes at 4:43: “Young people are the ones who will need to bring about the change in the next decade or so.” Gives me optimism. Likens gov't to addiction: “you cant start a recovery till you admit the problem.”

And he's whisked to airport with no time for post-speech meet and greet. (Last time I sawy him, at the last-ever Olive Court tailgater, he shook every hand in the place.)

My bet: He runs again, gets the same 10 or so indigestible percent again. As for when he passes the torch to Rand, there's the complication of the KY senator coming up for re-election in 2016.

Voter Notes

Voter Notes

While we wait for Ron Paul this afternoon, a few notes from the realm of election law:

  • Deja vu: First Florida plays leapfrog with the primary date, and now, as usual, Michigan is getting in on the act.
    The state Legislature sets the primary day and according to a 1999 law, the Feb. 28, 2012, date stands for next year's presidential primary. That coincides with the state's quarterly local and school elections. Michigan reimburses localities for the cost of running a presidential primary, and in 2008 it was nearly $10 million.
    I'm actually OK with that argument, since 2/28 is at the very very end of the early window. But that's not what it's really about:
    State party leaders say they want to challenge the influence of the traditional "early states" of New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada, and there has been no effort to change the primary date.

    "We still think it's unfair that New Hampshire and Iowa always go first," said John Tramontana, spokesman for the Michigan Democratic Party.
    And I still think it's unfair that "in a last-minute deal worked out between state and national officials in 2008, the Democratic delegates, stripped of their votes ahead of the convention, were seated just days before the kickoff in Denver."

  • In New Hampshire, Republicans Don't Want You To Vote if you're a student:
    New Hampshire's new Republican state House speaker is pretty clear about what he thinks of college kids and how they vote. They're "foolish," Speaker William O'Brien said in a recent speech to a tea party group.

    "Voting as a liberal. That's what kids do," he added, his comments taped by a state Democratic Party staffer and posted on YouTube. Students lack "life experience," and "they just vote their feelings."

    New Hampshire House Republicans are pushing for new laws that would prohibit many college students from voting in the state - and effectively keep some from voting at all.
    Iowa may get lucky since new Secretary of State Matt Schultz, who got elected on a wave but seems to believe it was about photo ID, doesn't appear to be interested in any other issues. But Indiana's ID law didn't keep THEIR new Republican Secretary of State from committing voter fraud and voting from a bogus address.