It Ain't Over Till It's Over

It Ain't Over Till It's Over

From 18 points down to 8 in a week: Sing it for Chet, Lenny:



On the other hand, if things actually do suck in three weeks, there's one silver lining: fewer Blue Dogs.

Judge Orders Injunction on ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’ which is great, but would have been better if it had been on 1/20/09.

"Clash over Iowa City's bar age," it says... Way over, whether it's 19 or 21; Mick Jones is 55 and Joe Strummer was 50 when he died.



I like Paul Simonon's hat.

No Endorsement from Corbett

No Endorsement from Corbett

Yje Gazette plays this as a 'CR mayor staying neutral' piece, but isn't it a little telling that Ron Corbett, the Republican speaker from Branstad's fourth term, isn't endorsing Terry, even when he's way up in the polls? Hedging our bets any, Ron?

It's a Dem internal, but this poll has Boswell ahead of Brad Zaun by 8. I never thought I'd see a day when I was rooting for Leonard Boswell, but in this climate I'll hope he gets one last term. True, it has him below 50 percent (49-41) but the mighty Nate Silver says that incumbent under 50 measure is overrated.

Nationally, the Washington Post's Chris Cilizza defines a Democratic victory:

"The House equation for Democrats is simple: If they hold the majority -- even by a single seat -- following the election, they will say they won."

"If Democrats can't win (KY or MO), their best hope for a Senate "victory" is to narrow the losses within their own ranks with Colorado, Nevada and Illinois all regarded as toss up races..."

"The simple truth is that Florida, Texas and California are the major (gubernatorial) prizes -- given the size of each state's population and their importance in the coming 2011 redistricting process. Wins in two of those three races would almost certainly make the election cycle for Democrats. A sweep of all three would elate party strategists."

Closer to home, desmoinesdem has a must-read smackdown of Sandy Greiner and her ties to the American Freedom (sic) Fund.

Meerkat Monday

Meerkat Monday

It's a big Linux Monday this week as the new Ubuntu 10.10, Maverick Meerkat, was released over the weekend. I've upgraded but only checked it out yet myself; Ubuntu's release cycle has an unfortunate coincidence iwth the election cycle.

There's also the question of whether to upgrade at all. Version 10.04, Lucid Lynx, was a once every two years long term support release. Consensus seems to be: wait a bit, then go ahead.

In any case early reviews are good. Steven Vaughan-Nichols says 10.10. "scores close to a ten." Here's a Top 12 list of reasons to try Ubuntu 10.10 and a screenshot tour of new features.

As always, there's a little work to do after a new install, and here's a list for that.

With Windows XP aging into end of life, yet still the dominant OS, there's an ever-growing group of refugees who don't want to get new equipment but can't upgrade to Windows 7. Ubuntu's looking to those orphans for expansion (here's another article on that line).

In non-Linux news, a look at why American broadband is so bad. And from Cracked, of all places, 7 Reasons Computer Glitches Won't Go Away (Ever).

Sunday Clips

Republicans Peaking Too Soon?

Simon Rosenberg of progressive think tank - we have those too, just not as well funded as the righty ones - offers a must-read argument that Republicans peaked too soon in this year's mid-term elections. Key points:

"You've got trend lines where one party is dropping and one party is gaining -- it's indisputable at this point. If you're a Republican right now, and you look at this environment, the party that's dropping a month out usually loses. "

"As the Republican ads go up on the air, it's going to motivate Democratic voters because it's going to remind the Democrats how much they hate the Republicans."

Remember a couple days back when I imagined an alternate universe where Chuck Grassley got tea partied in the primary? Desmoinesdem fleshed that scenario out.

And more on the vote suppression effort in Illinois. Oops, they call it "voter integrity" (sic). In Wisconsin they're targeting students, but in Illinois there are the targeted areas:

[Chicago] South Side: 93 percent African American
[Chicago] West Side: 52.9 percent African American (and Greektown, for good measure)
Metro East: The St. Louis suburbs on the Illinois side of the Mississippi, including the notorious East St. Louis.
Rockford: 17.37 percent African American, but also known statewide for gang-ridden black neighborhoods

But the best part is Republican Senate nominee Mark Kirk dropping a rhyming code word: "...where the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat." Somehow I don't think he meant a shot of booze when he said 'jigger.'

Remember: Democrats want to help people vote, Republicans want to keep people from voting.

Stuff this week

Stuff this week

23 days to go which means a lot going on this week:

State Auditor candidate Jon Murphy will be at the home of Mitch and Melanie Gross Monday night:
6PM-7PM at 1080 Ashlynd Court, Coralville.

Lt. Gov. Patty Judge does the Hamburg Inn thing on Tuesday, 5:30-6:30 PM.

Right after that, you can eithr go home and watch the Dave Loebsack-MMM debate on Channel 9 at 7:00, or you can send your camel to bed: Maria Muldaur is at The Mill with Francis Thicke, candidate for Secretary of Agriculture, 7PM to 9PM.

And slightly stranger on the music front: Roxanne Conlin at Gabe's?!?

Come to the Roxanne Rox Concert and Early Vote Rally featuring outstanding female talent and Democratic Senate candidate. It's Sunday October 17th at Gabe's (330 E Washington Street) at 6-10pm and FREE FOR STUDENTS!

Plus early voting. Lots and lots of early voting.

It's Not 1994 - it's 1998

It's Not 1994 - it's 1998

Crazy Cajun James Carville knows a little something about getting his boss out of a heap o' trouble at the polls. The Great Bald One offers a positive prognosis for Barack Obama and the Democrats, saying this year's climate looks less like the Armageddon of 1994 and more like the disaster that wasn't in 1998:

"In the 1998 election, we conducted national polls starting in September to see if Democrats could push back against the Republican overreach on Ken Starr and impeachment, as Democrats faced the prospect of historic losses in both the House and Senate. Only two weeks before the election did the plates shift and a Democratic counter-message on impeachment became effective in our polls. In the end, Democrats lost no net seats in Senate, gained five House seats and Newt Gingrich resigned."

The key word here is "overreach."

In 1998, the Republican overreach was impeachment. This year, it's Teh Tea Party Krazy. Ultra-extreme purism in the Republican primary process has directly knocked out two GOP Senators (Bennett and Muirkowski - oops, spelled it wrong, THAT won't help a write-in campaign), indirectly knocked off a third (pushing Arlen Specter into a Democratic primary he couldn't win either), led a sitting Republican governor into an independent Senate bid, flushed away a sure thing win in Delaware, and made Kentucky competitive.

(Wonder how things might have been if Iowa's primary were in September instead of June, and if Bill Salier or Kent Sorensen had gone after Chuck Grassley for not being pure enough?)

Even when the overreach isn't direct, it's a motivator - for the other side :

Democrats break 66-15 against the Tea Party, and half say Tea Party support makes them less likely to vote for a candidate. So a Tea Party endorsement would motivate Dems to vote against a candidate slightly more than it prompts Republicans or independents to vote for one. And only 19 percent of independents said a Tea Party affiliation made them more likely to vote for a candidate.

Obama has his own Carville in David Axelrod and his own Stephanopolous in David Plouffe, and Plouffe has played the expectation card: "Plouffe said Thursday that the Republicans should be expected to make a full sweep of Congress - and key gubernatorial races - given the environmental advantages they have. Anything less, he said, should be seen as a disgrace..."

Wednesday Clips

Wednesday Clips

Press-Citizen covers state senate candidate debate but buries the big story a couple grafs down; headline should have been "Sandy Greiner Skips Debate."

Speaking of Greiner and her PAC, here's more national attention (from the Washington Post) on the bizarre emphasis on the Bruce Braley race. Aaron Blake sees a pattern with Braley as the best example: "Republicans are trying to take him out before he has a chance to grow into the Democrats' next Senator-in-waiting. And, even if they can't beat him this year, they want to bloody him for future -- and bigger -- campaigns."

Maybe. I still think his plan is House leadership ladder.

Also getting national attention: the Iowa City 21 bar fight, as NPR examines the impact on the music scene.

And I like Yes on 19 in California, too.