Christine O'Donnell's Next Ad

Christine O'Donnell's Next Ad

Someone had to put these two together: You may have heard that Senate Candidate Christine O'DOnnell (Tea-Delaware) begins her latest TV spot with the immortal line "I'm not a witch."



Here's where she cribbed the line, and a suggestion for her next ad:



But does she weigh the same as a duck? In any case, we may have found the Holy Grail of political humor...

Smart Politics; Not So Smart Analysis?

Smart Politics; Not So Smart Analysis?

Smart Politics is one of my occasional stops in the blogosphere. It's focused on the upper midwest, numbers and factiods, thus right up my alley.

But yesterday's analysis of the Iowa legislative battle, which drew the attention of no less than MSNBC's Chuck Todd, focuses far too much on one stat: "The state's Democratic Party has set a record in 2010 for the largest number of districts in which a major political party has failed to field a House candidate since the lower chamber became a 100-seat body 40 years ago."

True enough. Iowa Dems have let 25 seats go without a Democratic candidate. But Eric Ostermeier makes his mistake in drawing a causal link between number of seats contested and number of seats won: "Iowa Democrats have won 55 percent of districts in which they ran a candidate from 1970 through 2008. That would put the Democrats at a 15-seat loss down to 41 districts."

But the 25 seats with no Democrats are not randomly distributed. (One more chance to plug my All 125 Legislative Races Revisited piece.) Sure, we left a few seats on the table that we should have tried for: Tom Sands in Louisa County, Nick Wagner in Marion, and of course the seat we took away from the GOP in 2004, party switcher Dawn Pettingill.

But most of the uncontested races are in deep red territory. Would Iowa Democrats really be in better shape for holding the House if we had a self-starting sacrificial lamb running in Sioux County and losing 82-18, like we did in 2008, just to have one more "contested" race?

Marginally, maybe. That's one of the principles of the Howard Dean 50 State Strategy: it's one more campaign out there stumping for the top of the ticket and building for the future. It was one of my motivations for running, and a few years later the Republican who beat me lost to a Democrat. (I was once told my campaign was like compost, making the soil more fertile for the future. Don't know about that, but a gardening analogy is a nice break from the endless sports comparisons, and losing does feel kind of like a big pile of manure.)

But as far as the immediate battle for control, a marginal effort in your party's 80th or 90th best district will matter little to ultimate control. Indeed, Ostermeier's own (very interesting and detailed) tables undercut his point. Iowa Republicans let 23 seats go uncontested in 2004 - yet held the House.

Greiner farm subsidies draw national attention

Greiner draws national attention (not in a good way)

Several national blogs including Politico's Ben Smith pick up on this item, part of a common thread of the last couple weeks of teabaggers on the government dole:

Sandra Greiner is the president of the American Future Fund, an organization that has spent more than $5 million on advertisements that target Democrats on a variety of issues, including their support for federal spending.

But Greiner and her family have not shied away from taking federal subsidies for their farm near Keota, in eastern Iowa.

According to a a database maintained by the Environmental Working Group, a not-for-profit that tracks farm subsidies, the Greiner family -- Sandra Greiner, her husband, Terry Greiner, and their three sons -- received more than $935,000 in farm subsidies from 1995 to 2009.

For Swing State Project, this helps explain AFF's inexplicable spending for Ben "who?" Lange:

If, like me, you've been wondering why AFF is pouring $800K into the race against Bruce Braley in the 1st, which no observer has taken much interest in or seen any smoke coming from, well, now you have an answer: Sandy Grenier is the head of AFF. She's also running for state Senate in her spare time... in Iowa. In other words, she's pouring money into a race that's her own personal hobby horse, at the expense of other races that are actually competitive. (And that's not even the main point of the article... it turns out that Grenier, like so many other members of the current wave of GOP candidates, is a big believer in sucker-punching the government with one hand even as you take money from it with the other. Her family has received over $935K in farm subsidies over the last 15 years.)

Stuff To Feel Good About

Stuff For A Democrat To Feel Good About On A Monday

Those Who Know Them Best: Mike Mauro earned the endorsement of two more Republican county auditors today, including longtime Pottawattamie County auditor Marilyn Jo Drake. You may know PottCo as the home county of Mauro's GOP opponent Matt Schultz, so she's crossing not just party lines but hometown lines as well. That's the kind of respect Mike Mauro gets from his fellow election officials.

Joe Klein: ..."there isn't as much of the fist-shaking anger as I expected. There is a minority in this country--perhaps 30%--who are furious and terrified and think that Barack Obama is a secret Muslim-socialist--but most people, even those who disagree with him and disapprove of his performance, admire the effort and seriousness of this President.

There is, however, a tremendous disconnect between what people are concerned about and what Washington--and the media--seem to think is important."

I like the Democrats' chances in that mental framework. We win on the issues, as Steve Benen notes in shooting down calls for a "centrist" (sic) third party:

And what would be better than "pretty good"? A more ambitious health care policy that conservatives blocked; a more ambitious stimulus that conservatives opposed; a comprehensive energy/climate package that conservatives killed; more crack downs on Wall Street that conservatives have vowed to fight; and an education reform agenda that the president has already launched.

In other words, Friedman has effectively endorsed the entirety of President Obama's agenda, most of which has passed, can't pass, or has to be severely watered down because of unprecedented Senate obstructionism. But instead of calling for reforming the legislative process, or calling on Republicans to start playing a constructive role in policymaking, or calling on voters to elect more candidates who agree with the agenda the columnist espouses, Friedman says what we really need is an amorphous third party that will think the way he does.

And the numbers are moving, as Jed Lewison notes at Kos:

"...the GOP may have peaked too early. Taking a victory dance in August may have felt good for them, but it also forced voters to consider the fact that this November they will face a choice between Democrats and Republicans, and a vote for a Republican means turning back to the way things were under Bush -- or worse."

I like the Dems' oddss in that mental framework too.

Linux Monday

Linux Monday

It's October and as long time Linux Monday fans know, months beginning in 10 mean Ubuntu updates. Version 10.10 should be John McCain's favorite yet: Maverick Meerkat. Oops, I forgot. He never said he was a maverick.

Maverick is incorporating a Mac style "app store," which begs the question: Can an Application Store Succeed in a Free Operating System?

Here's some tips on clearing off your Ubuntu system safely. But in Linux, here's one less system maintenance chore: Why defragmenting your drive doesn't really matter.

Early Ballots are Dems Ace In The Hole

Early Ballots are Dems Ace In The Hole

Chet Culver relinquished one of the traditional Election Day images this week to set an example for his fellow Democrats. He stopped by the Polk County Auditor's Office to vote early.

Vote Early has been a Democratic mantra for several cycles. Democrats have shifted gears since the last gubernatorial election, steering more toward in-person early voting while still promoting mailed absentees. That lag in early early requests, which Some Called an "enthusiasm gap," merely reflects that strategy and a later date for the party's big absentee mailing.

Sure, maybe there is some disappointment among core Democrats who expected to have single payer health care and all the troops home by now, but their qualified support counts just as much as tea party rage. No matter how mad you are, you only get to vote once.

Back in the first Terry Branstad Era, Republicans had a good vote by mail program, but in the decade since Florida they've steered strongly toward pushing Election Day (or as we call it in Johnson County 'late voting'). This year, they're going Back To The Future in more ways than one. Branstad had a good absentee program in the primary and Republicans have resumed mailing requests. But the residual effects of a decade of selling their base on the idea that Absentee Voting = Fraud, with accompanying Chicago jokes, still linger. Note that after Culver cast his ballot, the Branstad campaign replied that Terry would be voting on Election Day.

(Aside: Has anyone else noticed in the Secretary of State race that Democratic incumbent Mike Mauro talks about ways to help people vote, while Republican opponent Matt Schultz talks about ways to make it harder to vote? Says everything you need to know about their attitudes.)

There's evidence from elsewhere that in-person early voting helps Democrats. Survey USA reports that in a close congressional race in Ohio, likely voters favor the Republican 53 percent to 41. But among voters who have already marked their ballots, the Democrat has a 53-45 lead.

The other early voting wild card is an Iowa City referendum on bar admission age. Back story for the out of towners: After a couple changes in membership and a couple changes of mind, the city council increased the bar admission age from 19 to 21 (some caveats apply), with the change kicking in over the summer.

Iowa City's home rule charter has an initiative process, and students (with an assist from some bar owners) have petitioned to repeal the ordinance, placing the question on the November 2 ballot.

The same issue was on the ballot in 2007, with the roles reversed; self-appointed public health advocates petitioned for an increase to 21. Students, who normally ignore local Iowa City elections, turned out for the city election at governor-plus levels (still below presidential year rates) and the initiative lost, 58 percent to 42.

So far, students seem to be exceeding even that 2007 pace. An early voting site at Burge Hall pulled in a record-crushing 1,319 voters, topping the old high mark of 945 set at Burge in that 2007 election.

But are those students just voting on the one issue and leaving the rest of the ballot blank? That happened to some extent in 2007. But that year it was just city council races on the ballot, and it's harder to ignore governor and senator. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the young voters are spending enough time in the booth to work their way through the ballot and vote on, if not everything, at least most of it.

So who does that help? Young voters register with no party affiliation more than any other age group. But historically, student precincts in Johnson County have also had relatively high levels of straight ticket voting. And you have to figure that anything that boosts young voter turnout in the most Democratic county in the state (70% Obama in 2008, 68% Culver in 2006) can't hurt.

Indeed, some local GOP conspiracy theorists think the city council pushed the bar issue to gin up - hey, I made a funny! - student turnout, as all seven council members are registered Democrats. But some are DINOs, and the only council member who's currently active in party business, Regenia Bailey, was also the lone vote against the 21 ordinance.

In any case, a few thousand votes that wouldn't normally be case in an off-year election will be coming out of the People's Republic. That's not enough to swing any landslides, but it could make a difference in some close races.

Mitt's Minions

Mitt's Minions: Romney Pours $ Into Iowa, Just Because

So, Mitt Romney has some cash to toss around, and he's really interested in Iowa legislative races now.

Here via the Free And Strong (sic) PAC site is Mitt's list in incomvenient image format:



Some of this money, of course, gets funneled into other races. Feel free to compare notes with the All 125 Legislative Races list and the list of who endorsed what presidential candidate in December 2007.

Of course, a lot of this gets sidetracked into other races; David Johnson is unopposed, and McKinley and Hahn aren't even on the ballot this cycle.