21 Bars Could Affect Whole State

Iowa City 21 Bar Vote Could Impact Whole State

Iowa City's latest effort to toss 19 to 21 year old adults out of the city's bars could have a statewide ripple effect in the November election, if the tentative timeline outlined in today's Press-Citizen article plays out:

"We'll probably have a line of people out the door talking to us," (Mayor Matt) Hayek said, stressing the entire process of adopting the ordinance will take place before the academic semester ends in mid-May.

That would start a 60 day clock ticking for anyone who wants to petition for an election to overturn the vote. So the bad news is 1) it makes it a fait accompli before the fall semester and 2) the petition window lands over the summer.

The good news is the number of signatures is at its minimum, 2,500, because turnout was so low in 2007 I mean 2009. (When the 21 Bar Yes people petitioned in 2007, the bar was higher, because it was based on 25% of the then-record 2005 turnout.)

If opponents collect the 2,500 necessary signatures, the city is left with three options -- reverse the council's decision, set the issue for a special election or put the issue on the next regular election.

Hayek said the third option is most likely for a number of reasons, including the cost of having a special election.

There's history for that; in 2000 they put the second "Yes Means No" First Avenue vote on the presidential ballot. (Since the vote was to remove a section of the city plan that the Council had approved, you had to counter-intuitively vote Yes to not build the road and No to build the road. I voted Yes to not build the road, but I drive on it anyway.)

At least they're not talking about cramming it through in August. So that would mean 21 bars going to a vote in this year's November 2 general election.

In 20 years as an Iowa Citian, I've only seen two things significantly boost student turnout: president on the ballot (general or caucus) and the 21 bar issue. Thousand of students showed up in the 2007 city election to vote it down (joined by some old folks like me). This effort would throw a turnout booster onto the November ballot. It'll also, less dramatically but still significantly, boost non-student turnout.

Who would that benefit? Well, in the 2006 gubernatorial general election, Chet Culver won 68 percent in Johnson County, and Dave Loebsack pulled 60 percent in his big upset win.

However, the 21 bar issue cuts across traditional party lines. Public health do-gooders and social conservatives want to crack down on underage drinking; conservative libertarians and lefty civil liberties types like me want to stand up for the rights of young adults. This would reshuffle the deck in a very unpredictable way.

Wednesday filing

4th CD Dem Maske tops Day 3 filing

The first federal candidate qualified for the June 8 primary ballot today, as 4th District Democrat Bill Maske turned in his nomination paperwork. Maske is expected to face GOP incumbent Tom Latham in November.

Other than Maske, all of the Day 3 action was in the Iowa House.

It's a rematch in Buchanan County's House 23. Democrat Gene Ficken knocked off GOP incumbent Dan Rasmussen by 759 votes in a high-profile 2008 race. Now Rasmussen's on the comeback trail.

Two Republicans filed in House District 6 (Spencer and greater metropolitan Okoboji), where GOP incumbent Mike May is stepping down. Okoboji banker Jeff Smith and Spirit Lake student Zach Whiting are the two names in the ring. Democrat Greg Stevens barely held onto this seat in 2002, winning by 64 votes and with less than 50% in a three way race. May finished him off in 2004 and was unopposed after that.

Rudd mayor Craig Clark, a Republican, filed in Mitchell-Floyd based House District 14, where Democrat Mark Kuhn is stepping down to run for his old job on the Floyd County Board of Supervisors.

Sioux City is open seat central with Democrats Wes Whitead and Roger Wendt stepping down, and GOP ex-speaker Chris Rants leaving for his now-over race for Governor. Former school board member Ron Jorgensen filed today in Rants' old House 54 seat.

Investor Mark Lofgren is the latest Republican challenger in Muscatine's House District 80, held by three-term Democrat Nathan Reichert. It was a big deal in 2004 when Reichert upset my old opponent Barry Brauns (who was attempting both a comeback and a district change). Reichert was a target in 2006 and 2008 but seems to be settling into a blue-trending district.

In House 11 (Worth Winnebago and part of Hancock), Democrat Anne Marie Fairchild is challenging incumbent Henry Rayhons again; she polled 43% two years ago.

Incumbents filing Wednesday were Sharon Steckman (D-Mason City) in House 13, Kevin Koester (R-Ankeny) in District 70, and Rich Arnold (R-Russell) in House 72.

Tuesday's filing

Tuesday's filing includes locals Jacoby, Marek

Two greater Johnson County area legislators joined the Day Two group of candidates turning their papers in to the Secretary of State.

Six-packer Larry Marek filed in Washington County based House 89. Marek won by 157 votes to gain Sandy Greiner's open seat for the Dems, but has ruffled labor feathers by opposing some of their top priority bills.

Rep. Dave Jacoby (D-Coralville) filed in House 30. Dave hasn't has a serious challenge since his three-to-one special election win in the summer of `03.

No statewide or congressional candidates threw their names in the hat on Tuesday. The only state Senate candidate to file was Landslide Rich Olive (D-Story City), one of 2006's big surprises, in Senate 5.

All other action was on the House side. Republican Roger Billings filed in House 73, and is up on the web. What's interesting is that this is fellow Republican Jodi Tymeson's seat, adding more fuel to the buzz that Tymeson is in the lieutenant governor mix for Bob Vander Plaats. (Pre-primary LG announcement?) Tymeson won with 61% last time. With neighboring House 74 open and Kent Sorensen's high profile challenge to Sen. Stacy Appel, Warren County and environs will be a hot spot this fall.

In House District 2 in Sioux City, Republican Rick Bertrand is running again. Sadly, the seriously ill incumbent Democrat, Roger Wendt, is not. Bertrand came up 280 votes short in 2008 (that one was also called as a GOP gain for a few hours on Election Night till the absentees got counted.)

Republican insurance agent Michael Breitbach of Strawberry Point filed against incumbent Dem Roger Thomas in House 24. Thomas was unopposed two years ago.

Finally, Ottumwa Democrat Mary Gaskill (House 93) filed for re-election.

School District Lines

Wrong Answer, Good Question

I saw my father in law, former Clear Creek Amana superintendent Bob Steele, last weekend, and he was... bemused by ICCSD school board member Tuyet Dorau's proposal suggestion whatever it was that ICCSD take over the bulk of the CCA district.

The way Dorau said it showed a basic misunderstanding of local politics: the tax implications, the reasons people build and buy houses in specific locations, the small town emotions about schools.

That said: isn't it silly that our school district lines are all based on where people wanted to send the kids to school 50 years ago, when schools shifted from townships to school districts? There are rural roads where district lines zig-zag literally every other house. Isn't it dumb that cities like Coralville and North Liberty are split?

It's a hard problem to solve; Bob was one of the architects of the Clear Creek and Amana merger and he has lots of tales from that challenge. But in a ham-handed, inept way, Dorau has stumbled onto a problem.

21 Bars Are Back

Just When You Thought It Was Safe To Go Back In The Tavern

I'm only surprised it took the new city council two months: "Less than three years after Iowa City voters, backed by a strong student turnout, soundly defeated turning bars to 21-only, the Iowa City Council will put the controversial topic back on the table before the end of the month..."

Six of seven members solidly in support (including a flip-flop from Connie Champrion) and only two hints of opposition:

"Regenia Bailey said she has concerns that a 21-only law would encourage more house parties in neighborhoods, which is a common argument of those against changing the current law."

That's the soft argument, as opposed to the challenge to the law that I prefer, but in this context it's the best so I'll take it.

More to my point, though it doesn't count:

Jeff Shipley, a non-voting UI student liaison on the council, opposes 21-only bars.

"I think prohibition has a lot of unintended consequences," Shipley said.

And people gave me shit for voting for Jeff. Right now I feel real good about that vote and real bad about those votes for Hayek, Wright, Wilburn and Champion.

Can't wait to see the full minutes to see if ANYone even MENTIONED the unworkability and injustice of the 21 year old drinking age.

I don't see anyone being persuadable here, let alone flipping three votes especially when Champion just flipped the wrong way. Time to get the petitions going to overturn the inevitable passage, and let's start on 2011 candidate recruitment.

Vander Plaats, Miller on Day One

Vander Plaats, Miller top Day One filing

Only two big names in the first day of filing for the June 8 primary. Republican Bob Vander Plaats is the first name on the ballot in the governor's race. Democrat Tom Miller filed for his eighth (non-consecutive) term as attorney general.

Filing first gets you bragging rights only. Some states put you on the ballot in the order you file; in Iowa you rotate. I have trouble believing it makes a difference, but studies say it does.

I'm hoping to update these each evening through the filing period (deadline March 19), though I may skip a day or two. The way this tends to go is: there's a small flurry on day one, a long lull for the next two weeks, and then a big rush on the last couple days. Or you can skip the middleman and go straight to Mike Mauro's site. Any errors made in haste will be corrected just as swiftly.

On the legislative level:

GOP operative Wes Enos files in Senate District 21 (Newton, Altoona) against Dem incumbent Dennis Black. Enos was Iowa political director for Mike Huckabee at caucus time (which went well) and campaign manager for 2008 2nd CD candidate Peter Teahan (not so well). He's on the state central committee and ran for Polk County Supervisior in 2006.

In House District 1 in Sioux City, Republican Jeremy Taylor is making another run. Taylor narrowly lost to incumbent Dem Wes Whitead in 2008 (indeed, for a few hours on election night he looked like a winner until the absentees got counted). Whitead's retiring.

No word from Waterloo Democrat Kerry Burt in House 21, but he draws a Republican opponent in Lyn Tackett. Two other Waterloo Dems filed: Doris Kelley in House 20 and Deborah Berry in 22. (Berry was primaried in 2008 over the coal plant issue but won three to one.)

Ako Abdul-Samad's primary challenger in Des Moines' House District 66, social conservative Clair Rudison, filed on Day One. Ako was in a four-way primary last time but won with a clear majority.

Albia Democrat Deb Ballalatak, who pulled 37% against Paul McKinley for state senate in 2008, will challenge Republican Richard Arnold in House 72 this time.

Campaign For Liberty (i.e. Ron Paul) activist Glen Massie is running for the GOP nod in open House District 74 in Polk County. One-term incumbent Kent Sorensen is challinging Sen. Stacy Appel; Sorensen knocked off Democrat Mark Davitt in 2008.

Speaker Pat Murphy (Dubuque's HD 28) got his homework turned in early. Other Democratic incumbent early birds: Roger Thomas (D-Elkader) in House 24, Ray Zirkelbach (D-Monticello) in House 31, Jim Lykam (D-Davenport) in House 85, Kurt Swaim (D-Bloomfield) House 94, and Freshman Jerry Kearns (D-Keokuk) House 92.

Freshmen Democrats John Beard (D-Decorah) in House 16 and Gene Ficken (D-Independence) both filed; both seats were Dem gains in 2008.

Dwayne “We shouldn’t be as concerned, actually, about [global] warming, especially now that we have modern refrigeration and air conditioning” Alons filed for another term in House District 4. Other Republican incumbents who filed on Monday: Henry Rayhons (R-Garner) in House 11, Scott Raecker (R-Urbandale) in House 60, Steve Olson (R-DeWitt) House 83, and Greg Forristall (R-Macedonia) in House 98.

Tea Party Deja Vu

Tea Party Deja Vu

We all know we've seen it before, but we're just not sure where. Are the tea partiers the spiritual hears of George Wallace... (here and here)

... or of Timothy McVeigh? (here, here and here, long-article alert)