Big Ten Poll: Obama up 13 in Iowa

Big Ten Poll: Obama up 13 in Iowa

A Big Ten poll released Monday shows Democrat Barack Obama with a 13.5 percent lead over Republican John McCain in Iowa.

The poll is in line with other surveys showing Iowa with a solid Democratic lead, yet the Repblicans continue to fight for the state, with weekend visits from McCain and running mate Sarah Palin.

The survey, conducted Oct. 19-22, shows Obama at 52.4 percent to McCain's 39 percent, with 5.5 percent undecided. The margin is well outside the poll's 4.2 percent margin of error.

Obama's growing lead is attributed to increased support from Independents. In an August Hawkeye poll, independents leaned to McCain, but in the new Big Ten survey, Obama holds a 12 point lead with independents.

"The negative advertising run by McCain in Iowa over the last few weeks may have contributed to his lower favorability rating," said UI political scientist David Redlawsk, director of the Hawkeye Poll.

Obama also has a slightly stronger edge with his own party than McCain. Obama holds 94 percent of Democrats, while McCain has support from only 87 percent of Republicans.

Links

Some Stuff To Read That I Didn't Write

Yeah. It's been a little busy lately.

CQ changes several race ratings. All movement in the Dem direction except John Murtha, who apparantly insulted his own constituents.

Assorted Obama worship:

A nice piece of writing about Obama as family man.

Counting chickens too soon here

And yes, there's actually a piece that compares Obama and Ubuntu Linux.

Speaking of Linux, the Codeweavers site is running a free Lame Duck (as in W) software special today. Their Crossover program lets ya run Window$ ware on Linux... but the site seems to be overwhelmed on the traffic. Post-election I'm planning to step up the Linux geek posts, so you've been warned.

Iowa Senate Poll: Harkin 57, Reed 41

Poll: Harkin 57, Reed 41

Despite an under-funded, nearly invisible campaign, Republican U.S. Senate challenger Christopher Reed is polling 41 percent to incumbent Tom Harkin's 57 in a new Rasmussen poll.

Reed appears to be holing the Republican base vote, despite dissent in GOP ranks and a lack of support from the state party, simply by being Not Tom Harkin. He performed nearly as well as Republican presidential nominee John McCain, who had 44 percent in the same survey to Barack Obama's 52 percent.

The poll was conducted Thursday, the same day Reed called Harkin the “Tokyo Rose of al Qaeda and Middle East terrorism” in a debate. Rasmussen's previous poll, a month earlier, showed a similar margin, with Harkin leading Reed 54 persent to 40.

In other findings, Rasmussen found Governor Chet Culver, not on the ballot until 2010, with good or excellent marks from 45 percent of Iowa voters, while 22 percent rate the governor's performance as poor.

Monday Clips

Monday Clips

Time to clear out the tabs:

Followup on that uncontested races post last week: Ballot Access News reports 40 percent of state legislative races nationwide have only one major party candidate.

CQ predicts a poor third party presidential year. "McKinney and Barr just aren’t very good candidates,” says a guy who worked for... Mike Gravel?!?

Is McCain Dr. Evil? Dr. Evil threatened to blow up the world; John McCain threatened to bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran.

And what do geeks want at election season? Healthcare and faster broadband, it says here. As for me, WHY does the new Ubuntu distribution come out five days before the election?

Season Ends on Smallest Farm

Season Ends on Smallest Farm



The forecast calls for 31 tonight and 28 tomorrow night, so today I picked the last harvest of the Smallest Farm -- a bag of basil -- and made my first homegrown pesto in years.

There's a few volunteers popping up that won't survive. A hot pepper plant by the compost pile actually produced two peppers, and there's a tomato plant sprouting too. Enough stuff fell ripe off the vines that I may have a decent garden next year without doing anything. (A long time ago I got volunteer sunflowers one year from mulching with gerbil litter.)

The second season spinach and lettuce planting got wabbitized. I'm close to ready to re-till and mulch with the fall leaves, but no time Nine Days Out.

It's too windy to rake today but I did learn that cardboard yard signs fly farther than paper. Three of my four signs crossed the street and one went a full block, but my Flip Yes sign is nowhere to be found. And I was just going to blame a drunk student (we live on a bar crawl home). So next time you blame someone for stealing signs, consider the elements. And don't forget to take them in next Friday for Halloween.

Republicans Tacitly Conceding Presidency

Ship Sinking, Rats Deserting

The GOP meme of the late week is reminiscent of 1996, when they scuttled Bob Dole. The know McCain is toast, they know they're taking big losses in the house (see their own, leaked, "Death List" here), and with six Senate seats near-guaranteed takeovers, their only hope is the filibuster.

Check these matching quotes from embattled Republican incumbents:

"Our country and our state do not need one-party rule. Of course, I would feel differently if it was Republican Party rule." Gordon Smith, Oregon

"If I lose this seat, and one party has control across the board, then you’ll see changes." Norm Coleman, Minnesota. One would hope, Norm, one would hope.

"These liberals want complete control of government in a time of crisis. All branches of Government. No checks and balances, no debate, no independence. If [Hagan] wins, they get a blank check." Ad for Elizabeth Dole, North Carolina

All three are trailing.

Now, to get that taste out of your mouth, a shot of Obama:

With the challenges and crises we face right now, we cannot afford to divide this country by race or class or region; by who we are or what policies we support. There are no real or fake parts of this country. We are not separated by the pro-America and anti-America parts of this nation - we all love this country, no matter where we live or where we come from.

Reed calls Harkin Tokyo Rose

Well, Chris Reed sure got some attention now, didn't he.

Reed, an Iowa Republican considered to have little chance of unseating the four-term incumbent in the November election, referred to Harkin as the “Tokyo Rose of al Qaeda and Middle East terrorism” in a conversation between the two for airing on Iowa Public Television.


O. Kay has the play by play.

Sounds like a sure entry in Worst Person In The World to me. The Republicans would cut off his funding Michele Bachmann style -- if they has been giving him any funds to begin with. From the comments at Sporer (update: apparantly Yepsen, the moderator, posted it first; it was tape-delayed):

After the cameras were turned off, Harkin calmly told Reed: “you’re a nice young man and I thought you had a political future ahead of you but that just ended your political career right there” and walked away. Reed said nothing.

Ted himself calls it "the most specific, truthful and damning attack that any of our Republican candidates have ever delivered to Harkin during a campaign." The comments split between that take and this: "The Tokyo Rose comment ended it for him..... that and pissing all over the Iowa GOP for leaving him with no support whatsoever."

Yepsen: "I’ve covered politics in Iowa for 34 years and I’ve never heard a candidate make that kind of serious charge about an opponent." Yeah, this kinda tops "totally nude dancing?!?" Who here remembers that one?

From Team Harkin in the in box, subject line "Vile":

As someone who has proudly worn the uniform of our country and who has served the people of Iowa in the United States Senate, this is a disgraceful attack. It has to end. It has to end today.

In perhaps a first for Team Harkin, the message actually names Reed.

Little reaction yet in the Dem blogosphere, probably because this race is so safe that no one was really aware that there even was a debate... or an opponent for that matter. "Harkin's on the ballot? Has it been six years already?"

My guess is that the attack backfires by reminding Democrats that Harkin actually has an opponent.