21 Ekim 2008 Salı

Welcome to 1964

Welcome to 1964

Is it feeling like 1964 out there? Richard Cohen of the Washington Post thinks so: "Powell walked away, and others will follow -- the second time that a senator from Arizona has led the GOP into the political wilderness."

Barry Goldwater lost one of the great landslides of American history in 1964. But the 2008 numbers aren't at landslide levels, at least not yet. Chuck Todd of MSNBC thinks an Obama popular vote win is a certainty, since Obama does way better in red states than John Kerry did, but a McCain electoral college win is still possible.

But CNN reported yesterday that McCain bailing out of Iowa, New Mexico and Colorodo yesterday. McCain, who's known to be a gambling man, needs to draw to an inside straight, run the table, hit the superfecta... choose your long-odds gambling metaphor, and insert Pennsylvania as your long-shot horse.

Steven Stark at Real Clear Politics argues that, rather than 1964, 2008 more closely resembles 1968 or 1932 -- a year of realignment to be followed four years hence by the landslide:
Parties decisively thrown out of power usually spend the next campaign turning to their fringe, on the theory that "if we had only stuck to our principles, instead of compromising, we would have won." Already we can see numerous Republicans mouthing that mantra. If followed to its conclusion, the result in 2012 will be the same as it was in 1936 when the Republicans nominated Alf Landon after the FDR landslide in 1932, and in 1972 when the Democrats nominated George McGovern after the GOP won the White House in 1968.

Read Iowa's Republican blogs and you'll see that already: the state convention Republican National Committee election where party stalwarts were replaced by the heads of the Iowa Christian Alliance and Iowa Right to Life, the complaints that longshot U.S. Senate Candidate Chris Reed and 1st District congressional nominee Dave Hartsuch are being undercut by the "Romney Party of Iowa," the Iowa Christian Alliance's call for a no vote on all judges unless they get answers on "whether the judge leans to the left or to the right." They're convinced that the road to victory starts with a hard right turn.

If they do that, Stark argues, other forces will come into play:
But beyond that, the Republicans could face an even greater challenge. In times of economic turmoil, American history teaches us that voters usually seek out a populist alternative. The greatest political threat to FDR in the early '30s came not from the Republicans but from his own party's Huey Long, with his "share the wealth" economics.

The Kingfish, of course, was removed from the equation with his 1935 assassination. But Stark -- now that's funny, Long was semi-fictionalized as "Willie Stark" in "All The King's Men" -- Stark argues that the populist of the 2010s may be a revived Pat Buchanan, or fellow talking head Lou Dobbs playing the immigration card.

One could add Ron Paul to that list. Though he's running for re-election to Congress as a Republican, the one-time presidential candidate and internet phenomenon has endorsed Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party for president, and in a post-apocalyptic Republican landscape, Paul and his massive fundraising and contact lists could be a key player.

You Gotta Problem Wid Dat?

You Gotta Problem Wid Dat?

Posts I wish I'd written: This Kos diary with an extended Mob metaphor for the 2008 race. If you're into both politics and Mafia movies, it's hilarious, and dead on target. Enjoy. As the Don said, "It's true, I have a lot of friends in politics."

20 Ekim 2008 Pazartesi

Chess Murder Hits Close To Home

Chess Murder Hits Close To Home

I heard about Iowa City's "chess murder" -- two guys, apparantly drunk, get in a fight over a chess game and one kills the other -- yesterday.

But it wasn't till today that I heard that it was at my Bohemian Paradise, the apartments I used to live in for 4 1/2 years. It was in the very building I lived in for my first three months there.

The building it happened in is single occupancy rooms, bathroom down the hall, common kitchen, and some of the lowest rent in town (I was paying $255 a month but I think it's a little higher now).

19 Ekim 2008 Pazar

Johnson County BBQ

Johnson County BBQ



Johnson County Dems BBQ day was mostly family day for me. I tried to write but just got too busy with the people I love who I don't get to see enough at the end of the campaign. But I did get some pics. (the one above is cribbed from the DI, the rest are mine. Around the table it's Ethan, me, Koni, nephew Owen who's big and growin', sis in law Keri, and Hayden.)


Keynote speaker Tom Harkin (here with Ed Flaherty) arrived and left early, so we got the backwards supper effect of dessert first.



The actual dessert.


Harkin devoted roughly one line of his speech to his unnamed opponent ("I'm not taking this for granted just because I'm not running against a member of Congress.") Spend most of it talking up Senate chances in other states and on his reluctant vote for the bailout.


By tradition, the elected officials serve the food. Here's senators Becky Schmitz and Joe Bolkcom and (partially blocked) Patti Fields from the school board.


State Reps Mary Mascher and Vicki Lensing watch open seat House candidate Nate Willems; open seat contender Larry Marek also spoke.


Dave Loebsack.



Most importantly, this was my grandson's first BBQ.

18 Ekim 2008 Cumartesi

Forget the Bradley Effect

Forget the Bradley Effect

Ron Gunzburger at Politics1
has a take on the "Bradley Effect" (people lie to pollsters about voting for black candidates) from someone who worked on the campaign of the guy who beat Tom Bradley, California Gov. George Deukmejian. Turns out it wasn't about lying to pollsters at all; it was about absentee ballots:
Tom Bradley actually beat us on election day, and by a significant margin, so there was no 'lying' to the exit pollsters. Deukmejian only won because of the absentee ballots. That was the first year California allowed the use of absentee ballots and that was our secret strategy. We piled up absentee ballots from Armenian Democrats, because Deukmejian was Armenian. They were not likely voters, so they were under-polled. But there were roughly 100,000 Armenian voters living just in the area around Los Angeles County -- plus lots elsewhere in the state. It was that absentee effort that gave us the victory.




Then there was the Bradley Effect of 2000, where people don't vote for a white basketball player because the entire party power structure is rigged for the incumbent vice president. Johnson County, Iowa: Number One in the nation for Bill Bradley, and I'm still proud of that.

But forget the Bradley Effect. That's sooo 1982. What really matters is the Cell Phone Effect. Do you know anyone under 30 who still has a land line, unless maybe they're using it for DSL?

Then there's the Reverse Bradley Effect of spiking African American turnout.



Finally there's the Blazing Saddles Effect of Just Not Getting It, but voting for Obama anyway:
So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the ni[DONG!]!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the ni[DONG!]."

And sorry about the Up Yours.

17 Ekim 2008 Cuma

Durbin doesn't mind being 'the other Illinois Senator'

Durbin doesn't mind being 'the other Illinois Senator'

Dick Durbin, the senior senator from Illinois, doesn't mind at all that he's being overshadowed by his junior colleague, Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama.

"It reminds me of a baseball player who's been on the team for a while, and he's got a good batting average, people like him, and along comes this MVP rookie, and the next thing you know, you're in the World Series," Durbin, the Assistant Majority Leader in the Senate, told Iowa Independent. "That's the way I feel. Along came Barack, and I could see our party changing, and I could see our country changing. I couldn't be happier."

Senator Dick Durbin, D-Ill., speaks on the University of Iowa campus Friday.
Senator Dick Durbin, D-Ill., speaks on the University of Iowa campus Friday.

Durbin himself is on the ballot, running for a third term. "I've got some TV ads on so people remember my name," he said. But his seat is safe enough that he has campaigned in 20 states for Obama and Senate candidates, including several Friday stops in Iowa. He spoke to a group of students on the University of Iowa campus, many of whom hailed from Illinois. "I love Evanston! I got 95 percent of the vote there," he said, grinning, as one student named her home town.

Durbin is Downstate to Obama's South Side, a folksy and conversational contrast to Obama's oratory, but the two have long been political allies. Durbin was one of Obama's earliest supporters, and traveled to Iowa with Obama on the day Obama announced his candidacy in February 2007.

“Iowa launched the campaign of Barack Obama for president" in the caucuses, Durbin told the midday crowd of students. "That really was the beginning. Now we've gotta close the deal.”

“20 years from now people are going to as you where were you when Barack Obama was elected, and you don't want to say you were down at Culver's eating butter burgers," said Durbin. "You want to day you were part of history.” Part of the pitch was to encourage students to vote early to free up more time to help get out the vote on Election Day. The senator steered voters toward a satellite voting site at the Old Capitol Mall, two blocks to the south. “I don't want to encourage you to cut classes and vote early... but it is Friday afternoon.” Over 2,500 voters took advantage of the five days of voting at Old Capitol Mall, which ended Friday. More sites open beginning Monday.

“The people who need tax breaks are not the wealthiest Americans," said Durbin. "The people who need tax breaks are your moms and dads sending you to college. The economy is a mess because we have followed the lead of George Bush.”

Durbin, as most Democratic surrogate speakers do, praised John McCain the Man while opposing McCain on policy. “John McCain is a great guy. He's served our country well. But when we look to the future we need leaders who look to the future. Barack Obama gets it. He gets it better than I do to be honest.”

"I don't think people are buying the negative ads, all that stuff about 'palling around with terrorists' and stuff," Durbin told Iowa Independent when asked about the negative tone of the campaign. "It just didn't work. It ended up driving down McCain's numbers. We're in a serious time. This economy needs help. We need some serious leadership. And just, you know, throwing names around and saying Barack's responsible for some guy doing bad things when Barack was 8 years old really is a stretch."

Durbin is optimistic about Democratic chances for gains in the Senate. "We're at 51 now, we keep all our Dems, I can see us picking up seats in New Hampshire, Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado. Alaska will depend to some extent on the trial" of Republican incumbent Ted Stevens, Durbin told Iowa Independent. "Then we have potential pickup seats in Oregon, where we're running even or ahead by a point or two; Minnesota, where we're running ahead by three or four points now; North Carolina, where we're up several points at this moment. And we have potential with Jim Martin in Georgia, which is a surprise, and we're running even in Kentucky against Mitch McConnell," the Republican Senate leader. "I’m going there Monday for an event," said Durbin.

16 Ekim 2008 Perşembe

LaRiva battles ballot access and media access

LaRiva battles ballot access and media access

"I hear people say, 'There's socialists? There's actually socialist parties? I didn't think they existed.' We get no media access," presidential candidate Gloria LaRiva said over coffee in Iowa City. "We can hardly get through."

Presidential candidate who? Look at your ballot. She's there, along with Obama and McCain and six others in Iowa -- Gloria LaRiva, nominee of the Party for Socialism and Liberation. She had the time to give this member of the media a 45 minute world exclusive interview -- something I failed to obtain from her Republican opponent the next day.

Presidential candidate Gloria LaRiva addresses a crowd of about 20 on the University of Iowa campus.
Presidential candidate Gloria LaRiva addresses a crowd of about 20 on the University of Iowa campus.

It's hard to picture the serious LaRiva, visiting Iowa City as part of a driving tour that took her to Louisiana, Tennessee, and Chicago, as a Letterman or Leno guest. She says she is never asked the kinds of personal questions about things like family or musical tastes that the major party candidates are asked about. "They ask me 'president of what?'" she says, and then voters, and LaRiva, quickly move on to the issues.

LaRiva, whose day job is as Typographical Sector of the Northern California Media Workers Union, Communication Workers of America, says she's in an unusual position for a third party candidate in that she actually represents majority opinion, citing health care as one example.

"When you hear Obama and McCain talk about health care, McCain is obviously for privatizing health care because he speaks to the rich. Obama's audience is the working class, but it's hard without a leftist or progressive explanation to know what he's saying. What did he say the other day in the debate? He said 'we will make it more accessible for people to buy insurance from all the plans that Congresspeople are entitled to. And if millions of more people buy insurance, it'll lower the price of the premiums.' Says who? There's no discussion about limiting how much insurance companies can charge you for health care. There's no solution to the health care crisis with Obama or McCain."

"What do we say? End the war now. Use the military budget to provide health care. It should be provided by government. That should be the role of government, to make sure everybody has the right to see a doctor and have preventive care simply because they're human."

This is LaRiva's second presidential bid. She was the nominee of the Worker's World Party in 1992, was their vice presidential candidate four times, and has also run for state and local office in California. "Since I've run so many times, I've learned that people take elections very seriously."

The new Party of Socialism and Liberation was founded in 2004, and this is their first time on the presidential ballot. "We've accomplished quite a lot in our four years of existence," said LaRiva. "The fact that our first time out we are on the ballot in more states, twelve, than other socialist parties, is quite a feat. It's an endeavor to get on any state ballot." Iowa requires 1,500 signatures to get on the presidential ballot. LaRiva and volunteers gathered the names during June, when they also helped sandbag flooded areas.

"The fact that third parties have to go from state to state to get on the ballot, while the Democrats and Republicans are on automatically, shows that the game is locked up for them."

Ballot access is one barrier for third parties of the left, but LaRiva says the Democratic Party is also a barrier. "They have historically been the party that captivates and co-opts the movement."

LaRiva lives in House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's San Francisco congressional district, and helped antiwar activist Cindy Sheehan get on the ballot against Pelosi. "There were a lot of progressive people saying, 'Why are you doing this, (Pelosi)'s the best hope we have' --even though she voted for the war budget and against impeachment."

"He's raised a lot of good ideas," LaRiva says of Democrat Dennis Kucinich. "A lot of people are still wedded to the Democratic Party but very unhappy, or think it's the only viable option." But she added even a Democrat like Kucinich had trouble getting media access.

"Even though the Democrats, when they were running in 2006 said 'elect us and we'll end the war,' they used it simply for political purposes," said LaRiva. "Both parties have financed every dollar. It's interesting to even now hear Obama say 'I was against the war from the beginning,' when every vote for emergency funding has been unanimous. So they're both guilty," she said of the major parties.

"A lot of the people we've met, from New Orleans to Tennessee, Iowa, everywhere we're going, there's a strong sentiment for Obama. Which is fine. I mean it's understandable, because all they see is two choices," said LaRiva But they are very open to what we think."

"The financial crisis is due to the deregulation of the last 20 years," is what LaRiva thinks of the bailout bill. "The right wing always talks about less government, less government, but what they really mean is less government on the right of capital to exploit." She is calling for the prosecution of those responsible. "They're getting rewarded and given a free ride. Congress can't even find the guts to limit executive pay." Then LaRiva corrected herself: "Not pay -- pay is when you work for it."

"They're guilty of war crimes," in Iraq, LaRiva says of President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and others in the administration, hoping they will eventually be prosecuted. "The progressive movement, of which we're very much a part, has over the years had tribunals, indictments, and people's prosecutions. It's very necessary for the historical record."

In Iowa, five of the nine candidates on the ballot can generally be described as "left." But as for the thought that the multiple candidates of the left split the vote, LaRiva disagrees. "It's a question a lot of people new to the movement ask; why not just have one candidate? But if all the left got together, we're still not big enough. We really work together in many ways. We don't spend our time fighting each other. We all have our different areas and outreach, and together it adds a lot."

La Riva describes one of her opponents -- though she certainly wouldn't characterize Green presidential candidate Cynthia McKinney as an "opponent" -- as a "great friend," and it doesn't sound like the My Great Friend platitudes major party politicians pile on each other (usually the pile gets deeper the less they like each other). "We support each other very much," she said. "And Ralph Nader has a right to run and a right to be considered a legitimate presidential candidate."

LaRiva doesn't indulge in the vanity of some obscure contenders who rhetorically pretend they're going to be elected. "I know where we'll be" at noon next Jan. 20, said LaRiva. "We'll be in Washington at a counter-inaugural."

"It'll be interesting in 2009," she said of the next inauguration. "Probably Obama will win, if things continue as they are with the economy. And if he wins, it'll be thoughtful for us to figure out how to have a counter-inaugural in the wake of a historic development of the first African American president. We will want to take note of that and recognize the achievement and what it means for the African American community and all of the United States. At the same time, we know that that will not make a change in terms of the end of the war, employment for people. And Obama will be the head of an imperialist government in a capitalist country."