Clinton Understood Surface, Not Spirit, Of Caucuses

Clinton Understood Surface, Not Spirit, Of Caucuses

Though polls show Barack Obama ahead in Iowa, it's still an open question.  If the math between Obama and John Edwards breaks just right, and if Hillary Clinton succeeds in getting out her targeted older women who haven't caucused before, she could still win. 

But strategic changes early on for the Clinton campaign leave questions.  Could she have closed the deal in Iowa?  And how much did the efficient Team Hillary machine really get the unscripted authenticity and spontaneity of the Iowa caucuses?

After the Clinton rally last night in Iowa City, a Clinton precinct captain sighed in frustration and, insisting on anonymity, shared this story.  The precinct captain's friend, a school principal, had said he was trying to choose between Clinton and Barack Obama.  He was on his way into the rally when his cell phone rang.  It was Obama.

Not a campaign staffer, a volunteer, or a robo-call.  It was Barack Obama himself.

The personal request proved to be sufficient, as the principal pledged his support directly to the candidate, turned on his heels, and walked out of the Clinton event.

Now, we all know Iowans are spoiled, and I've heard some stories of Clinton calling individual Iowans, albeit Iowans of the elected official rank.  But the Clinton precinct captain told this tale as an example of frustration with the top-down organization of the Clinton campaign.  An Obama precinct captain was able to get the word up through the county and state structure that this principal, not a party activist but certainly a neighborhood leader who'd look really persuasive standing in the Obama corner at his precinct, could be persuaded by a few words from the candidate.

The Clinton campaign, in contrast, ran a cautious general election campaign in the ultimate retail environment.  But like a singer with perfect pitch who misses the meaning of the song, Clinton kept errors to a minimum but failed to capture the spontaneous spirit of the caucuses.  She started out doing one on one meetings with undecided local activists, but as her national lead held, Clinton moved toward a "general election strategy," as she said at a debate.  By the time Obama was catching up in the fall, it was too late to go back and adapt.

No one incident captures this perfectly, but little detail after little detail paints the picture.

A staffer subtly steering me away from a friend of many years, directing her to the public seats and me to the roped off press area.  Offering the press free pizza after the speech, rather than what we really wanted: time to ask the candidate a question.  The relentless focus on sign war at cattle call events, bringing in loads of staffers and making it harder to ferret out the genuine levels of support.  The careful release, then quick denial, of a strategy memo last spring arguing that Clinton should skip Iowa, underscoring her relative weakness in the state and inoculating her against expectations.  Supporters leaving the Harkin Steak Fry after Clinton spoke without hearing the rest of the candidates, as if to send a scripted message of "I'm only here for Hillary."

Clinton was the only candidate who did not do a question and answer event at the University of Iowa or the Iowa City Foreign Relations Council, and got caught red-handed planting questions at Grinnell.  Even little stuff like Chelsea Clinton smiling but saying not a word from the stage, and no-commenting a nine-year-old child reporter, made the campaign look too careful, too cautious.

A University student who attended a rally in Manchester reported that he was not allowed in until he put on a Hillary sticker, and said that at the end of the speech Clinton offered the crowd a choice: "I can answer some questions, OR, I can shake some hands."  The crowd roared its approval at the chance to meet, maybe even touch, the woman who would be president.

Some of this touch the hem of the garment dynamic was also present at Obama events.  But in general, Obama seemed more relaxed and less rehearsed.  His speech focused on a big picture, while Clinton set out to demonstrate her encyclopedic policy knowledge with a long laundry list of domestic policy.  After some grumbling (mostly from Edwards supporters) that Obama wasn't taking enough questions, he adapted and did more public Q and A.

John Edwards, in contrast, took public questions almost every time I saw him,  (The exceptions were two issue-specific events at which he didn't do the standard speech, the SEIU endorsement and a foreign policy address.)  And at the end of every speech, the staff worked the press platform and directed us to a media availability - sometimes only three questions, but still an opportunity.

Unlike Obama and Clinton, Edwards had the luxury of traveling outside the Secret Service bubble, which had to have helped - it's hard to be loose under heavily armed guard, when access to the candidate is controlled by coveted, coded pins.  But Edwards' more natural style probably had more to do with having been through Iowa before, as an asterisk candidate most of the way before that stunning climb to second place.  He's also, more than the other two front runners, bet the ranch on Iowa.  (So have the second tier - because they have no other choice.)

The Clinton campaign may have been floating some trial balloons last night.  The candidate commented late in the speech that caucus goers are "standing up for those who can't caucus" - citing troops in the Middle East and shift-working nurses and waitresses.  The implication is that those folks would be with her, if only they could make it to the caucus, and it sets a stage for a sotto voce Beltway narrative of "well, you know, Iowa's got this screwy process and it was really stacked against her."

A campaign operative also hit me with the idea that "there may not be a decisive result."  This lets team Clinton dismiss a close third as "a three way tie."  That's not likely to play in press shorthand.  A headline has only so many picas, and a win, by whomever and however narrow, is a win.  However convoluted our results are, they're still the first real results, and they won't be brushed off.

Senate GOP Leader Weick Endorses Romney

Senate GOP Leader Weick Endorses Romney



Mitt Romney picked up an endorsement today from Iowa Senate Minority Leader Ron Weick of Sioux City, raising his GOP-leading legislator tally to 18.

"I believe Governor Romney is the individual who has the best opportunity to bring economic conservatives and social conservatives together," said Wieck in the Romney press release.

John McCain has the second tallest stack of little elephants with eight.

	Total	House	Senate
Romney	18	13	5
McCain	8	5	3
Thompson	6	6	0
Giuliani	3	0	3
Huckabee	3	2	1
Cox	0	0	0
Hunter	0	0	0
Keyes	0	0	0
Paul	0	0	0
Tancredo	0	0	0
Uncommitted (so far)	28	20	8
Total	66	47	20

 

  

Name	District	Home County	Endorsement
Sen. E. Thurman Gaskill	Senate District 6	Hancock	Giuliani
Sen. Mary Lundby	Senate District 18	Linn	Giuliani
Sen. Jeff Angelo	Senate District 48	Union	Giuliani
Sen. David Hartsuch	Senate District 41	Scott	Huckabee
Rep. Dwayne Alons	House District 4	Sioux	Huckabee
Rep. Carmine Boal	House District 70	Polk	Huckabee
Sen. John Putney	Senate District 20	Tama	McCain
Sen. Larry McKibben	Senate District 22	Marshall	McCain
Sen. Pat Ward	Senate District 30	Polk	McCain
Rep. Mike May	House District 6	Dickinson	McCain
Rep. Bill Schickel	House District 13	Cerro Gordo	McCain
Rep. Steven Lukan	House District 32	Dubuque	McCain
Rep. Rod Roberts	House District 51	Carroll	McCain
Rep. Walt Tomenga	House District 69	Polk	McCain
Sen. Dave Mulder	Senate District 2	Sioux	Romney
Sen. David Johnson	Senate District 3	Osceola	Romney
Sen. Ron Wieck	Senate District 27	Woodbury	Romney
Sen. Brad Zaun	Senate District 32	Polk	Romney
Sen. James F. Hahn	Senate District 40	Muscatine	Romney
Rep. Dave Deyoe	House District 10	Story	Romney
Rep. Tami Wiencek	House District 21	Black Hawk	Romney
Rep. Chuck Soderberg	House District 3	Plymouth	Romney
Rep. Ralph Watts	House District 47	Dallas	Romney
Rep. Dave Tjepkes	House District 50	Webster	Romney
Rep. Christopher Rants	House District 54	Woodbury	Romney
Rep. Jodi Tymeson	House District 73	Madison	Romney
Rep. Betty De Boef	House District 76	Keokuk	Romney
Rep. Linda Miller	House District 82	Scott	Romney
Rep. Steven Olson	House District 83	Clinton	Romney
Rep. Rich Anderson	House District 97	Page	Romney
Rep. Greg Forristall	House District 98	Pottawattamie	Romney
Rep. Doug Struyk	House District 99	Pottawattamie	Romney
Rep. Royd Chambers	House District 5	O'Brien	Thompson
Rep. Kraig Paulsen	House District 35	Linn	Thompson
Rep. Clel Baudler	House District 58	Adair	Thompson
Rep. Jeff Kaufmann	House District 79	Cedar	Thompson
Rep. Jamie Van Fossen	House District 81	Scott	Thompson
Rep. Sandy Greiner	House District 89	Washington	Thompson
Sen. Mark Zieman	Senate District 8	Allamakee	(ex-Brownback)
Sen. Jerry Behn	Senate District 24	Boone
Sen. Steve Ketteriin	Senate District 26	Sac
Sen. James A. Seymour	Senate District 28	Harrison
Sen. Nancy J. Boettger	Senate District 29	Shelby	(ex-Brownback)
Sen. Larry Noble	Senate District 35	Polk
Sen. Paul McKinley	Senate District 36	Lucas
Sen. Hubert Houser	Senate District 49	Pottawattamie
Rep. Henry Rayhons	House District 11	Hancock
Rep. Linda Upmeyer	House District 12	Hancock
Rep. Chuck Gipp	House District 16	Winneshiek
Rep. Pat Grassley	House District 17	Butler
Rep. Dan Rasmussen	House District 23	Buchanan
Rep. Dawn Pettengill	House District 39	Benton
Rep. Lance Horbach	House District 40	Tama
Rep. Polly Granzow	House District 44	Hardin
Rep. Gary Worthan	House District 52	Buena Vista
Rep. Dan Huseman	House District 53	Cherokee
Rep. Clarence Hoffman	House District 55	Crawford
Rep. Matt Windschitl	House District 56	Harrison
Rep. Jack Drake	House District 57	Pottawattamie
Rep. Dan Clute	House District 59	Polk
Rep. Libby Jacobs	House District 60	Polk
Rep. J. Scott Raecker	House District 63	Polk
Rep. Jim Van Engelenhoven	House District 71	Marion
Rep. Rich Arnold	House District 72	Lucas
Rep. Tom Sands	House District 87	Louisa
Rep. Dave Heaton	House District 91	Henry
Rep. Cecil Dolecheck	House District 96	Ringgold

Obama, Paul win Coffee Bean Caucus

Obama, Paul win Coffee Bean Caucus

Barack Obama and Ron Paul were the two winners in the Hamburg Inn's Coffee Bean Caucus, held at the politically famous Iowa City diner.

Hamburg Inn patrons could vote as many times as they visited the diner by dropping a coffee bean into their candidate's jar.  The Coffee Bean Caucus was featured on TV's "The West Wing" in 2005.  Results were announced this morning on a live CNN broadcast from the Hamburg Inn.

Several candidates, including Obama, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and Green candidate Cynthia McKinney, visited the Hamburg Inn in 2007.  Former president Bill Clinton also stopped by.

The votes leaned strongly Democratic in liberal Iowa City.  Obama had nearly a two to one lead over second place Democrat Hillary Clinton, who in turn held nearly a two to one lead over Edwards.  On the GOP side, Paul's lead was strong but less overwhelming over Mitt Romney.

Democratic		Republican
Barack Obama *	1733	Ron Paul	132
Hillary Clinton	830	Mitt Romney *	87
John Edwards *	445	Rudy Guiliani	71
Dennis Kucinich	291	Mike Huckabee	70
Bill Richardson	276	John McCain *	46
Joe Biden *	176	Fred Thompson	46
Chris Dodd *	79	Duncan Hunter	5
Mike Gravel	0
Cynthia McKinney (Green) *	36	Undecided	215

* Visited Hamburg Inn, 2007

Let The Music Do The Talking

Let The Music Do The Talking: Last Call For Campaign Music

As caucus season rocks to end end, so does the roar of campaign rally music in halls across Iowa. One of my stock-in-trades of liveblogging Campaign `07 was the obsessive focus on stage music. Voters are often asked which candidate they'd like a beer with, or who they'd trust to babysit the kids. But which candidate would you trust to load your iPod?

A candidate-programmed music player would certainly include Tom Petty's "I Won't Back Down" and U2's "Beautiful Day," because almost everyone played those at one time or another. Once you get past those cliches, though, there's definite distinctions.

Ron Paul wins the no-prize for his way-too-into-it custom recorded music, in rock, rap and country genres, with lyrics encompassing his name and platform. (Typical lyric: “We need Doctor Paul to make a presidential house call.”) The rewrite of “New York, New York” made me briefly think of Rudy Giuliani before it reached the chorus of “Ron Paul, Ron Paul,” and the re-written lyrics to the Beatles' “Revolution” made this old-school Lennonist cringe.

Hillary Clinton comes in next to last, mainly for the much-promoted song contest that wound up with an unfortunate Celine Dion victory. The Dion song "You And I," written for a Canadian airline ad, was occasionally heard, but was mostly abandoned for the song that was probably supposed to win the contest, KT Tunstall's "Devil Wears Prada" anthem "Suddenly I See."  Team Hillary also played Clinton 42 era "Right Here Right Now" by Jesus Jones, with its non-subtle making history chorus.

Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich lose some points for using cover versions.  Richardson walked on stage in June to a remake of "Not Fade Away," originated by Clovis, New Mexico's own Buddy Holly.  Kucinich used a generic cover of John Lennon's "Power To The People."

While Democrats parse rally music lyrics for political message, Rudy Giuliani blasted the Iowa Memorial Union in October with a mix of apolitical classic rock for the aging frat boy in all of us: AC/DC, Aerosmith, and Guns N' Roses, with no discernable message other than kick ass.  (Kind of like his campaign.)

Joe Biden and Mitt Romney weren't so big on music the times I saw them, though once in a while at cattle-call events Biden took the stage to John Fogerty's "Centerfield," the "put me in coach" song.

Sam Brownback of Kansas brought the band Kansas to the Ames Straw Poll, while Duncan Hunter -- campaign slogan: "No, I'm not a cake mix" -- brought an Elvis impersonator and kept a straight face while maintaining the fiction that it was actually the real Elvis.  Just before Ames, at the candidate-saturated State Fair, Alice Cooper got into the act, closing the set with his 1972 classic "(I Wanna Be) Elected" and announcing his candidacy.

Mike Huckabee rocked the house himself at the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, playing bass with his own band Capitol Offense.  While I never saw a large Huckabee event, we had a pleasant conversation back in his asterisk era.  "The Stones, of those that are still around… the Beatles of course," he said of his favorite bands.  "I like a lot of 60s rock because it's authentic music that the artist produced, not like a lot of things now that are so manufactured.  You can tell in the first few licks if a song is by someone like Led Zeppelin or Creedence."

Barack Obama hit the repeat button a few too many times -- sometimes the same five songs cycled three or four times while the crowd waited -- but he had a nice mix based around Motown and `60s soul: Jackie Wilson's "Higher And Higher," Stevie Wonder's "Signed, Sealed, Delivered," Aretha Franklin and James Brown.

Finally, John Cougar Edwards was the most on message.  A "Rise Up" cadence in a late version of his stump speech ended with Bruce Springsteen's "The Rising" on the loudspeakers.  The John Mellencamp alliance loses points for the "Our Country" truck ad tie-in, but gains points for the actual endorsement of the artist as Mellencamp joins Edwards for a night-before-caucus Des Moines rally.  Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne also played for Edwards, while Paul Simon -- the "and Garfunkel" guy, not the 1988 candidate -- played for Chris Dodd.  But Edwards takes the prize for the most creative and obscure choice of all: "Salt of the Earth" by the Rolling Stones, heard at a December Iowa City rally.

Hillary Clinton, Live in Downtown Iowa City

Hillary Clinton, Live in Downtown Iowa City

Hillary Clinton wrapped up a New Year's Day of Iowa campaigning with a rally for about 500 in downtown Iowa City.

It's 9:20 and if I'm gonna pay 10 bucks for a connection I'm gonna liveblog.  The staffer is stretching for time with a Hillary trivia contest.

The downstairs Sheraton ballroom is full with about 500.  I'm attempting to start a rumor that the rally is being moved outside to the Ped Mall, but no one's biting.  The TURN UP THE HEAT signs are welcome on this cold night.

Are Iowans spoiled by all this attention? "Yes," says John Moore of Mt. Horeb, Wisconsin.  He and his wife Kate, and some friends from Westby, Wisconsin, are in Iowa City for a couple days to catch as many candidates as possible in advance of Wisconsin's Tsunami Tuesday primary.  "We're here to listen," said Kate; they hope to see Biden, Edwards and Obama tomorrow.  John proposes a more fair system than Iowa First: "Let me elect the president."

Bev Jones of Iowa City is a caucus vet and still undecided: "I like whoever I saw last," she says.

The crowd is kid-heavier than most events, and they're reacting very enthusiastically to a t-shirt tossing staffer.  He asks us to turn off our cell phones; what if Rudy Giuliani's wife calls?

The karaoke soul singer who started the show, replaced with Lenny Kravitz and "Are You Gonna Go My Way."

9:31 and HRC is on, with Chelsea and the local legislators Vicki Lensing and Mary Mascher.  Didn't know Chelsea was on this leg of the tour.  Wonder if I can get a quote?  Naaaah.

The national touring press corps crunches in loudly and comes close to crushing my itty bity camera, as Mascher and Lensing handle the intros.  (Nationals travel with the campaign, the locals show up early.)  Lensing turns it over using the R word: "Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton."  I thought just the AP styleook still used Rodham.

HRC intros Tom Vilsack, just kinda lurking along the sides.  She references her last Johnson County event: "The fire marshal shut us down, there were 300 people outside freezing, we couldn't convince anybody to let them in."


Hillary's silent partners: Tom Vilsack, Chelsea Clinton

Into the main body of the speech, listing the domestic issue laundry list.  Uses the demanding vs. hoping vs. working for change line.  Vilsack looks on... wondering what might have been?  Interesting that he's here but didn't take the stage.

She's keeping very close to the text and the slow, deliberate pace she kept a couple weeks ago in Coralville: walking through the Children's Defense  Fund and health care.  "A lot of people who don't know me have a lot to say about me," she says to knowing laughter.  There's maybe a little more about her international travel as first lady: "In fact I went to Northern Ireland more than my husband did."  A minor adjustment.

"Yes, we have the strongest military in the world, but that is not the source of our strength."  This goes, not to the war, but to domestic work in the Senate.  Loudest applause thus far goes to pledge to never never never privatize Social Security.

At the end of the long policy road, we hear: "I'm not asking you to take me on faith.  I'm asking you to look at the record."  Defines self as "a modern progressive -- that is what I am, that is what I believe in."  I'm not sure how a "modern" progressive varies from any of the other senses of the word -- a Bull Moose Progressive, a Fighting Bob LaFollette Progressive, a Henry Wallace Progressive? -- but it's a launching pad for more health care.  A health care plan that does not cover everybody "will be eaten alive, it will give aid and comfort to the Republicans."

40 minutes since the intro began and still no mention of the war, as she discusses tax fairness and fiscal responsibility.

"When I talk about the economy of the 90's my opponents say there she goes again.  I'm talking about what happend 10 years ago! It is within living memory."  Says Bush's greatest failing is "governing by fear."  At least tangentially related to the war, but secondary to the war itself.  She moves on to energy independece, citing the list of biofuels.  Says that when she takes offices the oil companies will be so scared they'll drop the prices to take the heat off.

45 minutes in and we have education.  As usual for all candidates, ending No Child Left Behind is the big applause line.  Easier financial aid forms also gets a lot of applause.

50 minutes in we get to the war.  We hear "withdraw our troops as quickly and as responsibly as we can" again.  But now it begins within 60 days.  She raises the image of those of us who want to "do it yesterday."  "Withdrawing troops is dangerous.  You know, we have to secure the exit routes, we have to bring our equipment out.  You also have to worry about the civilians and the Iraqis who sided with America.  America has to protest those who tried to serve us."  Also says planning hasn't started because Bush admin won't cooperate.  Ultimately, a one to two brigade a month pace.  Much more on this subject than she offered a couple weeks ago.  But still focuses much more on The Troops and The Vets.

Winding down and returning to the hard work theme.  "You'll be standing up for those who can't be at their caucuses."  The troops can't be at the caucuses, she notes, shift workers can't be there. 

Makes her electability argument against the GOP attack machine: "I've been on the receiving end of their fire for 16 years now, and much to their dismay I'm still here."

Things wrap at the hour and three minute mark with BTO and "Taking Care of Business," which makes me want to buy office supplies.  Then We have Top Petty's "American Girl" (subtle) which makes me think Hannibal Lecter is attacking.

HRC is in the handshake scrum, SS watching closely.  This is the point at an Edwards event at which they'd be telling us where the very short press availability would be.  Instead, Team Hillary offers the press corps some pizza.  I'd trade the slice of sausage for some availability, but the pizza hasn;t compromised my objectivity.

Kucinich Steers Supporters To Obama

Kucinich Steers Supporters To Obama

In an echo of his last minute announcement in 2004, Dennis Kucinich has offered advice to his supporters on where they should go if he's unviable.  But John Edwards, who got Kucinich's provisional backing in 2004, didn't get the nod this time.

"Please caucus for me as your first choice on Thursday with enthusiasm, as an indication of your strong commitment to the principled politics on which this campaign is based," Kucinich told his Iowa email list.  "If for some reason I do not make the 15% threshold in caucuses, I ask you to cast your second round ballot for Senator Barack Obama."

Kucinich has been polling in low single digits and campaigning little in Iowa, and likely to be well below the 15 percent viability threshold in most places. But in a neck and neck race, a delegate here and there could make a big difference Thursday night.

The 2004 Kucinich-Edwards alliance has been credited with helping Edwards to his second place finish and hurting Howard Dean.  Despite their similarity on issues, especially the war, there was hostility between the Dean and Kucinich camps, as Kucinich supporters felt Dean had unfairly claimed the role of top peace candidate.

Dennis Ryan of Iowa City is backing Kucinich as his first choice, but won't follow his candidate's lead in round two.  "I'll probably go for Edwards," Ryan said. "Obama's great, but he doesn't focus on the class issue the way Edwards does, so I like Edwards better."

The Obama campaign quickly embraced Kucinich's support -- their press release landed in in-boxes before the Kucinich announcement itself. “(Kucinich) and I have been fighting for a number of the same priorities -- including an end to the war in Iraq that we both opposed from the start, reforming Washington and creating a better life for America's working families," Obama said in the statement.

Top Tier Dems Offer Three Visions of Electability

Top Tier Dems Offer Three Visions of Electability

Iowa Democrats are sophisticated creatures. We’re smart enough to realize that, for all the dance over the minutia of their policies, there really isn’t a lot of substantive issue difference within Democratic field, not compared to the GOP’s differences with Rudy Giuliani on choice or John McCain on immigration or Ron Paul on just about everything. The top six Democrats all want some sort of health care plan short of single payer that retains the private insurance sector, they all want to end the war with varying degrees of speed, they all favor civil unions but not gay marriage, and so on, and so on.

The important issues in the Democratic race at end game, rather, are the meta-issues: persona, rhetoric, the identity politics of race and gender, and most of all electability. Iowa Democrats know they’re choosing the nominee almost single-handedly again, and they want someone who can win. The top three Democrats -– be real, none of the second tier broke through -- all offer different cases as to why they’re the most electable.

Barack Obama makes the most traditional electability argument, with his message of bringing people together and rising above partisanship. “Remember the Reagan Democrats?” he says on the trail. “I want to see some Obama Republicans,” citing polls that show him as the most popular Democrat among Republicans and independents.

But will that last? To some extent, Obama remains a blank slate, yet to be defined. And Republicans remain very, very good at defining Democrats. People read into him whatever they want.

Also important to Obama’s electability case is the expand-the-electorate argument that had been made by every progressive back to George McGovern. I, says the candidate, am the one who can finally get those non-voters to the polls. Usually this refers to the unreached underclass, an invisible proletariat that the left has always dreamed will rise up. And there is the notion that the historic nature of Obama’s candidacy will maximize black turnout and bring in new young voters. But at the core of Obama’s vision of the American non-electorate is something different and probably more accurate: the turned-off middle. People are tired of the fighting, he argues, and want compromise.

But what if the reason for the bitter fighting in American politics is substantive, not petty? What if the argument is heated because of fundamental, irreconcilable differences? That’s the core of John Edwards’ case.

Twenty years ago the economic leftist message was coming from African American Jesse Jackson, while the centrist voice was Southern white male Al Gore. (Now that he’s Saint Global Warming, everyone forgets that Gore got his start in presidential politics as a Sam Nunn conservative, the South’s Great White Hope against Jackson.) Today those tables have turned, with Edwards rousing the masses as Obama preaches conciliation. Edwards openly mocks Obama’s Politics of Nice, saying it’s a “fantasy” or, sometimes even, a “lie” to believe that Big Insurance and Big Drug will negotiate away their own power.

By putting economic populism at the center of his message, Edwards is hoping to persuade the working class Tories of America to vote their pocketbooks and abandon the God Guns and Gays politics of the Karl Rove era, as he takes the stage to John Mellencamp’s “Our Country” –- a song prominently featured in a pickup truck ad.

Edwards argues his electability in terms of the electoral math. “I’m the only candidate who’s won a red state,” he says. That refers to his Senate win nearly a decade ago. As the nominee for vice president, he lost North Carolina. Implicit in the argument as to why Edwards can win red states is the reasoning that a black man or a woman can’t. This is never, ever, ever spoken out loud by the Edwards campaign. But once in a while it’s quietly whispered at the backs of halls by rank and file supporters – never with a tone of racism or sexism, but more in a sense of regret and fear. Phrases like “just not ready” and “don’t take a chance” pop up. Is it racist or sexist to implicitly argue the racism or sexism of the American electorate, to argue that Southern white men will only vote for a Southern white man? Name the last three Democratic presidents. Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton.

Hillary Clinton’s electability is the central issue of the Democratic dialogue. She’s the most polarizing figure in presidential politics, and has been fortunate that Obama and Edwards have largely and roughly evenly split the opposition. Polls consistently come to the same conclusion: roughly half the electorate says that they would never, under any circumstances, vote for her.

Yet Clinton has taken this Achilles’ heel and forged the most creative electability argument in the field, arguing that her weakness is instead her greatest strength. She argues that whoever the Democratic nominee is, the Republican attack machine will hit with everything it’s got, the way John Kerry got Swift-Boated. (Remember how electability was Kerry’s ace in the hole? “They can’t go after Kerry -– he’s a war hero!”). They’ve thrown everything in the world at me over the last 16 years, Clinton continues with the argument, and I’m still standing. She points to steady attacks in the Republican debates and says that proves her strength.

The point has some merit in its contrast with fresh face Obama, though Edwards weathered the intense scrutiny of number two on the ticket far better than some past contenders like Geraldine Ferraro and Dan Quayle. But ultimately, Clinton makes a status quo argument. While Edwards argues for persuading people to the Democratic side, and Obama hopes to expand the electorate, Clinton tacitly concedes that the slash and burn politics of the Rove era will continue, and she’s the candidate most fit to survive that political Darwinist environment.

Clinton also says she’s “the least known famous person in America,” and that once people get to know her, her negatives will drop as they did in upstate New York. On substance, she has the most moderate record of the top three and the support of the Democratic Leadership Council. To the DLC, “electable” means “moderate,” with Senator Clinton’s husband as case in point. This strategy forgoes gains on the left margin in hopes of winning over the muddled middle.

A generation ago, as much as a quarter of the electorate was persuadable in a general election. Both parties won three out of eight voters at their low water marks, Barry Goldwater and George McGovern. As American politics has polarized, the center has gotten narrower and narrower. Today, probably as little as ten percent of voters are truly up for grabs. Looking ahead to November, it’s hard to imagine the GOP dropping much below 45 percent, barring some sort of Ron Paul splinter candidacy.

So who’s truly taking a chance on electability? John Edwards and Barack Obama are making a case for the politics of 55 percent, a relative landslide that could help carry down ballot races in its wake. But Hillary Clinton is betting on inside straight politics of 51 percent, the margins of field work, the minutia of better get out the vote efforts in Ohio and Florida, the hope that no Nader-like, two percent lefty peace candidacy happens. This time, she argues, on the third try, the Democrats can thread the needle.