The Waterloo Democrat joins his fellow Iowa freshman, Dave Loebsack, in the Obama camp. Braley supported former candidate John Edwards during the Iowa caucuses. Both are Democratic National Convention superdelegates.
Iowa's other House member, Rep. Leonard Boswell, is supporting Hillary Clinton.
| State Convention, Des Moines, June 14 | |
| State Delegates | 2500 |
| VIABILITY | 375 |
| At Large National Delegates | 10 |
| State Delegates | National Delegates | |
| Clinton | 784 | 3 |
| Edwards/Uncommitted | 417 | 2 |
| Obama | 1299 | 5 |
This solution accomplishes everything everyone has said they want to do. It would give Michigan's voters -- the people who will do the grunt work to get our Democratic nominee elected in the fall -- a say at the convention. It rewards Hillary, slightly, for having won. It penalizes Obama, slightly, for taking his name off the ballot in January. And it penalizes Michigan, 28 total delegates, for having broken DNC rules and moved its primary up.
But it focuses that punishment on those who played chicken with the votes of Michigan, and lost last year, rather than punishing those who had no choice in the matter and got their ability to cast a vote in a truly fair election. It penalizes the superdelegates, many of whom were instrumental in the decision to defy the DNC.
The Iowa Democratic Party reports a national delegate count of Obama 16, Clinton 9, and Edwards 4 from the five conventions.
Edwards supporter Sam Juhl, mayor of Roland and an Iowa House candidate, told Iowa Independent Wednesday there had been a conference call between 4th District Edwards supporters and "another campaign" to make Edwards viable.
Math in the district would indicate that would have been Hillary Clinton's campaign. With Edwards not viable, Obama needed to gain fewer Edwards supporters to win a 4-2 split in the 4th district than Clinton would have needed to earn a 3-3 tie.
Based on county convention results, Edwards and uncommitted forced would have been 18 people short of viability in the 4th District.
Results from the other districts:
CD 1: Obama 3, Clinton 2, Edwards 1
CD 2: Obama 4, Clinton 2, Edwards 1
CD 3: Obama 3, Clinton 2, Edwards 1
CD 5: Obama 2, Clinton 1, Edwards 1
At 3:30, the numbers were officially released: Obama 297, Clinton 169, Edwards 107. Obama gained two from the county convention, Clinton lost two, Edwards was unchanged. That translates into a national delegate split of Obama 4, Clinton 2, Edwards 1. "Five hours of waiting for no change" says Edwards chair Dave Redlawsk.
9:00 AM and the convention is close to convening. The Edwards group is moving out of the main hall to convene in a side room. Clinton and Obama efforts are well in evidence. There was a heated flag pin argument in an aisle between a Obama backer and a couple Clinton supporters; more on that as the opportunity arises.
The chairs are piling up with flyers for national delegate candidates, mostly from Team Obama:
Obama will likely elect four delegates, two men and two women (elections for male delegate and female delegate are held separately).
The only flyer for a Clinton delegate so far is from Justin Shields, a Cedar Rapids labor leader and city council member. Team Hillary will probably elect one man and one woman.
Edwards is expected to elect one male delegate; political science professor Dave Redlawsk is Johnson County's candidate. These contests often come down to the relative strength of counties, but a strong candidate, such as Myers, can draw cross-county support.
9:55 and Harkin just finished speaking; see separate story.
In addition to the hight profile delegate and state central committee races, one other job that's chosen here is presidential elector. Well, that's what people call it, anyway. It's actually the Democratic candidates for elector; you only get to be an actual elector, one of the 538 people who actually vote for president, if the Democrats win Iowa. Slayton Thompson of Cedar Rapids is running and has done the job before; he has an entire collection of old campaign pins on his vest.
Another national delegate candidate has emerged in the Obama camp: Peggy Whitworth of Cedar Rapids.
"It looks better percentage-wise for Hillary that it did in Linn County," says Justin Shields, comparing strength at the county and district conventions. Obama was strong in Linn County; Clinton's strength was in the souther part of the district. Shields isn't looking ahead to the fall campaign yet: "we've got too many primaries in Linn County."
Just under the surface, there's a few simmering tempers. Clinton supporter Barbara Seinfeld of Fairfield complains about the People for Peace and Justice in the Middle East table. "She's misrepresenting the truth. There is no such thing as Palestine. It's Israel." She says Clinton's support of Israel is "a major reason" she's supporting the New York senator.
While I'm at it, let's get back to that flag fight in the aisle. "It torques my jaw" that Obama doesn't wear a flag pin, said Tom Hill of Fairfax. "All my Republican friends are talking about it." Hill says he won't vote for Obama in the fall and will instead vote for "somebody white." He says that's different than saying he won't vote for a black candidate.
Cathy Tullis of Wapello County is also upset about the flag, but not as vehement as Hill. "Of course" she'll vote for Obama if he's the candidate, "but that doesn't mean I'll be happy." Neither Tullis or Hill was wearing a pin.
10:30. Alternate seating time. "Not everyone is being seated," yells DJ Arnold, meaning Obama will fill all his seats.
"We went through the smallest and furthest counties first," says Obama group chair Sue Dvorsky. "If a small county had five or six people, we tried to seat two or three. We tried to gender balance. We split up couples so one of you can go."
"We know we're viable," says Edwards chair Dave Redlawsk. Seating's not done but Redlawsk thinks Edwards also has more alternates than seats.
10:54 Team Hillary also says they have all their seats filled. All three campaigns did triage in advance and ranked their alternates; the higher-ranked alternates were seated first. Objectivity disclaimer: My name turned up at #15 on the Obama list so now I'm a delegate. Won't let it compromise my journalistic integrity.
The math has not been announced but it appears the Obama 4, Clinton 2, Edwards 1 math will hold. "Nothing will change unless there's a few traitors," says Tom Carsner of Team Edwards, who offers colorful suggestions on what should be done to traitors.
11:00 and candidates for state central committee are speaking. Another national delegate candidate pops up; Marcus Perkins of Iowa City.
"We're trying to keep the scratches down to a minimum," says convention chair Norm Sterzenbach Sr., extending Harkin's cat metaphor. The convention is at ease for lunch at 11:30, and the lunchroom-lobby is jammed while the hall is nearly empty.
Norm is running for state central committee, as is Al Bohanan of West Branch. "Sharon Savage is a great candidate," says Bohanan of the challenger in Senate District 40. "(GOP incumbent) Jim Hahn should be worried."
High noon. Edwards supporter Paul Deaton of Solon, counting the lunch money, says he doesn't expect any Edwards defectors. "At the (Johnson) county convention, you practically had to testify you were staying with Edwards," he sais. "That was a key concern when we went to vote." In Johnson, Obama and Clinton elected delegates through the put your hand down to be an alternate system, but the Edwards group went to the pre-printed strips of numbered paper that old convention hands call "railroad ballots." "They used to be in double rows like a railroad track," explains Paul Osterholt of North Liberty.
At the People for Peace and Justice in the Middle East table, I catch the other side of Barbara Seinfeld's story. "This woman came by and ripped our sign down," said Bill Pusateri. "Another woman brought it back and apologized." Everyone at the table says they support Obama, though some are reluctant to make this a candidate vs. candidate thing.
"You don't expect behavior like that from a Democratic crowd," said Pusateri. "It's childish and disrespectful."
12:30 and back in business. Credentials announces all 573 seats are filled. Never happened ever before. Mount Vernon's hometown hero Dave Loebsack is on site and scheduled to speak soon.
Tom Hill, who made the very strongly worded comments about Obama this morning, catches me in the bathroom. "I shouldn't have talked to you," he says, with a tone of regret. But in the end, he says, "I said what I meant."
Tim Judd of North Liberty, also a Clinton supporter, is more positive. "The party will need to unite, and that's what we'll do" if Clinton is not the candidate. Judd says the mood is good in the Clinton camp. "The superdelegates will work in our favor in the end."
12:43 and Loebsack is on.
"If we can get 573 people to a district convention, I'm not all that concerned, because it means we have a lot of people ready to elect a Democrat to the White House."
"Proud of our whole Democratic delegation"; namechecks Boswell among the rest.
"Things are moving in the right direction in Iowa, the question now is are we going to improve on the majority in the House of Representatives, and build the majority in the Senate? The last thing we want is John McCain. We need either Barack or Hillary."
"No matter who wins the nomination, we're going to be unified. We can't afford 4 or 8 more years of George W. Bush. I want a president who won't veto the legislation we passed."
Pushing timelines on Iraq. "We need a recommitment to Afghanistan, because that's really where the problems are."
"It took 10 years to reauthorize Head Start. It took a new Congress."
"Whether it's Hillary or Barack, SCHIP is going to be fully funded."
"No matter what happens, Iowa is going to stay first in the nation. Whether it's Barack or Hillary, we did our job in Iowa on Jan. 3" Scattered applause when he mentioned being a Bill Bradley national delegate in 2000. He namechecks "the bloggers here in the front row."
"I want you to be behind the Democratic nominee, whether it's he or she, to finish what we started in 2006."
Norm Sterzenbach Sr. "Now you've heard from 4 of our 11 superdelegates. Do you still believe the media when they call these people crazy people in the back room?"
At 1:26 the convention is in stall mode, hearing from presidential campaign surrogates. From Team Hillary, it's former secretary of state Elaine Baxter; attorney Steve Sovern is representing for Obama. Seems like an odd use of time: with the most committed of the most attended in attendance, ain't nobody changin' their minds. Still no Official announcement of the alignment count. It looks like a long day, folks.
One possible reason for the stall is a labor caucus, where they're shaking out the surplus of state central committee candidates.
And there's even more national delegate candidates for Obama: Veronica Tessler of Iowa City, Fred Seay of Lee County. The convention debates how long the Edwards speaker can speak... for longer than the Edwards speaker actually speaks.
"They were trying to count automated and it didn't work," Dave Redlawsk tells me, unofficially of course. The delay seems to be getting exact totals from the preference groups, even though everybody seems to know who's where. "I hope they can count the voting ballots faster that the preference ballots," says Redlawsk, with a be-sure-to-write-that wag of the finger.
Yet another Obama national delegate candidate: Dale Todd of Cedar Rapids.
2:49 and the first actual ballot of the day is underway. Male state central committee members. Three seats, 12 candidates, no more than two can be elected on one ballot.
"Our hope is things will go like Pennsylvania," Elaine Baxter of Team Hillary tells me, as the youth delegates endorse Obama. "She's getting better as a canddate and is on an upward trajectory. It's exciting," says Baxter.
But what if it's Obama after all? Will Clinton's supporters come along? "I think they will," says Baxter, "but it's going to be difficult. They are so enthused and convinced that she is the right person."
Sterzenbach has a folksy style as the convention chair. Asked about timekeeping, he says he's been keeping time but forgotten the start button once or twice. "When I was awake, everyone was within the time limit." Of course, the longer speeches have more lull one to sleep potential.
As we vote on female state central committee members, tempers are bubbling. Asked to line the candidates up yet one more time, Harvey Ross of the rules committee says, "when we reopened nominations, we guaranteed this convention will go until 10:30 p.m. How much longer do you want it to go?"
Objection is raised that this discriminates against "people who have difficulty retaining information," which may cover pretty much everyone in the hall. But this is voted down, and we forge ahead into platform discussion.
Sandy Dockendorff of the state central committee says roughly three hours were added to the day when nominations were reopened for the state central committee because the initial candidates "didn't appear diverse enough." She's not bothered by the additional competition, but is frustrated by the process.
Karen Laughlin suggests "The News" by Carbon Silicon, a London punk band, as an Obama theme song. As an old Clash fan, I'm up for anything London and punk, so I try to check it out. But The Mount Vernon School District has YouTube blocked. (Also Blogger, so I can't crosspost on my personal site or check some of our better Iowa blogs for news from other districts.)
3:48 and preference groups will happen soon. I hear an implausible number and ask Senator Bob Dvorsky: "How many Obama candidates for national delegate?"
"84."
"Don't you have to petition for that?"
"Yeah, but it's only like six signatures."
Team Obama is discussing how to lower that number, such as discussing diversity guidelines and noting that delegate expenses could run up to $2000. (Unions commonly help members pay their way, and other delegates have had fundraisers in the past."
84 candidates for four seats. That's like the California governor recall. Harvey Ross's 10:30 p.m. estimate is looking optimistic. Postscript: It was; folks were there till after 1 a.m.
As we break into preference groups at 4:00, some grumbling from folks on the platform committee and affirmative action committee, who want to finish their business first. (The unspoken fear: that folks will leave after the national delegate stuff is done.) (Postscript: That fear was well-founded; by the time I left at 10:30, the 573 delegates had dwindled to rounghly 150.)
Delegate election is separated by gender; men and women elected separately. Obama will have two men, two women. Speakers will have a minute, which means an hour and 24 minutes. "If you are not 300% committed to being a delegate, I'd encourage you to withdraw," says an Obama staffer. "We certainly aren't discouraging people from participating," disclaims Bob Dvorsky.
If everybody stays in, those who get less than 15 percent on the first ballot get dropped.
In the Clinton room, 46 people are seeking two spots, though some are withdrawing. Edwards has 12 men seeking one seat.
The line of candidates for Obama national delegate, waiting for their one minute turn to speak.
Back in the Obama room, people are getting applause as they withdraw. Not many are. Only 16 take their names off, leaving 68 and over an hour of speeches. A lot of the speeches begin, "This is my first time participating." Usually, across the whole state, one person with such a profile wins; most national delegates are long-time activists or elected officials.
In the Edwards room, one person has dropped off, leaving 11. The Clinton camp was still going through the drop-out process. One Obama person has an androgynous name, which causes problems when you're electing men and women separately.
The most dedicated delegate appears to be Sam Hoheneke of Muscatine; he says the Obama logo tattooed on his hip is the real thing.
5:53 and the Edwards group reports that they've narrowed from 11 people to five after one ballot. My wife has made her third "honey, when are you coming home?" call. In a nice way. I'm afraid to tell her about the 1996 state convention that ran until 4 a.m.
The Clinton group has voted on delegates and moved on to state convention committees; Obama is getting ready to vote. One candidate drops out at the mike; gets a Dick Myers endorsement out before being told that's out of order, but he rang that bell already.
As of 7 p.m. there's a significant attrition level in the Obama room, which no longer matters since the delegates are allocated. The concession stand is closed, so we're at the phase of a convention where victory on platforms and non-delegate offices comes down to who can sit the longest. (Postscript: pizzas appeared later in the evening.)
The Obama group has cast a second ballot on female delegates.
At 8:23 p.m. the two Obama male delegates are announced: Dick Myers and Angel Gonzales, both of Johnson County.
Two minutes later, on the third ballot, the Edwards group elects Dave Redlawsk, so Johnson County gets at least three national delegates.
Donald Schaefer and Kathy Krehbiel are the Clinton delegates. The ballots for Obama women are still in the third round of counting.
8:38 and the Obama women are Peggy Whitworth of Linn County and Sandra Pope of Wapello County. They led strongly from the first ballot on, but it took three rounds to get a majority.
Voting on state central committee continues at 9:27. I'm trying to see how the national blogs are playing Iowa, but the school has Daily Kos, MyDD, and Talking Points Memo all blocked.
About ten people have decided to run for presidential elector (actually presidential elector candidate), which has never really been a big deal before.
The platform is adopted at 10:12 p.m. The last person I promised a vote to (Iowa Independent's own Lynda Waddington of the state central committee) got re-elected, so this is my final report for the day. Thanks for watching.
Abolish Superdelegates, Don't Seat Rulebreaking StatesSenator Tom Harkin told 2nd Congressional District delegates at this morning's convention that he's still staying neutral in the nomination fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
The senator also said rulebreaking states should not be counted at the national convention, and he hopes superdelegates are abolished.
Key quotes from Harkin's speech, the first of five he'll deliver at all of today's conventions:
"I am determined to stay neutral as a superdelegate until all of the people's votes have been counted. We set up rules. Every state signed off, so every state ought to have their say."
"That also means that states who do not abide by the rules shoud not be counted." Partial standing ovation from most delegates.
"I"ve never even been comfortable being a superdelegate, hopefully the convention will get rid of them." Applause.
"Some of you are passionate for Barack, some of you are passionate for Hillary, but once our nomination is decided we ought to put our differences aside and be a united party."
Rolling into an extended metaphor about farm cats. "All that screeching and yowling just means there's gonna be more cats." With this he touts the Dem's voter registration edge. "Together, we are unstoppable."
The remarks on the presidential race concluded Harkin's speech. Before that, he bashed Republican John McCain a bit and made his own case as he faces re-electon
"Instead of lowering our standards for recruiting privates and corporals, how about raising our standards for recruiting our next commander in chief."
McCain 5 word health care plan: "Pray you don't get sick."
"Change is not something that blows with the wind. A weathervane changes every day. Change needs to be rooted in values." This launched his case for himself. "I want to use my seniority to help a new Democratic congress and a new Democratic president." He did not name either name.
Massive standing ovation to "End this nutty war in Irag and bring our troops home." Audience then hushed as he discusses the troops. Namechecks Boswell on the Omvig suicide prevention bill.
"I may a bit grayer, and I hope wiser, than when some of us first met. But I have the same fighting spirit when it comes to standing up for Iowa values."
The Ed Fallon-Leonard Boswell race isn't the only Iowa congressional primary where party loyalty and campaign finance have become issues. A six-year-old campaign donation has become a point of contention between the three Republicans running in the 2nd Congressional District.
Fallon was among many people on the left end of the Democratic Party frustrated by Gore's choice of conservative Sen. Joe Lieberman, who supported Republican efforts to impeach Bill Clinton, as his running mate. History has proven those concerns to be prescient, as Lieberman bolted the Democratic party after losing his 2006 Senate primary, then defeated Democratic nominee Ned Lamont in the general election. That is the same kind of "nonsupport of the party" that got Fallon kicked off the Polk County Democratic central committee in 2001, yet Lieberman, calling himself an "independent Democrat," sits in the U.S. Senate Democratic caucus today.
Other liberal activists were annoyed by Gore's role in the Parent's Music Resource Council (PMRC) hearings of 1985, where Tipper Gore crusaded against Prince lyrics and faced spirited, circus-like rebuttals from Dee Snider of Twisted Sister and from Frank Zappa. Al Gore never distanced himself from the music labeling issue, and even bragged about his wife's efforts near the end of his final 2000 debate with Bush:"When (our oldest daughter) was little, she brought a record home that had some awful lyrics in it. And Tipper hit the ceiling. And that launched a campaign to try to get the record companies to put ratings that -- warning labels for parents. And I'm so proud of what she accomplished in getting them on there."
He won UI senior Jane Anderson's vote with this sentiment and others, she said.
"I was going to vote for Gore because he is not as supportive of big business as Bush," she said. "After this (rally), my vote goes to Nader."
"I've worked for the election of every Democratic presidential candidate since Harry Truman in 1948. I've run for the U.S. Senate from Iowa as a Democrat. I've run for Congress as a Democrat. I've held three presidential appointments in the administrations of U.S. Presidents who were Democrats. I've worked on a Democratic National Committee project and held virtually every position within the Johnson County Democrats.
So I have no intention of putting George W. Bush in the White House."
"AT&T, Phillip Morris, Microsoft, Federal Express, Anheuser-Busch, Pfizer, Time Warner. Ever heard of any of them? Well, there are 59 more I don't have time to list. These corporations don't care which of their nominees wins. They're not in this for the ideology. They're in it for the return on investment."
"That's how we got regulation of banks and railroads, a progressive income tax, the eight-hour workday, direct popular election of U.S. senators, workers' compensation, limitations on child labor, the women's right to vote, and the right to collective bargaining."
"If seven electoral votes could make the difference in who becomes president check the latest Iowa polls. Is the popular vote in Iowa likely to be close?
Only if you answer all of those questions "yes" do you need to be concerned that your vote for Nader risks putting someone you fear in the White House.
If there's a big spread on the national electoral votes, or the Iowa popular vote, it's a free vote for you.
It is voting for Bush or Gore that becomes a wasted vote.
It's the vote for Nader that's not wasted. The vote that's registered as a meaningful protest. A demand for campaign finance reform. For returning American democracy from the corporations to the people."
Vice President Gore would have easily won had he held the support of Democrats. There were many multiples more Democrats who voted for Bush than there were Democrats who voted for Nader. And more than half of those who voted for Nader were either Republicans or indicated that, but for Nader, they would not have voted at all.
'Never mind that,' said the party’s apologists, 'It’s all Nader’s fault.'
This year [2004] the Democrats don’t have Nader, or anyone else, to scapegoat.
The die will be cast once delegate seating and realignment are completed, by mid-afternoon. After that, the math is complete and the delegates are allocated. The lengthiest battles are not between campaigns, but within campaigns, as district delegates struggle through multiple ballots to decide who actually gets to take the coveted trip to the August national convention in Denver.
Delegates will also choose party officers and debate the platform, though platform debate has simmered down in the past decade as the party has tightened restrictions on the length of the final platform.
Before we plunge into the district numbers, here's how it works. On caucus night, caucus goers elected delegates to county conventions, which were held Mar. 15. Those county conventions elected the delegates who will attend Saturday's conventions, and Saturday's conventions will choose national delegates. The number of district delegates, and national delegates, in each district is determined by past voting performance. Another 16 national delegates will be chosen at the June 14 state convention.Now let's look at each district. All the viability numbers below assume that every seat is filled, either by a delegate or an alternate. That rarely happens in a normal year, but is quite possible this time. If seats go unfilled, the viability number goes down to 15 percent of the number of filled seats. Think of these numbers as a point spread rather than a final score.
| 1st District Convention, Dubuque | |
| District Delegates | 534 |
| VIABILITY | 81 |
| National Delegates | 6 |
| District Delegates | National Delegates | |
| Clinton | 167 | 2 |
| Edwards/Uncommitted | 79 | ??? |
| Obama | 288 | 3 |
John Edwards won 77 delegates at county conventions, and two uncommitted delegates were elected out of Butler County where Edwards was non-viable. If Edwards fills all his seats, and is joined by those two uncommitteds, and only eight Clinton or Obama seats go unfilled, he could net a national delegate at the Dubuque convention.
But if everyone shows up, Edwards will fall just two people short of viability, and his supporters will determine who gets the district's sixth national delegate. Obama has the edge. He only needs 24 of the Edwards supporters to gain his fourth delegate, while Clinton needs to attract 56 of the 79 Edwards and uncommitted delegates to get a 3-3 national delegate split. The easier road might be to lend people to Edwards, as Nichols reports, to keep the delegate out of Obama's hands.
Edwards' efforts at viability are disadvantaged by the Dubuque location. He was non-viable at the Dubuque county convention, and of the 159 delegates who are from Dubuque or the four adjacent counties, only 12 support Edwards. Most Edwards supporters will have to make the trek up Highway 61 from Scott and Clinton counties.
But Clinton County's Highland Nichols says the Edwards supporters will be in Dubuque. "I've talked to several other county organizers, and at last count I think we can make (viability)," he said. "We'll have all 11 Edwards delegates (from Clinton County) attend or have alternates."
Obama's strength is relatively even across the district, while Clinton is slightly more popular in the counties closer to Dubuque.
"I could live with Hillary a lot easier than Obama" if Edwards falls short, Nichols said. "John Edwards started out talking about change and hope before Obama even announced. I don't think Obama's had an original idea since he's started."
| 2nd District Convention, Mount Vernon | |
| District Delegates | 573 |
| VIABILITY | 86 |
| National Delegates | 7 |
| District Delegates | National Delegates | |
| Clinton | 171 | 2 |
| Edwards/Uncommitted | 107 | 1 |
| Obama | 295 | 4 |
Things are relatively simple in the seven-delegate 2nd District, which will likely shake out Obama 4, Clinton 2, Edwards 1. Edwards forces in the district are well organized and well above viability. "We are anticipating keeping most if not all of our group together, both Johnson County and district-wide," said professor David Redlawsk, Johnson County Edwards chair.
The Mount Vernon location helps Edwards, who was strong in Johnson and Linn Counties, and hurts Clinton, whose was stronger in Lee, Des Moines, and the smaller rural counties in the southern part of the district.
| 3rd District Convention, West Des Moines | |
| District Delegates | 527 |
| VIABILITY | 80 |
| National Delegates | 6 |
| District Delegates | National Delegates | |
| Clinton | 163 | 2 |
| Edwards/Uncommitted | 95 | 1 |
| Obama | 269 | 3 |
Two-thirds of the 3rd District's 527 delegates are from Polk County. With the convention in West Des Moines, that makes geography a minor factor that only slightly aids Obama. The likely outcome is Obama 3, Clinton 2, and Edwards 1. The 3rd District's fireworks are more likely to revolve around the Leonard Boswell-Ed Fallon congressional primary.
| 4th District Convention, Boone | |
| District Delegates | 507 |
| VIABILITY | 77 |
| National Delegates | 6 |
| District Delegates | National Delegates | |
| Clinton | 170 | 2+??? |
| Edwards/Uncommitted | 59 | 0+??? |
| Obama | 278 | 3+??? |
The Edwards and uncommitted forces need to pick up 18 delegates to reach viability. (The six uncommitteds are from Warren County, where Edwards was nonviable at the county convention.) Assuming everyone shows up, either Clinton or Obama could throw Edwards the 18 people he needs, without losing a delegate themselves.
If there are no deals and Edwards is not viable, Obama only needs to pick up 18 Edwards and uncommitted supporters to get a fourth national delegate, while Clinton would need 42 Edwards backers to get a third delegate. Given that math, it seems likely that Clinton would send supporters to Edwards to keep him viable, rather than giving Obama a shot at the fourth delegate.
Longtime party activist Margo McNabb of Story County says Edwards forces are making calls in the 4th District and "I plan to stand for John Edwards" at the convention. McNabb said she didn't have a sense of where Edwards' support would go if he's not viable.
In general, Edwards backers moved heavily to Obama rather than Clinton at county conventions. In the 4th district's Marshall County, Obama dominated the convention three to one when almost all the Edwards delegates joined his group. The question is, how many Obama-leaning Edwards people have already switched, and how much more can Obama gain? Or will Edwards lurkers in the Obama camp go back to their first choice?
Geography helps Obama, as he won heavily in Story County, next door to Boone. A big pool of Story alternates could help fill up empty Obama seats from farther away.
| 5th District Convention, Council Bluffs | |
| District Delegates | 359 |
| VIABILITY | 54 |
| National Delegates | 4 |
| District Delegates | National Delegates | |
| Clinton | 132 | 1 |
| Edwards/Uncommitted | 58 | ??? |
| Obama | 169 | 2 |
The most spread-out district is also the one where who shows up will make the most difference. John Edwards is razor-thin viable. If all 359 seats are filled, Edwards is viable by one seat, with 55 delegates. (There are another three uncommitted delegates from three counties where Edwards was not viable.) He and Clinton would each get one delegate, while Obama would win two.
If Edwards is non-viable, the math favors a 2-2 split. Let's assume Obama and Clinton fill their seats, while Edwards falls just one person short of viability and seats 53 district delegates. Obama would need all 53 to get a third national delegate, and Clinton would need only one to gain the 2-2 split. This makes the tactical game the mirror image of the 1st and 4th Districts; it makes sense here for Obama to lend Edwards people, to deny Clinton the second delegate.
Geography helps Clinton, who was strong in Pottawattamie County. Of the 95 delegates who are from Pottawattamie or bordering counties, she leads Obama 43 delegates to 36, with 16 for Edwards.
“Nobody wonders where I stand,” Congressman Steve King told 2nd Congressional District Republicans Saturday, making a detour out of his own 5th District to rally the eastern Iowa GOP troops at their district convention in Iowa City.
The speeches by King and other party leaders were the highlight of a convention otherwise taken up by election of party officers and platform debate. “I’ll be happy as long as someone throws in eminent domain and property rights” in the platform, said state representative Jeff Kaufmann of Wilton, who has focused on the issue during his two House terms. While he didn’t endorse anyone during the caucuses, Kaufmann says he’s firmly behind McCain. “In my heart, I think he’s the only candidate who gives us a chance and reaches out to independents,” he said.Now Main Street's whitewashed windows and vacant stores
Seems like there ain't nobody wants to come down here no more
They're closing down the textile mill across the railroad tracks
Foreman says these jobs are going boys and they ain't coming back to your hometown
